12-5-2011
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/gas-p...BzdGNhdANob21lBHB0A3NlY3Rpb25zBHRlc3QD;_ylv=3
The Gas Price Paradox: Don't Celebrate Falling Prices
Remember six months ago when voters were begging the White House to "do something!" about gas prices? They didn't do anything, because they couldn't do anything, but gas prices went down anyway.
Policymakers like to call for smarter "counter-cyclical" policy. In other words, if the U.S. is growing, taxes should be higher, spending should lower, and regulations should be stronger to restrain inflation and the excesses of economic exuberance. Or if the U.S. is struggling, we should cut taxes, raise spending, and suspend rules to encourage companies to take risks that might result in additional hiring.
But oil prices offer a natural counter-cyclical foil to the U.S. economy that's even stronger. The U.S. accounts for about a quarter of the world's crude oil demand. When we get on a roll, the market notices. Since the market's attention moves faster than oil suppliers, good news out of the U.S. -- all things being equal -- usually moves oil prices up. Higher oil prices might be a positive indicator of U.S. growth, but they're bad for U.S. growth.
And that's the thing about oil prices. Supply factors held equal, good news (oil prices are down!) is bad news (something going wrong with the world economy); and bad news (oil prices are up!) is good news (something's growing right).