GT200 is apparently already taped out and Waiting for r700!

[BFG10K]

nVidia could still easily milk the G9x series as lowend/midrange solutions while they have a true (and clearly uncontested, at least until R700) high end solution.

nVidia?s hand is being forced to a degree because of ATi's X2 being "faster", so they?ve slapped two current cards together.

If there's a reason GT200 isn't being released now, its not because nVidia is 'waiting' for AMD to make a move first.

They?re milking their current solutions because ATi can't compete. R&D for a new product costs money. If they've already got a product the competition can't compete with they can continue to make money without requiring a new product.

 

[Keysplayr]

I don't understand, Apoppin. Why are you raging against the GX2, claiming it's a "reminder" of the 7800GTX 512 days, then get all set to buy one on launch day? Maybe two? Please don't take this the wrong way, but your postings are steadily becoming more and more confusing to others. What message are you trying to send with this method?

Examples: (Some quotes are word for word here, and the first two are just a general feel of your thread here)

"The situation reminds of old 7800GTX 512 PR marketing move by Nvidia"

"$600 for rehashed, G92 technology is far too expensive"

"Why is NVIDIA releasing - 9800 recycled GPUs - when GT200 could be deployed anytime they feel like it?"

"Not for $600 .. when GT 200 is *waiting* only for AMD to get near r700's launch"

"7800GTX/512 was the same as GX2 - an "in-betweener"

"to MILK their fans - just like with GTX-512 - it was BLOWN AWAY by 7900 which was MUCH cheaper and faster - never mind that x1900xt crushed it "

"Send them a message, tell 'em to stuff it - for $600 .. we learned the last time"

"it's *only* money ,,, i think that is the message for buying a GX2"
-------------------------------------------------------------------

That last one has me a little stymied here. You endlessly boast how much you can do for so little money for the past 2 years, since your upgrade to P4 "3.4?" was it?
Now suddenly, 600 dollars (potentially $1200 if you actually do get two of them) is "only" money? You're all pumped up to by at least one GX2 on launch day. WTH?

I mentioned before, in another thread that you did give me a laugh with your seemingly fickle remarks, but as I continue reading your posts of late, I am a bit concerned you are giving mixed messages to other members. Honestly, how do you expect them to translate this bi-polar style of posting? And it is continually escalating. Any reason my friend?

 

[nRollo]

Originally posted by: taltamir
yes, video cards are indeed subject to basic economics and marketing principles.

QFT

 

[Bateluer]

I would like to see both Nvidia and ATI give some attention to their mobile product lines. It took Nvidia over a year to get any mobile 8 series chips into the notebook arena, and longer to get a high end 8 series 8800M GTX into notebooks. ATI hasn't refreshed their high end mobile part since the Mobility 1900, which wasn't exactly a high volume part.

As notebook sales continue to rise and continue to outsell desktops, I think it'd behoove the graphics heavy weights to give the mobile market a little more focus.

On another unrelated side, I'm still going to pick up a 38070X2 this weekend. Worst case scenario, the 48070X2 launches and makes the 38070X2 look weak in June-Aug time frame. And when I do my next major rebuild, I'll be sure I go with a Crossfire capable motherboard.

 

[Keysplayr]

Originally posted by: Bateluer
I would like to see both Nvidia and ATI give some attention to their mobile product lines. It took Nvidia over a year to get any mobile 8 series chips into the notebook arena, and longer to get a high end 8 series 8800M GTX into notebooks. ATI hasn't refreshed their high end mobile part since the Mobility 1900, which wasn't exactly a high volume part.

As notebook sales continue to rise and continue to outsell desktops, I think it'd behoove the graphics heavy weights to give the mobile market a little more focus.

On another unrelated side, I'm still going to pick up a 38070X2 this weekend. Worst case scenario, the 48070X2 launches and makes the 38070X2 look weak in June-Aug time frame. And when I do my next major rebuild, I'll be sure I go with a Crossfire capable motherboard.

If the 8800M is 65nm, that might account for the delay. Just speculating. a 90nm 8800 would have been very difficult to cool. I'm certain a 8800M 65nm is no picnic either in a lappy.

 

[SunnyD]

You have to also realize that NVIDIA learned from it's mistakes a couple years ago, as did AMD - paper launches only piss customers off. With the G80 series onward, we've seen NVIDIA "stockpile" product in order to make sure there's enough to sell.

 

[ArchAngel777]

I am getting so antsy it is ridiculous. I have thoughts frequently if I should just SLI these really cheap G92's or just wait. Seriously, I feel like an addict that needs his fix but it is nowhere in sight!

Uhg...

 

[fleshconsumed]

Originally posted by: SunnyD
You have to also realize that NVIDIA learned from it's mistakes a couple years ago, as did AMD - paper launches only piss customers off. With the G80 series onward, we've seen NVIDIA "stockpile" product in order to make sure there's enough to sell.

You mean like with 8800GT. Sure that wasn't a paper launch, but I wouldn't say they had a stockpile either. Took 2 months to come down to MSRP.

 

[apoppin]

Originally posted by: keysplayr2003
I don't understand, Apoppin. Why are you raging against the GX2, claiming it's a "reminder" of the 7800GTX 512 days, then get all set to buy one on launch day? Maybe two? Please don't take this the wrong way, but your postings are steadily becoming more and more confusing to others. What message are you trying to send with this method?

Examples: (Some quotes are word for word here, and the first two are just a general feel of your thread here)

"The situation reminds of old 7800GTX 512 PR marketing move by Nvidia"

"$600 for rehashed, G92 technology is far too expensive"

"Why is NVIDIA releasing - 9800 recycled GPUs - when GT200 could be deployed anytime they feel like it?"

"Not for $600 .. when GT 200 is *waiting* only for AMD to get near r700's launch"

"7800GTX/512 was the same as GX2 - an "in-betweener"

"to MILK their fans - just like with GTX-512 - it was BLOWN AWAY by 7900 which was MUCH cheaper and faster - never mind that x1900xt crushed it "

"Send them a message, tell 'em to stuff it - for $600 .. we learned the last time"

"it's *only* money ,,, i think that is the message for buying a GX2"
-------------------------------------------------------------------

That last one has me a little stymied here. You endlessly boast how much you can do for so little money for the past 2 years, since your upgrade to P4 "3.4?" was it?
Now suddenly, 600 dollars (potentially $1200 if you actually do get two of them) is "only" money? You're all pumped up to by at least one GX2 on launch day. WTH?

I mentioned before, in another thread that you did give me a laugh with your seemingly fickle remarks, but as I continue reading your posts of late, I am a bit concerned you are giving mixed messages to other members. Honestly, how do you expect them to translate this bi-polar style of posting? And it is continually escalating. Any reason my friend?

it might *seem* that way ... because i have mixed emotions about GX2

i gave MY reasons why i believe the past is repeating itself - now - and that we will have a very similar situation to 7800GTX/512MB
-- i.e. a "very limited supply", expensive to produce GPU that is also expensive and it *will* take the performance crown away from 3870xt - decisively.

My *bet* - a chance - a GAMBLE, i am willing to take - is that the price of Gx2 will RISE steeply and peak about 2 weeks after the "fever" and excitement takes hold - it IS the FASTEST!

--SO I AM speculating - LITERALLY - that i will make at least $100 - after i satisfy my curiosity about it.
--NO ONE PLEASE follow my "advice" ... good god, you could LOSE $100 ... !!!
- i am gambling on my own ANALYSIS


check this out

http://forum.beyond3d.com/show...=1137506&postcount=179

Quote:
Originally Posted by Squilliam

[/quote][/quote]

My take on this is that if both the 55nm g92 and the gt200 rumours come to fruition. The high end will be the Gt200/100/whatever and the mid/mid-low end parts could be cheap g92 derivatives.

Bingo.

Jen-Hsung even said at the last conference: "we'll be driving the costs of G92 down over the next couple of quarters" which means that G92 will be around for at least 6 more months and a shrink to 55nm will certainly help driving down the costs of G92 down. GT200 will be the replacement of GF9800GX2 in the highend. G9x stack will fill everything below it... And supposedly they even have something else on top of GT200 too....

 

[BenSkywalker]

Although not following the overall discussion of the thread, it is very possible for a part to have taped out and still be six months or more away from being available as a retail product.

The first tape out in some ways can be like a beta piece of software submitted to testing, while everything may come back ready to roll it is possble that there are issues that prevent it from being the final form that they will end up using. If they do have issues, it would be a month to two of additional time to address the issues and submit a new spin to get it where it needs to be. Even if it does come back perfect on the first shot, it still needs to come back from TSMC for validation and after that it can enter production at which point it still needs to make it to the board partners for final manufacture so it can then be shipped out to retail.

Back in nV's days of a new card every ~six months it was pretty much standard practice that every time they launched a new product the next part was already taped out.

 

[Genx87]

taped out doesnt mean ready for production. It sounds like first silicon which usually means a bunch of units disabled or in a lower working state so they can test parts of the chip and make changes to the mask.

I believe a really good run will see 3-4 tapeouts before it is ready for production. In rare cases of mismanagement and poor execution(ATI 1800XT) it can go into double digits.

 

[apoppin]

oops


dp

next one >>>>>>>>>>>>>

 

[apoppin]

Originally posted by: apoppin

Originally posted by: BenSkywalker
Although not following the overall discussion of the thread, it is very possible for a part to have taped out and still be six months or more away from being available as a retail product.

The first tape out in some ways can be like a beta piece of software submitted to testing, while everything may come back ready to roll it is possble that there are issues that prevent it from being the final form that they will end up using. If they do have issues, it would be a month to two of additional time to address the issues and submit a new spin to get it where it needs to be. Even if it does come back perfect on the first shot, it still needs to come back from TSMC for validation and after that it can enter production at which point it still needs to make it to the board partners for final manufacture so it can then be shipped out to retail.

Back in nV's days of a new card every ~six months it was pretty much standard practice that every time they launched a new product the next part was already taped out.

it *appears* that Gx2 may have taped out a few months ago
-last year, the same sources were hinting the very same thing about "final silicon" ... only now we have the very first of the tech sites saying that NVIDIA is just *waiting* for r700 to just [finalize their GT200 clocks and] launch it ...

NOT what *i* am saying either:

Apparently, NVIDIA has been working hard because the story is that NVIDIA could present its next architecture any day now, if it wanted to

What does "any day now" really mean?

 

[nRollo]

Originally posted by: apoppin

NOT what *i* am saying either:

Apparently, NVIDIA has been working hard because the story is that NVIDIA could present its next architecture any day now, if it wanted to

Hmmm. An unsubstantiated rumor from an unnamed source. Pretty compelling stuff.

 

[apoppin]

Originally posted by: nRollo

Originally posted by: apoppin

NOT what *i* am saying either:

Apparently, NVIDIA has been working hard because the story is that NVIDIA could present its next architecture any day now, if it wanted to

Hmmm. An unsubstantiated rumor from an unnamed source. Pretty compelling stuff.

i got a 'name' for you:

http://www.nordichardware.com/news,7472.html

:roll:

more in German

and more to come

 

[v8envy]

If NV was Microsoft they could certainly 'present' the pre-alpha hardware 6 months early in hopes of killing the competition's high end sales. So either they don't see the benefit of selling vaporware, don't have the vapor, or are just ethical enough not to do that.

And as others pointed out, taped out != chips ready to ship in volume to board partners.

apoppin, another thing you're overlooking is the allergy enthusiasts have built up to multi-GPU solutions since the days of the first sandwich cards. SLI is no longer a symbol of status, it's more a symbol of flakiness and extreme cost for little benefit. You would stand to make more money at less risk just making a volatility bet in the stock market -- although you wouldn't get to 'enjoy' a sandwich card in your rig for the effort.

 

[Pocatello]

I believe when I see it.

 

[Munky]

Sure, Nvidia are waiting, just like the g71 was waiting for the r580, or the g80 was waiting for the r600. Even if the g200 is taped out, it would still take at least 2-3 months to make it to production, assuming Nvidia doesn't go for a respin. I'm not sure why people seem to think Nvidia always has piles of the next big bad video card, and are just sitting on their butts, waiting for Ati to release something.

 

[taltamir]

So... lets assume for a second that it really is all ready...

If nvidia is building stock to avoid a paper lunch, they are the bad guy for just waiting to steal ATI thunder and trying to milk their fans.
If nvidia releases the day the card is ready with no stock, then they are also trying to steal ATI's thunder, and are evil for frustrating customers and having their rare but good products price gouged...

Damned if you do, damned if you don't... and then damned some more if this entire thing is just wild speculation and they do NOT actually have the card ready. (or they are still testing it because they don't want to pull a phenom)

 

[nRollo]

Originally posted by: taltamir
So... lets assume for a second that it really is all ready...

If nvidia is building stock to avoid a paper lunch, they are the bad guy for just waiting to steal ATI thunder and trying to milk their fans.
If nvidia releases the day the card is ready with no stock, then they are also trying to steal ATI's thunder, and are evil for frustrating customers and having their rare but good products price gouged...

Damned if you do, damned if you don't... and then damned some more if this entire thing is just wild speculation and they do NOT actually have the card ready. (or they are still testing it because they don't want to pull a phenom)

:shocked:

Does this mean they are double damned?!?!

 

[AzN]

GT200 is supposed to be late 3rd quarter or even 4th quarter.

 

[apoppin]

Originally posted by: taltamir
So... lets assume for a second that it really is all ready...

If nvidia is building stock to avoid a paper lunch, they are the bad guy for just waiting to steal ATI thunder and trying to milk their fans.
If nvidia releases the day the card is ready with no stock, then they are also trying to steal ATI's thunder, and are evil for frustrating customers and having their rare but good products price gouged...

Damned if you do, damned if you don't... and then damned some more if this entire thing is just wild speculation and they do NOT actually have the card ready. (or they are still testing it because they don't want to pull a phenom)

actually that IS an *awesome* analysis
:thumbsup:

let me give you part of my conclusion:

--NVIDIA's *dilemma* lies with their PR
--they are still Old Skool .. like ATi .. and they are stuck in the mud
-only they don't think so [i guess, by their reactions]

 

[crapfest]

Being taped out means very little... Intel Nehalem was taped out several months ago and it's not going to be out for at least another 6 months.

Also releasing new stuff now makes barely any business sense. Remember Intel's PPT slide about process refinement over time leading to lower manufacturing costs? Same thing applies here. I'm sure they *could* theoretically release it now but it wouldn't be smart at all.

There's only one game that stresses current hardware to the max anyway.

 

[tuteja1986]

Originally posted by: crapfest
Being taped out means very little... Intel Nehalem was taped out several months ago and it's not going to be out for at least another 6 months.

Also releasing new stuff now makes barely any business sense. Remember Intel's PPT slide about process refinement over time leading to lower manufacturing costs? Same thing applies here. I'm sure they *could* theoretically release it now but it wouldn't be smart at all.

There's only one game that stresses current hardware to the max anyway.

Comparing CPU and GPU warfare is totally different ball game. Neither Nvidia or ATI have their own fab making their high end GPU also the competition is cut throat were if you release a product three month late you would loose so much sales that can damage the company good.

 

[bryanW1995]

Originally posted by: SunnyD
You have to also realize that NVIDIA learned from it's mistakes a couple years ago, as did AMD - paper launches only piss customers off. With the G80 series onward, we've seen NVIDIA "stockpile" product in order to make sure there's enough to sell.

nvidia didn't exactly have a ton of product with the launch of 8800gt. the only reason they are usually able to stockpile product before launch these days is that amd has been generally uncompetitive and they haven't had to rush things. 8800gt was rushed to steal 3870's thunder, and it showed.