"GTX260 216sp could cause overstock problems"

[thilanliyan]

http://www.digitimes.com/mobos/a20080915PD203.html

Well duh...who'd buy the 192sp version if it's the same price. However, I'm pretty sure there'll be some deep discounts to sell off the 192sp versions.

 

[BladeVenom]

Might also hurt the sales of the GTX280, since it brings it to within 24sp of the GTX280.

 

[taltamir]

people were buying the GTX280?

 

[apoppin]

Originally posted by: taltamir
people were buying the GTX280?

what does that mean?



it is clearly faster than the 4870 and sits below the 4870x2 performance wise - when X2 scales

You can get a 4870/512 for $225 after MiR; a 280GTX for under $400 and the 4870x2 is overpriced at $550

Heck, i got one of each

 

[ronnn]

think it means the 280 hasn't been a big seller?

 

[rjc]

From the recent nividia conference call
NVIDIA F2Q09
Jen-Hsun Huang:
"It?s not a singular thing that explains it all away. Our situation was particularly aggravated because we were the first to 65. We had such a large momentum of 65-nanometer products and when the market slowed down unexpectedly for us, we ended up with a lot more 65-nanometer capacity than -- or inventory than we like.

All of our products are now 55-nanometer and all of them are ready to ramp and many of them have ramped but until we consume the 65-nanometer capacity, or inventory, excuse me, we?re not really going to be able to benefit from the cost reductions of the 55. "

Depending on how you read the above inventory would be the 192 shader products, and i guess the capacity the 216 shader products. Is a bit strange though as they claim to be completely at 55nm and thus wouldnt be able to produce any new 65nm 216 shader parts. Possibly the parts get stored with all shaders active and disabled only once they are sold???


Also for people looking for faster nvidia products this year:
Marvin D Burkett
"Well, how long it takes us to work through it depends on how many we sell in each quarter. I think we?ll see some improvement in Q3 and some improvement in Q4 in the transition to 55-nanometer. We?ll have to see how quickly we work through that inventory.

Some of the moving parts on gross margin going forward is that I think as Jen-Hsun said, we?ve seen prices stabilize in the desktop GPU ea, so the improvement in gross margin there is going to have to come from cost reduction."

Taken together they are restricted in the prices they can charge and really need to make more money(ie better yields, less wastage, products with smaller dies) at the current price points. No point in increasing performance.

(Note from reading the entire transcript the CFO is much better to listen to for whats going on, the CEO seems to get caught up in hopelessly optimistic marketing type statements too much)

 

[Tempered81]

Originally posted by: rjc
the CEO seems to get caught up in hopelessly optimistic marketing type statements

sounds about right, when hes not addressing his kingdom about the eternal battle against intel.

 

[apoppin]

Originally posted by: jaredpace

Originally posted by: rjc
the CEO seems to get caught up in hopelessly optimistic marketing type statements

sounds about right, when hes not addressing his kingdom about the eternal battle against intel.

You want this in english?

All of our products are now 55-nanometer and all of them are ready to ramp and many of them have ramped but until we consume the 65-nanometer capacity, or inventory, excuse me, we?re not really going to be able to benefit from the cost reductions of the 55. "

Nvidia has made the transition to 55nm at TSMC - they are taped out and "ready to ramp" .. they are ready for actual manufacturing

BUT ... until they dump the *current excess* inventory of all of their 65nm Tesla 200 parts, they will not be able to benefit from the transition

So they are working on their pricing of their current products and "timing" their new line .. we know we will see the 55nm parts in time for the "buying season" but it may be adjusted a bit to compensate for their current inventory situation

- i use the universal CEO translator- recommended!

Yes, Marvin explained it .. they will have it done by Q4 [optimistically] and then they will be able to make money

i think those who are expecting a monster performer out of the 55nm shrink may be disappointed; this transition is for Nvidia to cut costs and make money for themselves and their partners .. although it does not discount their 'ultra' nor a Gx2 imo

 

[ronnn]

Thought I read.

We have had no problems with the transition. We just don't have any for sale yet. Anything you have heard about transition problems is bs, we just don't have any for sale yet. We are releasing a beefed up 260 because we have excess stock, the transition actually went very smoothly. We are saving money by not selling anything quick enough, but don't worry about the transition.

 

[atwood7fan]

damnit... I just bought an evga gtx 260. Should I return it?

 

[Keysplayr]

Yeah, that's really not what they were saying. Apoppin hit it.

 

[apoppin]

Originally posted by: keysplayr2003
Yeah, that's really not what they were saying. Apoppin hit it.

thanks ..

damn .. i really need to get back to benching .. but i found the *key* near the end of the call

Jen-Hsun Huang

And with respect to your first comment, hopefully by the end of the year, we should be top to bottom 55.

David Wu - Global Crown Capital

Can I follow-up with one quick one? I understand from various websites that the tape-out has already occurred for the 40-nanometer part that you have been designing out of your B foundries. I assume that means you will be going to production in the new fiscal year fairly early. Is that more or less correct?

Jen-Hsun Huang

Well, we made the mistake of having a bad quarter -- let?s not make the mistake of pre-announcing our products.

so we know Nvidia will be 55nm top-to-bottom fairly soon
. . . and they *probably* have also taped out 40nm
:Q

for next year

i wouldn't bother returning any GTX260 for a 10% performance increase with the gold edition; and 55nm will probably get you a little speed bump, slight core refinements, and a cooler an better O/C'er. But their new 280-'55'GTX looks to be "fixed" at $399 - if you really analyze what Jensen says

 

[bryanW1995]

Originally posted by: atwood7fan
damnit... I just bought an evga gtx 260. Should I return it?

you can step up for 3 months still...the way gtx 280 has been going you could get a 280 for nothing maybe?

 

[apoppin]

Originally posted by: bryanW1995

Originally posted by: atwood7fan
damnit... I just bought an evga gtx 260. Should I return it?

you can step up for 3 months still...the way gtx 280 has been going you could get a 280 for nothing maybe?

i dunno, 280 is the one price Nvidia can seem to hold closer to $400 till the 55 nm replacement.

it is solidly faster than the 4870 which is hovering ~$250 and below the X2 which is "fat" at $550, and helping AMD's margins.

WHat do you see? probably the 280GTX falling to $350 and finally $300, the 260 and the 4870 prices close to $200 ?

it is good times for us. No wonder the bottom fell out of the midrange GPU desktop market and increased at the high-end

this year the high end became nearly affordable for the average gamer

 

[ronnn]

So the 260 and 280 are midrange or did nvidia just make sooo many?

I think they needed a respin or 3. Bad luck, but has happened before.

 

[rjc]

Originally posted by: apoppin
i dunno, 280 is the one price Nvidia can seem to hold closer to $400 till the 55 nm replacement.

The only thing that could upset that would be ATI's 4850x2, but that seems fairly unlikely.

it is solidly faster than the 4870 which is hovering ~$250 and below the X2 which is "fat" at $550, and helping AMD's margins.

WHat do you see? probably the 280GTX falling to $350 and finally $300, the 260 and the 4870 prices close to $200 ?

From previous link nvidias margins are already bad, they wont reduce the 260 much i wouldnt think, the strategy they seem to be pursuing is give it extra shaders to get it clear of the 4870 and better able to maintain price and margins if the 4870 falls.

it is good times for us. No wonder the bottom fell out of the midrange GPU desktop market and increased at the high-end

this year the high end became nearly affordable for the average gamer

Ha ha! That's one way to look at it.

Or they managed to push people into spending $50-$100 more than they want to on graphics cards. A pretty incredible achievement really considering the way other computer components prices have been plumetting.

You would think that this would cause a backlash against the GPU companies. From the above instead it looks like it is induced some kind of Stockholm Syndrome response.

 

[splicer707]

So, when are these new GTX260's due?

 

[amtbr]

Originally posted by: apoppin


this year the high end became nearly affordable for the average gamer

High end affordable? Sure the GTX 280 is less than the Ultra, but 400$ still seems out of reach for most people.

 

[scheibler1]

wow just recieved my gtx 260 yesterday...

 

[taltamir]

it makes sense in a way, they gotta get rid of current stock before obsoleting it... expect price cuts. then again, i got my eVGA GTX260 SC for 220$ (just cached in the 30$ MIR a few days ago).

 

[Zap]

Originally posted by: atwood7fan
damnit... I just bought an evga gtx 260. Should I return it?

Step up.

Originally posted by: splicer707
So, when are these new GTX260's due?

Today. Stock clocked EVGA already in stock at Newegg. Looks like they hustled to get them out. They'll have stock, SC and the ever elusive watercooled. This time 'round no SSC or FTW. EVGA is branded "Core 216."

BFG is branded "Maxcore" and will not have stock speed, but will have OC/OC2/OCX. I'm also expecting... something else. Can't say exactly what.

 

[taltamir]

can you step to to the extra cores one?