RS, I always like reading your posts/opinion on pricing, so a couple questions on your opinion. So if the GTX 880 TI is around 30-35% performance increase, where do you think Nvidia might price it at and what is your opinion of where it should be priced at?
I know kind of a stuff question so if you prefer not to post a price/opinion that's fine.
I know vram amount will also be a factor, but for now lets assume its possibly turns out to be a 6GB/384 bit card for now.
TIA
Thanks for the compliment. Sorry for the long reply. I will say upfront that I probably have unrealistic expectations vs. other gamers on our forum whom seem to have accepted NV's new $499-549 and $699 price levels from historical $300-350 and $500-600.
It is very difficult to answer your question actually. Assuming it is 30-35% faster, and is based in GM204, a reasonable price for me can only be assessed in hindsight to be honest. Here are 7 reasons why it is hard to say if the price is fair:
1) Timing and price. What if 880Ti launches for $599 and we don't see GM200/210 for 1.5 years? In that case, ignoring AMD for a second, this card will be the 'flagship' until Spring 2016. That's a lot more justifiable than if GM200 launches in September 2015 for $699 with 35-40% more performance over 880Ti. Alternatively, what if Nv launches GM200 in 6-9 months but only as Titan 2 for $1000? Technically GM200/210 would be released but hardly relevant for most gamers.
2) Overclocking. What if 880Ti overclocks 25-30% with minimal effort and little voltage increase, thus not blowing power consumption into the sky? Big bonus to justify a $600 price vs. If it hardly overclocks and has voltage locked.
3) Efficiency. While I personally do not buy cards primarily based on efficiency, if 880Ti's 30-35% increase is accompanied at a ludicrous power usage of say 150W, the extra premium could be justified for users with very small / cramped cases that simply don't want a 250-270W card. Imagine 690 beating performance in a 150W power envelope.
4) It depends on what AMD launches in the next 12 months from a price/performance perspective, features and efficiency. What if AMD is late by 6-7 months and delivers a far less efficient card for only $50 less? If say 880Ti uses 180W but 390X uses 250W but they have a similar price (+/-$50) and performance, then 880Ti is the winner. Not worth waiting for vs. Buying the 880Ti right away. What if AMD releases a card that unlocks like 6950 or overclocks really well like 7950 and it offers 85-90% of the performance for $499? Then 880Ti for $599-699 would look rather expensive.
There could be some cool new features from either camp. They could be useful such as Eyefinity with multiple monitor and resolution combos or gimmicks like TrueAudio so far.
5) What if AMD or Nv throw some great game bundles into the purchase? That would make the price more justifiable if you want those games (Recall the awesome Metro, Mafia 2 and Just Cause 2 NV bundles during 470/480 gen).
6) How good is NV's and AMD's 2nd faster card? Is 870 vs. 880 going to be like 670 vs. 680 where with overclocking you get 95% of the performance? or will NV cut down the lower SKUs a lot and the gap be substantial like 8800 Ultra vs. 8800 GTS 640mb? For example for gaming R9 280X or 7970Ghz can barely beat an overclocked 7950/R9 280 which made those SKUs mostly relevant for non-overclockers, miners and bragging rights. If you wanted to overclock, 7950/R9 280 gives 770/R9 280X beating performance.
This goes to my unlocked 6950/7950 point earlier.
7) State of GameWorks vs. Mantle. This could change the standing of 390X vs. 880Ti in popular titles. If on average 880Ti is 15% faster but it's destroying the 390X in big titles like Witcher 3, next AC game, by 30% etc. then the average wouldn't be as relevant for someone who loves Witcher series. Same can be said for BF games or Dragon Age Inquisition or Star Citizen. Since we don't know the impact of Mantle or GameWorks on future titles, it will be hard to assess what 880Ti is worth vs. AMD's card.
Since we do not have the benefit of hindsight here is another perspective:
GM204 is the spiritual successor to GK204, not to GK110.
In that case, 880Ti GM204 4GB would be $499 and 8GB would be $549. But 680 no longer sells as 770 replaced it. Then 880Ti would succeed that card. Since 770 sells for $300-400, and 780Ti is now $599 on Newegg, $499 is a reasonable price if we look at historical price/performance and generational GPU upgrades, then GM204 should offer 50-100% more performance over its predecessor (GK104) at a similar price.
From my perspective, Nv should not price this card above $549 because:
1) Next generation flagship leaps from Nv have been 50-100%. If 880Ti doesn't achieve that over 780Ti, it is not a true next gen flagship. This would support the theory of a gen being split into 2 halves just like Nv/AMD did 680/780Ti and 7970/290X.
2) NV is not using a more expensive 20nm node. Manufacturing cost should be far lower on a 430mm2 28nm die vs. 561mm2 28nm 780Ti now.
3) GM204 is a successor to GK104, so raising the price from $549 is once again raising the "midrange" price from the already inflated 680/7970 levels.
NV's point of view: a card more efficient, 25-35% faster, 4GB vs. 3GB, and $100 less MSRP can easily be marketed as great value to NV's customer base. That's why I think NV doesn't need to go with $499-549 level. They can get away with $599 or even $699 given how 780Ti sold.