1070 will probably only match or lose to a stock reference 980ti (which noone owns)
While loosing badly when both are overclocked/980ti aftermarket version.
Unlikely. Pascal has very scaling against Maxwell.
1080 = 2560x1733mhz / (2048x1216) = 78% higher, vs. real world 1440p-4K at about 67-69%. That means Pascal has about a 11.5-14% reduction in IPC against Maxwell based on these benches (67% / 78%).
1070 = 1920x1683mhz / (2048x1216) = 30% higher. Let's apply the same 14% IPC penalty => 25.8% faster real world vs. GTX980 (minimum)
1440p
GTX980 = 60%
GTX1070 extrapolated = 60% * 1.258X = 75.48%
http://www.techpowerup.com/reviews/NVIDIA/GeForce_GTX_1080/26.html
Many games are still CPU limited or engine limited. They aren't able to show the full potential of Pascal. This is a similar situation to early launches of GTX480, HD5870 or HD7970. You will never see the true potential of a new architecture/GPU series until you either test the highest resolution gaming to shift the bottleneck 99% to the GPU or future next gen PC games come out.
In Crysis 3, 1080 is
46% faster than the 980Ti.
In Hitman, 1080 is
37% faster than the 980Ti.
In GTA V, at 4K 1080 is
33% faster than the 980Ti, with minimum FPS 52% higher.
This suggests at GPU limited settings, 1080 can be 33-46% faster than the 980Ti. Someone choosing between a 1070 and a 980Ti will likely keep the 1070 for at least 2 years. This gives 1070 room to separate itself from the GTX980Ti as Pascal drivers mature and NV stops optimizing for Maxwell.
Max overclocked 980Ti also uses 300-350W of power.
https://www.overclockers.ru/lab/76273_4/obzor-i-testirovanie-videokarty-nvidia-geforce-gtx-1080.html
Max overclocked 1070 is unlikely to use more than 200W.
As soon as the first good AIB 1070 drops for $380-400, GTX980Ti isn't even worth $380.
Annual +30% performance lift, with pricing structure essentially according to where cards slot into the performance heirarchy.
(Big cards a little more etc.).
You are right on the $$$. I'll narrow it down to 32-33%.
September 2009 HD5870 -> November 2013 GTX780Ti
100% -> 305%
For 4 years from 2009 to 2013, average GPU increases are 32% per annum (1.322^4 years ~ 305%)
http://www.computerbase.de/2013-12/grafikkarten-2013-vergleich/10/#abschnitt_highend_2010_bis_2013
1080 is about
2X faster than GTX780Ti and it took 2.5 years from 780Ti's launch to get there.
780Ti = 100% base *
1.33^2.5 years =
204% 1080. (Averaging 1440p and 4K per TPU = avg(100/51 + 100/47)=
204.4%)
This highlights an annualized improvement in GPU power of roughly 32-33%, an increase that has been constant since September 2009 until now. This means roughly we should expect some AMD/NV 2017 GPU to be 30-33% faster than the 1080.
Your +30% is a very, very reasonable projection of what the future holds unless AMD/NV run into a major 7nm-10nm node roadblock soon.