Have hard drives improved over the years?

[LOL_Wut_Axel]

Define "anytime soon"; as far as I'm concerned for general storage of OS/apps/consumer data (not video, digital data), it's already just a year or two from death's door.

The SSD has so many advantages over old spinny disks; rather than focusing on straight MB/s (new disks are 145MB/s, I see you say), I think you should focus on IOPS, as this is a more typical consumer situation. Rather than doing single linear copies (reads or writes) of data, most consumers have multiple things happening at once on the disks, and this is where the old hard drives just get crucified compared to SSDs.

Highly, highly doubt it. SSDs are taking a LONG time to improve in terms of GB/$, and this is the main reason why they're taking so much to be adopted by the general public. Almost all people who I've asked who are not enthusiasts that know about SSDs have told me that they're too expensive and too low in storage capacity. SSDs will become a bit more popular when they're widely available at 1GB/$, but still not enough to reach mainstream users. Why? Because they'll still be very limited in storage capacity. For SSDs to become mainstream, they need to be available cheap starting at 120GB capacities, the minimum for the average person to be able to store a decent amount of things.

As we're talking now, though, it's definitely not gonna happen soon. The mainstream user will not give up so much storage capacity, and most don't want to have two separate disk drives (one for OS and most important apps, and one for everything else). SSDs may very well be available in good quantities at 1GB/$ next year, but that's not nearly enough. That's still $120 for a 120GB drive, something most mainstream users will not be willing to pay. When you can get a 120GB drive for the cost of most Hard Drives, though, ($50-60), then they'll become a good amount more popular since they're more reliable and a lot faster. That doesn't mean they're gonna be mainstream by then, though.

Here lies the problem:

Most Hard Drives are fast enough for the mainstream user now, and are continuing to get faster. This year we should get 4TB Hard Drives, and engineers have already said that using current manufacturing techniques they can get around 10TB with almost no problems. That, and because of higher platter density and engineering tweaks they'll get faster. Let's say two years from now a mainstream customer enters the store and asks regarding Hard Drives and is also given the option for an SSD. He has a budget of $50 and sees 2TB 7200RPM HDDs and a 120/128GB SSDs for the same price. He'll probably still go for the Hard Drive even though it's a lot slower (though still decently fast) because he wouldn't have to worry about storing all his files.

I think SSDs will become mainstream--as in, selling more than Hard Drives--in 5 years because, by then, they'll have decent storage capacity for a low price (e.g. 512GB for $50). Hard Drives will not be anywhere near dead, though, since for the same price you'll probably be able to get something like a 10TB 7200RPM HDD for the same price, and that could be useful for users that have tons of media.

I know someone will mention SSDs having the advantage of being 2.5", so change the 2TB 7200RPM 3.5" for a 750GB 7200RPM 2.5", and 10TB 7200RPM 3.5" for 3TB 7200RPM 2.5". The argument is still the same, though. SSDs are much faster and more reliable, but they give too low storage capacity and cost too much as of now. By some five years from now, though, I think they'll be quite good in both aspects, and will sell more than HDDs.

Personally, I'll wait until they get to 1GB/$ until I snatch one. $80 for an 80GB SSD doesn't sound bad for an enthusiast.

 

[dclive]

Can't agree. Already SSDs are the only option in some consumer laptops (MBA being amongst the first), speculation is next-gen MBP lineup will be mostly SSD. iMac already SSD as option, only a matter of time for the rest to take place. Won't take anywhere close to 5 years.

 

[LOL_Wut_Axel]

Can't agree. Already SSDs are the only option in some consumer laptops (MBA being amongst the first), speculation is next-gen MBP lineup will be mostly SSD. iMac already SSD as option, only a matter of time for the rest to take place. Won't take anywhere close to 5 years.

One, MBAs are nowhere near being mainstream. They make a niche market in Apple's MacBook lineup, which is already a niche. Apple is less than 5% of the worldwide market. Mainstream consumers are not gonna be spending $1000 or more on laptops. iMacs and all-in-ones aren't anywhere near mainstream, either. Not good examples at all.

What Apple does in the market of computers is mostly irrelevant except for a few things as we've been able to see from past history. The same cannot be said for their consumer products like the iPod and iPhone, though, since they've had a huge impact.

 

[dclive]

Again, can't agree. Analysts are saying MBA sales as a percentage of Mac portable sales is 17% in 2010 and may hit 48% in 2011 (http://www.electronista.com/articles/11/06/21/ssd.based.notebooks.still.industry.minority/). That's not niche anymore.

iPod and iPhone and iPad storage methods, for the win, please?

 

[dclive]

And if you're curious, I think the analysts are being too conservative on the 2014 SSD figures of only 30%. But that's just 2.5 years away, at 30%....

 

[LOL_Wut_Axel]

Again, can't agree. Analysts are saying MBA sales as a percentage of Mac portable sales is 17% in 2010 and may hit 48% in 2011 (http://www.electronista.com/articles/11/06/21/ssd.based.notebooks.still.industry.minority/). That's not niche anymore.

iPod and iPhone and iPad storage methods, for the win, please?

48% of under 5% is still almost nothing. Still a very small niche.

iPod, iPhone and iPad use Flash memory, albeit much slower ones than what we see in normal SSDs. They're limited by USB in terms of performance, and therefore are the same speed as 1.8" HDDs. They're used there because of higher reliability (shock resistance mostly) and because they don't produce vibrations; nothing else.

Apple enforcing something on their computers means almost nothing. Again, the average consumer will not pay $1000 or over for a computer. I'm talking about the mainstream consumer, and I made very sure to point that out in my post. Too bad some people can't seem to comprehend something that was clearly written, though.

 

[LOL_Wut_Axel]

And if you're curious, I think the analysts are being too conservative on the 2014 SSD figures of only 30%. But that's just 2.5 years away, at 30%....

You think so because you don't really seem to understand the needs of the mainstream/average consumer.

 

[dclive]

If you believe it's a small niche, that's fine - but originally you said SSD was a niche of a niche - MBA was a niche of a small Mac portable market. Clearly, that's not the case.

What makes you write I don't understand the needs of the mainstream/average consumer, aside from your need to make personal attacks?

 

[LOL_Wut_Axel]

If you believe it's a small niche, that's fine - but originally you said SSD was a niche of a niche - MBA was a niche of a small Mac portable market. Clearly, that's not the case.

What makes you write I don't understand the needs of the mainstream/average consumer, aside from your need to make personal attacks?

I suggest you get some help if you think saying "I don't think you understand the needs of the average consumer" is a personal attack.

I didn't say SSD was a niche of a niche. For it to be a niche of a niche Hard Drives would need to be a niche, which they're obviously not. The MacBook Air is a small niche of overall MacBooks sold, so my statement is accurate. That may not be the case in some years, but I was arguing over now. Even if it's not, though, that's doesn't mean anything. Macs have been stuck in terms of growth for 2-3 years now, and they're not hitting over 5% worldwide. Taking into account the MBA would be 48% of all portable Mac sales makes it's still a very small niche. Again, Macs make a very small niche in the market.

 

[dclive]

I suggest you get some help if you think saying "I don't think you understand the needs of the average consumer" is a personal attack.

More attacks. Hint: A personal attack is an attack on the person rather than the argument. Please tell me *how* I don't understand the needs, rather than simply attacking me by saying I don't understand the needs.

I didn't say SSD was a niche of a niche. For it to be a niche of a niche Hard Drives would need to be a niche, which they're obviously not. The MacBook Air is a small niche of overall MacBooks sold, so my statement is accurate.

Link I posted: projection is 48% of Mac portable sales are Macbook Air models, year 2011. That isn't niche of a niche. Your point is wrong.

That may not be the case in some years, but I was arguing over now. Even if it's not, though, that's doesn't mean anything. Macs have been stuck in terms of growth for 2-3 years now, and they're not hitting over 5% worldwide. Taking into account the MBA would be 48% of all portable Mac sales makes it's still a very small niche. Again, Macs make a very small niche in the market.

That's not what you said, so that's not what I replied to. That whooshing sound is the goalposts moving.

 

[LOL_Wut_Axel]

More attacks. Hint: A personal attack is an attack on the person rather than the argument. Please tell me *how* I don't understand the needs, rather than simply attacking me by saying I don't understand the needs.

Someone call the

If you're offended by any of this, perhaps you need to go to a psychologist to treat your sensitivity. Not that I give a crap if you're offended, mind you.



Link I posted: projection is 48% of Mac portable sales are Macbook Air models, year 2011. That isn't niche of a niche. Your point is wrong.

My point is fine and still standing. Apple counts for an insignificant amount of the computer market. I don't care about a $1000+ computer that most of the market won't notice. Apple is not projected to have more than 5% market share. That alone destroys any argument you may have.



That's not what you said, so that's not what I replied to. That whooshing sound is the goalposts moving.

Obviously you can't admit you lost the argument. I told you about products for the mainstream market, and you come with a MacBook Air, something only a very few small amount of people will buy. That, and it has almost no relevance in terms of changing things in the market, as has been the case for Apple and computers.

You're arguing over Apple, a niche computer OEM, when I was talking about mainstream computers/products.

 

[dclive]

One, MBAs are nowhere near being mainstream. They make a niche market in Apple's MacBook lineup, which is already a niche.

That's what I replied to; your statement is wrong. If you want to whoosh the goalposts around to try to change your argument later, so be it.

 

[dclive]

That, and it has almost no relevance in terms of changing things in the market, as has been the case for Apple and computers.

That's funny, really!!

 

[LOL_Wut_Axel]

That's what I replied to; your statement is wrong. If you want to whoosh the goalposts around to try to change your argument later, so be it.

No, my statement is right. MacBook Airs are a niche in terms of Macs being sold now. That may not be in the future, but I was talking about now. Even if it's not a niche in the niche market of Macs in the future, it's still a niche, and mostly insignificant.

I haven't changed anything. You just need to learn to read and see what I posted. I already told you in a post above that the MacBook Air wasn't a good example because as of now it was a niche of a niche, which is correct. In the future it may not be a niche of a niche, but it'll still be a niche.

Macs don't really matter as far as mainstream computers go. Their big sales are in the iPad, iPhone and iPod markets. Why you can't accept this and keep grasping at straws is beyond me. Use another argument with a mainstream OEM. Most consumers don't care about Macs.

 

[LOL_Wut_Axel]

That's funny, really!!

What changes did Apple try to make mainstream in the computer market and succeeded? Let's see here: all-in-one form factor: failed; FireWire: failed. Just at the top of my head. There's tons of examples.

Apple's changes and breakthroughs come from their consumer electronics market. That includes the iPod, the iPhone, and the iPad. Saying that Apple has been recently successful when it comes to sales or setting changes that the industry follows in computers is laughable.

 

[dclive]

No, my statement is right. MacBook Airs are a niche in terms of Macs being sold now. That may not be in the future, but I was talking about now. Even if it's not a niche in the niche market of Macs in the future, it's still a niche, and mostly insignificant.

48% of portable sales are insignificant?

I haven't changed anything. You just need to learn to read and see what I posted. I already told you in a post above that the MacBook Air wasn't a good example because as of now it was a niche of a niche, which is correct. In the future it may not be a niche of a niche, but it'll still be a niche.

Macs don't really matter as far as mainstream computers go. Their big sales are in the iPad, iPhone and iPod markets. Why you can't accept this and keep grasping at straws is beyond me. Use another argument with a mainstream OEM. Most consumers don't care about Macs.

48% of Apple's notebook sales (which is their majority of sales now) is a niche of a niche?

Apple certainly does matter as far as mainstream computers go. One only needs to look at Microsoft's 'innovations' to see that. You should focus on the difference between marketshare and mindshare, as there appears to be some confusion.

 

[dclive]

What changes did Apple try to make mainstream in the computer market and succeeded? Let's see here: all-in-one form factor: failed; FireWire: failed. Just at the top of my head. There's tons of examples.

Apple's changes and breakthroughs come from their consumer electronics market. That includes the iPod, the iPhone, and the iPad. Saying that Apple has been recently successful when it comes to sales or setting changes that the industry follows in computers is laughable.

If you honestly are asking that and don't know, I can't help you. Here are a few to start with: GUI popularization. Mouse popularization. Ease-of-use popularization. All-in-one form factor is here to say, and per CNet Apple is at the top of the heap, so that hasn't 'failed'. Firewire worked well for years, and is only now elipsed by faster technologies.

Again, you don't see the difference between marketshare and mindshare.

 

[exdeath]

*All* hard drives are slow. Hard drives were a step up from reel to reel tape back in the 1950s and they have not improved much over the last several decades when compared to the improvements in CPUs, RAM, main buses, and the exponentially increasing data sizes we work with. Sorry 20 MB/sec to 100 MB/sec in 30 years isn't an "improvement".

Go with SSD and don't look back. SSDs should hold us over until MRAM/FeRAM which will negate the need for a hard drive altogether.

If you HAVE to use a HDD, get a Raptor or Cheetah.

 

[dclive]

*All* hard drives are slow. Hard drives were a step up from reel to reel tape back in the 1950s and they have not improved much over the last several decades when compared to the improvements in CPUs, RAM, main buses, and the exponentially increasing data sizes we work with. Go with SSD and don't look back.

Agreed.

 

[LOL_Wut_Axel]

48% of portable sales are insignificant?

When you're talking about an OEM that has such small market share overall; yes, certainly. If we were talking about something like a Dell Inspiron or an HP Pavilion, for example, you'd have a good argument.

48% of Apple's notebook sales (which is their majority of sales now) is a niche of a niche?

You just contradicted yourself, or didn't care to read. As of now, MacBook Airs are certainly a niche of a niche. In the future, if analysts are right, then it'll go from being that to being a niche. Still very insignificant in the scheme of things. Having 48% of notebook sales from an OEM that has under 5% market share is nothing to be raving about. Almost no one will buy it.

Apple certainly does matter as far as mainstream computers go. One only needs to look at Microsoft's 'innovations' to see that. You should focus on the difference between marketshare and mindshare, as there appears to be some confusion.

Then show me examples of hardware that Apple created or implemented that went mainstream recently because they pushed for it. What does Microsoft even have to do with this? Microsoft competes with Apple in the consumer electronics market, not the computer market; they don't sell hardware, and OS X can't compete with Windows because OS X entails having to buy an Apple computer to get the OS. There's no Microsoft computers.

 

[LOL_Wut_Axel]

*All* hard drives are slow. Hard drives were a step up from reel to reel tape back in the 1950s and they have not improved much over the last several decades when compared to the improvements in CPUs, RAM, main buses, and the exponentially increasing data sizes we work with. Sorry 20 MB/sec to 100 MB/sec in 30 years isn't an "improvement".

Go with SSD and don't look back. SSDs should hold us over until MRAM/FeRAM which will negate the need for a hard drive altogether.

If you HAVE to use a HDD, get a Raptor or Cheetah.

I'll buy an SSD when they're better priced, thank you very much.

And if you don't think that going from 20MB/s 30 years ago to now being at 145MB/s is an improvement, maybe there's something wrong with you. SSDs aren't as awesome sauce as you make them out to be as of now. They're a lot faster, but they have meager storage capacity.

 

[dclive]

When you're talking about an OEM that has such small market share overall; yes, certainly. If we were talking about something like a Dell Inspiron or an HP Pavilion, for example, you'd have a good argument.

Ever compare profits of those companies? Dell showed up in Apple's rear view mirror a while ago.

You just contradicted yourself, or didn't care to read. As of now, MacBook Airs are certainly a niche of a niche. In the future, if analysts are right, then it'll go from being that to being a niche. Still very insignificant in the scheme of things. Having 48% of notebook sales from an OEM that has under 5% market share is nothing to be raving about. Almost no one will buy it.

48% projection for the current year isn't a niche of a niche to most people.

Then show me examples of hardware that Apple created or implemented that went mainstream recently because they pushed for it. What does Microsoft even have to do with this? Microsoft competes with Apple in the consumer electronics market, not the computer market; they don't sell hardware, and OS X can't compete with Windows because OS X entails having to buy an Apple computer to get the OS. There's no Microsoft computers.

Firewire went mainstream as a success; for years FW owned the video market. Apple owned a big chunk of that market. I can't imagine why you call that a failure. Didn't you realize until fairly recently if you wanted to import video data from a camcorder to a computer you almost had to use firewire? How do you call that a failure, much less Apple's failure?

 

[dclive]

I'll buy an SSD when they're better priced, thank you very much.

And if you don't think that going from 20MB/s 30 years ago to now being at 145MB/s is an improvement, maybe there's something wrong with you. SSDs aren't as awesome sauce as you make them out to be as of now. They're a lot faster, but they have meager storage capacity.

You are looking at speed of doing a single data copy. I'm more interested in IOPS, where SSDs clean physical media's clock, nevermind the 500MB/s streams they can do otherwise. The real win is in random reads/writes, which is what most IO is if you're not moving big files around all day.

Hard drives are *terrible* at this, and they get even worse if you should want to do *two* of them at the same time, never mind three, or four, or five.

 

[LOL_Wut_Axel]

If you honestly are asking that and don't know, I can't help you. Here are a few to start with: GUI popularization. Mouse popularization. Ease-of-use popularization. All-in-one form factor is here to say, and per CNet Apple is at the top of the heap, so that hasn't 'failed'. Firewire worked well for years, and is only now elipsed by faster technologies.

Again, you don't see the difference between marketshare and mindshare.

Being at the top of a 1% market is nothing to be raving about. Also, why the hell are you bringing a software discussion into a hardware discussion? All-in-one has very much failed. Apple thought it was the 'future' in 1998. That didn't happen; not even close. It ended up failing miserably.

 

[dclive]

All-in-one has very much failed. Apple thought it was the 'future' in 1998. That didn't happen; not even close. It ended up failing miserably.

Please define "failed", as you might have a different definition than mine, particularly given your 'firewire has failed' comment.