HD-DVD versus Blu-Ray

[Ricochet]

One thing is for certain. And that is people have underestimated the impact of the PS3. While its numbers may not match up to the Xbox 360 or the Wii (I didn't verify this, just for argument sakes), the PS3 is, however, the number one selling Blu-Ray player. It may have costed Sony some gaming market share but the PS3 allowed Sony to stay ahead in the format war. Everytime Toshiba sold its players at discount, Sony responded with incredible savings on their titles. All the techies will tell you that Blu-Ray discs are more expensive to produce than HD DVD (true), yet we seen these discs sell for $10 a piece, a price point that I haven't even seen on the HD DVD side.

It doesn't matter how cheap the HD DVD players sell for. Studios will look at software sales. They don't care what the PS3 cost or what the Toshiba players cost. They care about if their titles move off the shelf. The longer that Blu-Ray remains ahead, the more confidence studios have in Sony's format. Winning studio support is the key to winning this war. This Christmas lineup is only going to get uglier for the HD DVD camp.

 

[zinfamous]

Originally posted by: cubby1223

Originally posted by: Genx87
Sounds optimistic considering HD-DVD only got things together in the 3rd quarter of 07 and still maintained a ~35% disc market share. Now with sub 200 and eventually sub 150 dollar players they are going to lose ground to a 400 dollar PS3 that requires 5:1 units sales to hold ground?

With China basically adopting the HD-DVD standard for their domestic markets. I only see cheaper and cheaper HD-DVD units arriving and selling at much higher rates than we saw in 07.

I'd say your prediction might have merit if Sony has a profile 1.1 unit on the horizon in the sub 200 market.

Your prediction might have merit if it weren't the exact same prediction made when the HD-A2 dipped below $300 for the first time. How'd that work out? Players have already dipped below $100, and it's not showing results. And the "Christmas gift" argument doesn't hold much weight either, as the January HD DVD release schedule is woefully weak.

of course it makes sense. why would people be buying HD DVDs if they don't have, let alone *know* that they have the players yet?
:roll:

 

[Wreckage]

Originally posted by: Genx87
Sounds optimistic considering HD-DVD only got things together in the 3rd quarter of 07 and still maintained a ~35% disc market share.

You must be forgetting that HD-DVD had 100% of the market last year. So saying they have now rallied to 35% is a bit off.

 

[Eug]

Originally posted by: cubby1223

Originally posted by: Shawn
I am sure the Venturer player will get down to $149.99 in a few weeks, then $119.99 and maybe $99.99 if we are lucky.

So in other words, consumer confidence will be assured by prices dropping 50% a month after introduction.

That argument has been thrown around by some, but it continues to make zero sense.

With each Toshiba price drop, hardware sales have increased dramatically.

Similarly, with the PS3 price drop, hardware sales have increased dramatically.

Originally posted by: Wreckage

Originally posted by: Genx87
Sounds optimistic considering HD-DVD only got things together in the 3rd quarter of 07 and still maintained a ~35% disc market share.

You must be forgetting that HD-DVD had 100% of the market last year. So saying they have now rallied to 35% is a bit off.

The entire run of the HD-A1 was rumoured to be only 70000 units.

 

[destrekor]

Originally posted by: Wreckage

Originally posted by: Genx87
Sounds optimistic considering HD-DVD only got things together in the 3rd quarter of 07 and still maintained a ~35% disc market share.

You must be forgetting that HD-DVD had 100% of the market last year. So saying they have now rallied to 35% is a bit off.

"good news everyone, we're up to 35% market share! But I need you all to forget the old market share."
"what was that?"
"what? oh, 100%. but don't worry, that was only before the pesky Blu-ray people."

 

[cubby1223]

Originally posted by: Eug

Originally posted by: cubby1223

Originally posted by: Shawn
I am sure the Venturer player will get down to $149.99 in a few weeks, then $119.99 and maybe $99.99 if we are lucky.

So in other words, consumer confidence will be assured by prices dropping 50% a month after introduction.

That argument has been thrown around by some, but it continues to make zero sense.

With each Toshiba price drop, hardware sales have increased dramatically.

Similarly, with the PS3 price drop, hardware sales have increased dramatically.

And exactly how does my argument make zero sense? We have never seen a product drop 50% within 1 month of release. Name one. Any. Now I'm sure you'll be able to scrounge around and find something somewhere that fits, but I can guarantee such product was not a success.


The PS3 dropped 17% after 8 months. The HD-A2 has dropped it's msrp just 40% since introduction over a year ago. The clearance $99 sale was done (a) 11 months after release, & (b) as a new product model is replacing it.

Bottom line is, chances the Venturer player drops 50% in price by January (unless HD DVD is dead) is slim at best. Actually, I'll say right now it ain't going to happen.

 

[Genx87]

Your prediction might have merit if it weren't the exact same prediction made when the HD-A2 dipped below $300 for the first time. How'd that work out? Players have already dipped below $100, and it's not showing results. And the "Christmas gift" argument doesn't hold much weight either, as the January HD DVD release schedule is woefully weak.

Give it time, wait for it............

You must be forgetting that HD-DVD had 100% of the market last year. So saying they have now rallied to 35% is a bit off.

Is this supposed to be a serious rebuttle?

 

[Genx87]

With each Toshiba price drop, hardware sales have increased dramatically.

Similarly, with the PS3 price drop, hardware sales have increased dramatically.

It doesnt make sense. Why would a consumer lose confidence and stop buying a product because it has a lower price? Simple economics show time and time again. The cheaper the product, the more volume it moves.

 

[cubby1223]

Originally posted by: Genx87

Your prediction might have merit if it weren't the exact same prediction made when the HD-A2 dipped below $300 for the first time. How'd that work out? Players have already dipped below $100, and it's not showing results. And the "Christmas gift" argument doesn't hold much weight either, as the January HD DVD release schedule is woefully weak.

Give it time, wait for it............

You know, I looked at the Best Buy flier and they had the BDP-S300 and the HD-A3 side by side. Guess what. $100 price difference. $399 vs. $299. By the way, the 40gb PS3 & Sharp BD-HP20 both profile 1.1 players at $399 as well.

I looked up Amazon just for kicks. HD-A3, HD-A2, and Samsung BD-P1400. Guess what. Same $100 price difference. $230 vs. $250 vs. $330.

 

[cubby1223]

Originally posted by: Genx87

With each Toshiba price drop, hardware sales have increased dramatically.

Similarly, with the PS3 price drop, hardware sales have increased dramatically.

It doesnt make sense. Why would a consumer lose confidence and stop buying a product because it has a lower price? Simple economics show time and time again. The cheaper the product, the more volume it moves.

Reading comprehension.

I never said because it has a lower price. I said because of a price drop of 50% within 1 month of release. Name me any product anywhere that has seen such a price drop so quickly.



I toss out an easy softball for you guys. Let's say Sony drops the price of the PS3 from $599 to $299 last December after being introduced just one month earlier. Think about what that says to those who bought launch PS3s, and those possibly buying a PS3 after the price drop.

 

[PurdueRy]

Originally posted by: cubby1223

Originally posted by: Genx87

With each Toshiba price drop, hardware sales have increased dramatically.

Similarly, with the PS3 price drop, hardware sales have increased dramatically.

It doesnt make sense. Why would a consumer lose confidence and stop buying a product because it has a lower price? Simple economics show time and time again. The cheaper the product, the more volume it moves.

Reading comprehension.

I never said because it has a lower price. I said because of a price drop of 50% within 1 month of release. Name me any product anywhere that has seen such a price drop so quickly.



I toss out an easy softball for you guys. Let's say Sony drops the price of the PS3 from $599 to $299 last December after being introduced just one month earlier. Think about what that says to those who bought launch PS3s, and those possibly buying a PS3 after the price drop.

Not 50%....but the closest one I can think of is the Apple iPhone. Dropping from $599 to $399 in I believe about a month.

Edit: just looked it up...60 days

 

[PurdueRy]

Originally posted by: cubby1223

Originally posted by: Genx87

Your prediction might have merit if it weren't the exact same prediction made when the HD-A2 dipped below $300 for the first time. How'd that work out? Players have already dipped below $100, and it's not showing results. And the "Christmas gift" argument doesn't hold much weight either, as the January HD DVD release schedule is woefully weak.

Give it time, wait for it............

You know, I looked at the Best Buy flier and they had the BDP-S300 and the HD-A3 side by side. Guess what. $100 price difference. $399 vs. $299. By the way, the 40gb PS3 & Sharp BD-HP20 both profile 1.1 players at $399 as well.

I looked up Amazon just for kicks. HD-A3, HD-A2, and Samsung BD-P1400. Guess what. Same $100 price difference. $230 vs. $250 vs. $330.

$100 price difference might be negligible to some but that's a 43% increase in price. $100 is much easier to swallow when its a TV worth $2000 where that price increase for the different model is 5%.

 

[cubby1223]

Originally posted by: PurdueRy
Not 50%....but the closest one I can think of is the Apple iPhone. Dropping from $599 to $399 in I believe about a month.

Edit: just looked it up...60 days

I mentioned them in a post last page. The iPhone dropped 33% after 2 months and 1 million sold. Not 50% after 1 month and possibly 100k sold. Even Apple came under fire for it, and gave out $100 credits to buyers. But you can do things like that when you're Apple, and you've sold 1 million units covering most if not all R&D costs.

 

[Genx87]

Originally posted by: cubby1223

Originally posted by: Genx87

Your prediction might have merit if it weren't the exact same prediction made when the HD-A2 dipped below $300 for the first time. How'd that work out? Players have already dipped below $100, and it's not showing results. And the "Christmas gift" argument doesn't hold much weight either, as the January HD DVD release schedule is woefully weak.

Give it time, wait for it............

You know, I looked at the Best Buy flier and they had the BDP-S300 and the HD-A3 side by side. Guess what. $100 price difference. $399 vs. $299. By the way, the 40gb PS3 & Sharp BD-HP20 both profile 1.1 players at $399 as well.

I looked up Amazon just for kicks. HD-A3, HD-A2, and Samsung BD-P1400. Guess what. Same $100 price difference. $230 vs. $250 vs. $330.

That 100 bucks == a magnitude more potential customers. And there are enough 199 and lower sales around to really push the sales difference.

Ask nvidia how many more units they push in the 230 range compared to the 330 range. And compare them to the sub 200 range.

We are talking tens to one.

btw that Sharp player is 369, not 330. And from what I can find, it is not profile 1.1 but old 1.0.

 

[Eug]

Originally posted by: cubby1223
I toss out an easy softball for you guys. Let's say Sony drops the price of the PS3 from $599 to $299 last December after being introduced just one month earlier. Think about what that says to those who bought launch PS3s, and those possibly buying a PS3 after the price drop.

If the PS3 had dropped to $299 in December last year, I would have bought one.

 

[destrekor]

Originally posted by: Eug

Originally posted by: cubby1223
I toss out an easy softball for you guys. Let's say Sony drops the price of the PS3 from $599 to $299 last December after being introduced just one month earlier. Think about what that says to those who bought launch PS3s, and those possibly buying a PS3 after the price drop.

If the PS3 had dropped to $299 in December last year, I would have bought one.

yea cubby, I sadly gotta agree with Eug and the rest here. A price drop, to me, isn't going to signify any kind of problems, regardless of how long after introduction it was.
however, none of us here can really be classified as a general consumer, as we all follow technology and will probably know or have a good guess at the reasons behind any price changes. however, I'm not sure what the general walmart shopper is going to say. they probably won't understand, probably are thinking, wow sweet sale! and proceed to buy the product merely because it's cheaper than they thought it was would be. I don't think most people are gonna stop and think "hmm. it was double this cost a month ago. what's going on here? is something wrong with it?" and those that do will probably go find an employee who will be equally as clueless. they may or may not make the purchase from there. i doubt many consumers will be turned away by a lower price, even if that permanently lower price comes a month after product introduction.

 

[cliftonite]

Micheal Bay chimes in on the HD politics:

What you don't understand is corporate politics. Microsoft wants both formats to fail so they can be heroes and make the world move to digital downloads. That is the dirty secret no one is talking about. That is why Microsoft is handing out $100 million dollar checks to studios just embrace the HD DVD and not the leading, and superior Blu Ray. They want confusion in the market until they perfect the digital downloads. Time will tell and you will see the truth.

Link

 

[galperi1]

yay!!! Another Blu-Ray B1G1 from Amazon. This time on 34 WB titles!

WB B1G1

 

[PurdueRy]

Originally posted by: cliftonite
Micheal Bay chimes in on the HD politics:

What you don't understand is corporate politics. Microsoft wants both formats to fail so they can be heroes and make the world move to digital downloads. That is the dirty secret no one is talking about. That is why Microsoft is handing out $100 million dollar checks to studios just embrace the HD DVD and not the leading, and superior Blu Ray. They want confusion in the market until they perfect the digital downloads. Time will tell and you will see the truth.

Link

Michael Bay is paranoid.

 

[Wreckage]

Originally posted by: cliftonite
Micheal Bay chimes in on the HD politics:

What you don't understand is corporate politics. Microsoft wants both formats to fail so they can be heroes and make the world move to digital downloads. That is the dirty secret no one is talking about. That is why Microsoft is handing out $100 million dollar checks to studios just embrace the HD DVD and not the leading, and superior Blu Ray. They want confusion in the market until they perfect the digital downloads. Time will tell and you will see the truth.

Link

He's probably right. Xbox Live Marketplace.

 

[destrekor]

Originally posted by: PurdueRy

Originally posted by: cliftonite
Micheal Bay chimes in on the HD politics:

What you don't understand is corporate politics. Microsoft wants both formats to fail so they can be heroes and make the world move to digital downloads. That is the dirty secret no one is talking about. That is why Microsoft is handing out $100 million dollar checks to studios just embrace the HD DVD and not the leading, and superior Blu Ray. They want confusion in the market until they perfect the digital downloads. Time will tell and you will see the truth.

Link

Michael Bay is paranoid.

nah. he is actually pretty sensible in his posts. i like the guy

 

[zinfamous]

Originally posted by: PurdueRy

Originally posted by: cliftonite
Micheal Bay chimes in on the HD politics:

What you don't understand is corporate politics. Microsoft wants both formats to fail so they can be heroes and make the world move to digital downloads. That is the dirty secret no one is talking about. That is why Microsoft is handing out $100 million dollar checks to studios just embrace the HD DVD and not the leading, and superior Blu Ray. They want confusion in the market until they perfect the digital downloads. Time will tell and you will see the truth.

Link

Michael Bay is paranoid.

He's clearly insane. Or it could be that he's just bi-polar, Multiple personality, whatever. Every comment he makes regarding this war contradicts his previous claims.

If you didn't already realize it from watching his films, he's made a pretty strong case through the media that he is, in fact, nuts.

 

[JC86]

the problem is that to force everyone who wants to watch the content available for download to buy an xbox 360 is a hard sell. That conspiracy theory does present an interesting scenario. I wouldn't put it past Microsoft considering how I don't know how they will profit directly from HDDVD beating BD. I could be wrong but I don't think they're going to get any royalties from the deal.

 

[Shawn]

Originally posted by: JC86
the problem is that to force everyone who wants to watch the content available for download to buy an xbox 360 is a hard sell. That conspiracy theory does present an interesting scenario. I wouldn't put it past Microsoft considering how I don't know how they will profit directly from HDDVD beating BD. I could be wrong but I don't think they're going to get any royalties from the deal.

Uhh, Microsoft created HDi. It is in their interest for HD DVD to succeed.

 

[cubby1223]

...that's what I get for not checking if the Bay quote was posted already, so edited out