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Gut Feeling - Somethings Coming , , ,

CaptnKirk

CaptnKirk

Lifer
It could be very well a launch of a major and widespread co-ordinated
countrywide to coincide with the 'Symbolic' turnover of authority to Iraqs
designated officials, including the 'Transfer' of custody of Saddam.

All eyes will be focused on that area for the 'Independance Day' of Iraq,
and it will precede the U.S. Cellebration of Independance - 4th of July,
bo only 4 days. A perfect chance for a political ridicule of U.S. action.

Looking back on TET from a historical point of view, even though thousands of
Viet Cong and NVA supports were killed in those 2 weeks - the political statement
was tremendous, our capabilities and direction erroded and declined from that time.

Don't blame 'Hippies' and 'Liberals' for what happened after TET - it was the
Son's of the Well-To-Do in Yuppie School that drove the heart of the protests.
(The hippies were stoned - they didn't care)
 
Tet was a resounding military victory; the perception was somewhat different, likely due to the images raised by the Marines running around outside the embassy looking confused.

If we have the same sort of resounding victory minus the journalistic confusion, great.
 
Tet a victory? How odd. I know guys who were there and they all say the NVA and VC got slaughtered after the initial surprise wore off. How exactly was Tet a victory?


Edit: Ok sorry, I took that post the wrong way, my bad.
 
Originally posted by: CaptnKirk
Look - very encounter with the enemy in 'Nam was a Military Victory for the U.S.

It was irrelevant.

!968 TET Offensive

More TET
Click to expand...
Yep. People still don't understand that. Hell, we won almost every single major battle in "Nam, but lost the war.

As regards Iraq, I don't think the insurgents have anywhere near the maturity of organization that the Vietnamese had -- they'd been at it against the French, the Japanese, and the French again long before we ever stuck our snouts in there -- so I don't the Iraqi oppostion and their feydaheen buddies pulling off a Tet or anything close. But, give 'em time.

I do expect bloodshed though, with lots of poor bastard Iraqis dying.
 
My gut feeling? This is the beginning of the end... of the Iraqi resistance. They are getting desperate, they are going to pull out all the stops to prevent this handover of power from occuring. They won't be able to stop it.. Things will only get better from this point on. I think this turnover of power is going to be a turning point for Bush as well. Once Americans see the Iraqi's are starting to govern themselves, they will see progress is being made, and results are being made. Bush's approval ratings will not go down from here.
 
My gut feeling? This is the beginning of the end... of the Iraqi resistance. They are getting desperate, they are going to pull out all the stops to prevent this handover of power from occuring. They won't be able to stop it.. Things will only get better from this point on. I think this turnover of power is going to be a turning point for Bush as well. Once Americans see the Iraqi's are starting to govern themselves, they will see progress is being made, and results are being made. Bush's approval ratings will not go down from here.
 
It's not about stopping the hand over. It's about letting everyone involved know that they are going to be there for the long haul even when we leave. You could have the hand over in New York and you'll still have the resistance in Iraq there for many years to come still fighting, killing and blowing stuff up as long as we are there in a military sense. It's more of a message then a military campaign IMHO.
 
The following quote by Crimson reminds me of a Viet Nam story. " This is the beginning of the end... of the Iraqi resistance. They are getting desperate, they are going to pull out all the stops to prevent this handover of power from occuring. They won't be able to stop it.. Things will only get better from this point on. I think this turnover of power is going to be a turning point for Bush as well." There was a story that appeared in the Stars and Stripes in which Westmorland, who had several thousand guys combing the woods for a team launching occasional rockets into Saigon, said, "This shows they're desparate."

Crimson, reflect on this. The best single predictor of future behavior is past behavior. I see no reason why the Iraqis will change their past behavior against the coalition of the bought and paid for. But, I'm saving your "Things will get better" quote for the future.
 
We weren't going to win the Vietnam War regardless of what we did. If we had invaded the North, we would have had to occupy it and the South for a long period which would have been impossible and very costly. If we had nuked the North and rendered it basically uninhabitable, yes, we could have "won", but who would have done THAT with the Chinese and Russians waiting in the wings? The Pentagon had NO winning strategy for Vietnam because NONE existed. And Iraq is no different. Capt. K understands that when people are fighting for their land, losing is not an option. We have lost Iraq already. The realization of that fact will sink in shortly.

-Robert
 
Originally posted by: etech
Originally posted by: CaptnKirk
Look - very encounter with the enemy in 'Nam was a Military Victory for the U.S.

It was irrelevant.

!968 TET Offensive

More TET
Click to expand...


Interesting point, the people that didn't like the war and the media that made it look so bad that the war was lost.


Interesting parallel.
Click to expand...
Yup, there is no truth. Beauty and ugliness, good and evil, these are all manufactured by the press. Winning and loss, these things are mere attitudes of perception. This is why the wise know we won in Viet Nam. We just did it in a funny sort of way by making it look like we didn't. We will have the oil by not taking it. The Hippies didn't care because being stoned they comprehended deep Strategery and laughed at the cherry blossom petals swirling in the wind.

La illa ha illal lah

Ya Allah

Ya Hoo Ya Haq

Ya Hayyi Ya Qayyom
 
The ultimate irony is that the Viet Cong were FINISHED as an effective fighting force after the Tet offensive. They weren't merely beaten -- they were destroyed. However, Giap's assessment of the "peace" movement was correct.
 
Shame........looks like the hand-over took place already, thus spoiling a few plans no doubt. Too bad, soo sad.
 
Originally posted by: CaptnKirk
It could be very well a launch of a major and widespread co-ordinated
countrywide to coincide with the 'Symbolic' turnover of authority to Iraqs
designated officials, including the 'Transfer' of custody of Saddam.

All eyes will be focused on that area for the 'Independance Day' of Iraq,
and it will precede the U.S. Cellebration of Independance - 4th of July,
bo only 4 days. A perfect chance for a political ridicule of U.S. action.

Looking back on TET from a historical point of view, even though thousands of
Viet Cong and NVA supports were killed in those 2 weeks - the political statement
was tremendous, our capabilities and direction erroded and declined from that time.

Don't blame 'Hippies' and 'Liberals' for what happened after TET - it was the
Son's of the Well-To-Do in Yuppie School that drove the heart of the protests.
(The hippies were stoned - they didn't care)
Click to expand...

It could just be gas.
 
Originally posted by: AndrewR
The ultimate irony is that the Viet Cong were FINISHED as an effective fighting force after the Tet offensive. They weren't merely beaten -- they were destroyed. However, Giap's assessment of the "peace" movement was correct.
Click to expand...


They were destroyed as a effective guerrilla fighting force but the NVA and North Vietnam could of easily built them up again. They had the patience and were willing to spend the time to do so if need be. A lot of the VC grunts may have gotten killed but I suspect the brains of the operation were spared from having to engage U.S. forces so that they could rebuild. Kind of like a suicide bomber blowing himself up and killing some people, yet the support infrastructure and brains for bomb building, recruiting, etc.... all still remained but the message of "We will do anything to get rid of you." is applied to those left living.


P.S. Interesting enough the NVA and VC ( more so the VC ) both employed suicide bomber tactics.
 
Originally posted by: Crimson
My gut feeling? This is the beginning of the end... of the Iraqi resistance. They are getting desperate
Click to expand...

You know, you guys have been saying that for over a year now, after each major attack.

Originally posted by: Corn
Shame........looks like the hand-over took place already, thus spoiling a few plans no doubt. Too bad, soo sad.
Click to expand...

Don't worry, they won't let their 'fireworks' go to waste.
 
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