Head of credit strategy @ Morgan Stanley says greater than 50% chance of Total Financial Market Shutdown

[HeXploiT]

Grey Peters is the head of market strategy for Morgan Stanley.
Listen to what he has to say.

http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/a...cache/vqjAB8ctLx3E.asf


He actually LOOKED nervous just saying that.
How many of you are getting this?
We are in some real trouble.

 

[dahunan]

Our currency isn't worth shit.. too bad .. I guess bushbots will brush this off and say it is just a cycle like Global Warming . and there is nothing man could have done to stop this meltdown

 

[Vic]

Originally posted by: dahunan
Our currency isn't worth shit.. too bad .. I guess bushbots will brush this off and say it is just a cycle like Global Warming . and there is nothing man could have done to stop this meltdown

Please don't troll. Thanks.

 

[compnovice]

I cannot hear a thing... No sound for me

Also it does not play in firefox?

 

[HeXploiT]

Originally posted by: compnovice
I cannot hear a thing... No sound for me

Also it does not play in firefox?

Plays fine for me in firefox. Looks like a realplayer file.

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: Perry404
Topic Title: Head of credit strategy @ Morgan Stanley says greater than 50% chance of Total Financial Market Shutdown

Grey Peters is the head of market strategy for Morgan Stanley.
Listen to what he has to say.

http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/a...cache/vqjAB8ctLx3E.asf


He actually LOOKED nervous just saying that.
How many of you are getting this?
We are in some real trouble.

Old news.

I said this years ago when Bushco and all their supporters in here started this destruction.

How come it's OK for you as a newbie to post this but I get blasted?

 

[OrganizedChaos]

I'm 21 years old. If the market is going to tank I'd like to get it out of the way now.

 

[Jinru]

Originally posted by: dahunan
Our currency isn't worth shit.. too bad .. I guess bushbots will brush this off and say it is just a cycle like Global Warming . and there is nothing man could have done to stop this meltdown

Bush&Co are already denying it.

US President George W. Bush predicted in an interview Tuesday that the battered US dollar will get stronger because the US economy is robust.

"If people would look at the strength of our economy, they'd realize why, you know, I believe that the dollar will be stronger," Bush told the fledgling Fox Business Network.

"We have a strong dollar policy, and it's important for the world to know that. We also believe it's important for the market to set the value of the dollar relative to other currencies," the president said.

Bush cited low US inflation figures, modest interest rates, job growth, and gross domestic product growth and declared "the underpinnings are strong."

Asked whether he was satisfied with current exchange rates, Bush replied: "I am satisfied with the fact that we have a strong dollar policy and know that the market ought to be setting the exchange rate."

http://www.breitbart.com/artic...xkistsc&show_article=1

 

[Jeff7]

Could be a self-fulfilling prophecy. If the bigwigs start saying "OMG DOOOOM!!!!" then it's going to tend to make everyone else nervous. People get nervous, they change their buying and trading habits, switching over to "safer" habits, swaying us away from a bull market. Thus the downswing occurs, just as "predicted."

 

[MustISO]

I'm sure he's (his company) placed all his short stock purchases and now he's just waiting for the money to roll in. Given the way the average person responds to information like this I think it's irresponsible for things like this to be said. All the average investor hears is "major market crash better sell everything".

 

[StageLeft]

Could be a self-fulfilling prophecy. If the bigwigs start saying "OMG DOOOOM!!!!" then it's going to tend to make everyone else nervous. People get nervous, they change their buying and trading habits, switching over to "safer" habits, swaying us away from a bull market. Thus the downswing occurs, just as "predicted."

Yep, once enough people say it it doesn't matter if they were right or not because they will be. The market is entirely driven by speculation on all sides, so once the critical mass is hit, the speculation becomes dictatorial.

 

[MadRat]

Maybe just maybe our markets shouldn't rely on baby boomers bad spending habits when they face mass retirements now. How much are they going to shop when they have their incomes slashed into a fraction of what they had when they worked? Add in the cost of fuel and drop in real estates -which is just putting the brakes on construction - and you have a collection of market miscues. We brought this upon ourselves. We can fix it, too.

 

[LegendKiller]

Originally posted by: Skoorb

Could be a self-fulfilling prophecy. If the bigwigs start saying "OMG DOOOOM!!!!" then it's going to tend to make everyone else nervous. People get nervous, they change their buying and trading habits, switching over to "safer" habits, swaying us away from a bull market. Thus the downswing occurs, just as "predicted."

Yep, once enough people say it it doesn't matter if they were right or not because they will be. The market is entirely driven by speculation on all sides, so once the critical mass is hit, the speculation becomes dictatorial.

Somebody merely saying something doesn't mean it's true. I could say that for every MS, there's 5 Goldman's who took a short interest in the housing problems and will profit immensely. However, that doesn't make it true, many people will believe it for a short time (witness the 320pt increase in the DJIA yesterday), but the long-term fundamentals will true out.

Head of credit strategy? Being a bear? NAW! If any of you guys knew how credit strategies work you might understand what this guy thinks and why he said what he said.

Will the financial markets "shut down", hell no. The financial markets are so massive that subprime, low-prime, or the housing market in general *can't* shut it down. You're talking about multi-trillions of dollars transacting every day in the capital markets. Will individual markets go through duress? Yes, we saw that in the ABCP market 2 months ago and we still even see it in places. However, it's stupid to say that it will "shut down" in general.

It's amausing that, me, as a perrenial bearish person, is trying to moderate discussions around this.

 

[manowar821]

Originally posted by: OrganizedChaos
I'm 21 years old. If the market is going to tank I'd like to get it out of the way now.

I'm 22, and I agree with you. There is a problem though, and it's that I don't think that we'll know for sure until it crashes into us head on.

 

[Capitalizt]

Got gold? Got silver?

Paper is going down the tubes.

 

[GTaudiophile]

I just hope this movie has as big an impact on America as "Super Size Me" did:

http://www.apple.com/trailers/...ent/whatwouldjesusbuy/

It is time for our credit-spending, got-to-have-it-now, impulse buy, greedy, non-saving society to come to an end.

If not, I guess it will take the Great Depression II to get people's attention.

 

[Pabster]

Originally posted by: dahunan
Our currency isn't worth shit.. too bad .. I guess bushbots will brush this off and say it is just a cycle like Global Warming . and there is nothing man could have done to stop this meltdown

Perhaps one could take an argument you make seriously, or at least with some consideration, if you didn't interject "bushbots" and other partisan hackery in nearly every post. :roll:

 

[Jaskalas]

Originally posted by: GTaudiophile
I just hope this movie has as big an impact on America as "Super Size Me" did:

http://www.apple.com/trailers/...ent/whatwouldjesusbuy/

It is time for our credit-spending, got-to-have-it-now, impulse buy, greedy, non-saving society to come to an end.

If not, I guess it will take the Great Depression II to get people's attention.

That's really how nature works. People do bad things, people get bitten, hopefully the next generation remembers the lesson.

 

[jman19]

Originally posted by: Pabster

Originally posted by: dahunan
Our currency isn't worth shit.. too bad .. I guess bushbots will brush this off and say it is just a cycle like Global Warming . and there is nothing man could have done to stop this meltdown

Perhaps one could take an argument you make seriously, or at least with some consideration, if you didn't interject "bushbots" and other partisan hackery in nearly every post. :roll:

Like you're one to talk about partisan hackery :laugh:

 

[blackangst1]

Originally posted by: OrganizedChaos
I'm 21 years old. If the market is going to tank I'd like to get it out of the way now.

Man I envy you. I wish there was a market correction when I was 21. I could have retired by now. My advice? Save and buy.

Most of us have heard the best way to deal with stocks is buy low, sell high. So why is it when the market drops, people get nervous and sell? Isnt that selling high? WTF?

There isnt a knowledgable market analyst that thinks the market will drop more than 20-25%, and MOST are saying 13-18%. It really isnt that big of a deal. Look at it this way...you have an opportunity to buy stocks at probably the best price you will see in the next couple of decades, if not longer. The market is NOT going to crumble. Do you realize what the market represents? It's not just about guys getting rich. It's our country's bread and butter. Look at the top Fortune 500 companies:

1 Wal-Mart Stores
2 Exxon Mobil
3 General Motors
4 Chevron
5 ConocoPhillips
6 General Electric
7 Ford Motor
8 Citigroup
9 Bank of America Corp.
10 American Intl. Group
11 J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.
12 Berkshire Hathaway
13 Verizon Communications
14 Hewlett-Packard
15 Intl. Business Machines
16 Valero Energy
17 Home Depot
18 McKesson
19 Cardinal Health
20 Morgan Stanley
21 UnitedHealth Group
22 Merrill Lynch
23 Altria Group
24 Goldman Sachs Group
25 Procter & Gamble



Now. Do you have any idea whatsoever what would happen if these companies went belly up? It doesnt matter what assets you think you have, it's lights out. Think about it. What's the likelyhood? Look at the last correction of September 2002...DJIA hit a low of 7286, after hitting a high that year of 10632. About a 30% drop. Now mind you this was largely due to the tech bubble bursting, which was actually a good thing. Too many overvalued companies. January of 2003 DJIA was back at about 8300 (15% or so), and by January of 2004 it was at about 10,500 (25% or so. Now look today where we're at. 13,300 or so in a weak market.

Anyway. Think about it. You have a GREAT opportunity here. Dont blow it.

 

[manowar821]

Originally posted by: blackangst1

Originally posted by: OrganizedChaos
I'm 21 years old. If the market is going to tank I'd like to get it out of the way now.

Man I envy you. I wish there was a market correction when I was 21. I could have retired by now. My advice? Save and buy.

Most of us have heard the best way to deal with stocks is buy low, sell high. So why is it when the market drops, people get nervous and sell? Isnt that selling high? WTF?

There isnt a knowledgable market analyst that thinks the market will drop more than 20-25%, and MOST are saying 13-18%. It really isnt that big of a deal. Look at it this way...you have an opportunity to buy stocks at probably the best price you will see in the next couple of decades, if not longer. The market is NOT going to crumble. Do you realize what the market represents? It's not just about guys getting rich. It's our country's bread and butter. Look at the top Fortune 500 companies:

1 Wal-Mart Stores
2 Exxon Mobil
3 General Motors
4 Chevron
5 ConocoPhillips
6 General Electric
7 Ford Motor
8 Citigroup
9 Bank of America Corp.
10 American Intl. Group
11 J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.
12 Berkshire Hathaway
13 Verizon Communications
14 Hewlett-Packard
15 Intl. Business Machines
16 Valero Energy
17 Home Depot
18 McKesson
19 Cardinal Health
20 Morgan Stanley
21 UnitedHealth Group
22 Merrill Lynch
23 Altria Group
24 Goldman Sachs Group
25 Procter & Gamble



Now. Do you have any idea whatsoever what would happen if these companies went belly up? It doesnt matter what assets you think you have, it's lights out. Think about it. What's the likelyhood? Look at the last correction of September 2002...DJIA hit a low of 7286, after hitting a high that year of 10632. About a 30% drop. Now mind you this was largely due to the tech bubble bursting, which was actually a good thing. Too many overvalued companies. January of 2003 DJIA was back at about 8300 (15% or so), and by January of 2004 it was at about 10,500 (25% or so. Now look today where we're at. 13,300 or so in a weak market.

Anyway. Think about it. You have a GREAT opportunity here. Dont blow it.

I know you weren't talking directly to me, but thanks, I'll remember that.

 

[alchemize]

It's either a great buying opportunity, or the end of the world. Folks, if the US economy goes into a free-fall depression, so does the rest of the world, don't kid yourselves. Gold and silver will be just as worthless if you can't get food or gas. This is highly unlikely of course as our country is still tremendously wealthy, even when you factor in the huge public debt.

The OP of course thinks returning to the Gold Standard would prevent that. I think it would trigger that world wide depression.

What we need is fiscal responsibility. And none of the mainstream candidates in either party are even toying with that idea.

 

[yobarman]

And this is the downside of having the world's economy based on "faith in our government" Vote Wiser next time, eh. (that comment really has nothing to do the video though)

The whole subprime thing is a mess, falling dollar is a mess, here we go for a correction!

 

[blackangst1]

Originally posted by: alchemize
It's either a great buying opportunity, or the end of the world. Folks, if the US economy goes into a free-fall depression, so does the rest of the world, don't kid yourselves. Gold and silver will be just as worthless if you can't get food or gas. This is highly unlikely of course as our country is still tremendously wealthy, even when you factor in the huge public debt.

The OP of course thinks returning to the Gold Standard would prevent that. I think it would trigger that world wide depression.

What we need is fiscal responsibility. And none of the mainstream candidates in either party are even toying with that idea.

Alchemize: take a look at the Fortune 500 and tell us which one of those companies realistically will go under. A significant number would have to in order for the economy to completely collapse. It's so unlikely it's almost not even worth talking about

As far as going back to gold standard...thats laughable. We havent been in a gold standard since the 40's.

 

[manowar821]

Originally posted by: alchemize
It's either a great buying opportunity, or the end of the world. Folks, if the US economy goes into a free-fall depression, so does the rest of the world, don't kid yourselves. Gold and silver will be just as worthless if you can't get food or gas. This is highly unlikely of course as our country is still tremendously wealthy, even when you factor in the huge public debt.

The OP of course thinks returning to the Gold Standard would prevent that. I think it would trigger that world wide depression.

What we need is fiscal responsibility. And none of the mainstream candidates in either party are even toying with that idea.

End of the US economy != end of the world

End of the US economy == End of the US economy

Don't be so arrogant to think that the USA is the most important thing in the world, it's far from it.