her209
No Lifer
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/.../01/02/BAGM6AK1OD1.DTL
Some suspect governor's plan to redraw district lines Schwarzenegger hasn't decided whether to call election, aides say
John Wildermuth, Chronicle Political Writer
Sunday, January 2, 2005
Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger wants to change the way California draws its political boundaries, but he'll have to tiptoe through a bipartisan minefield to do it.
Democrats suspicious of a partisan power grab, Republicans worried about their seats, and voters who've turned down eight similar efforts since 1926 all stand in the way of the governor's plan to remove politicians from the redistricting process.
The push for change got a boost in November when voters had their first chance to deal with the new districts drawn by the Legislature after the 2000 census. In 153 elections for Assembly, state Senate and Congress, not a single incumbent was beaten and not one seat changed parties.
The results were good news for the Republicans and Democrats who had crafted the incumbent-friendly political districts but a blow to Schwarzenegger, who had barnstormed across California in an unsuccessful effort to elect some moderate Republicans to the Democrat-run state Legislature.
It was clear that better than 90 percent of the elections were sewn up well before the Nov. 2 vote, the governor told reporters in a post-election news conference.
"I think we have to do a redistricting'' to make the elections more competitive, Schwarzenegger said. "I think this is a very, very important thing that we have to make part of our reforms.''
Since then, however, the governor has been more circumspect. Although rumors have swirled about Schwarzenegger's purported plan to call a special election for this fall, his aides say nothing has been decided.
"The governor is looking at all his options to make government more responsive to the people,'' said Margita Thompson, a spokeswoman for Schwarzenegger. "He'll talk about next year's priorities Jan. 5 in his State of the State address.''
Any redistricting change likely would involve a state constitutional amendment moving responsibility for redistricting from the Legislature to a nonpartisan panel of experts, possibly retired judges.
Politicians can't be trusted to make decisions that deal directly with their livelihoods, said Alan Hoffenblum, whose California Target Book looks at elections throughout the state.
When officeholders draw the lines for their own districts, "you have politicians picking voters rather than voters picking politicians,'' he said.
Efforts to take the politicians out of the state's most political process already have drawn fire from both parties. Assembly Speaker Fabian Núñez, D- Los Angeles, has suggested it's a backdoor effort to put more Republicans in the Legislature while Rep. John Doolittle, R-Rocklin (Placer County), thinks the governor is trying to put more moderate Republicans in office at the expense of conservatives like himself.
"This hasn't been the easiest thing,'' said Ted Costa, a grassroots political organizer who already has a redistricting reform initiative he wants the governor to back. "It's been trench warfare, with both sides against the middle.''
Costa is ready to begin collecting the 598,105 signatures needed to get his initiative on the ballot, but he needs about $1.8 million for the effort, which he figures would be easy to find if Schwarzenegger signs on. The initiative, which could redraw the boundaries in time for the 2006 elections, calls for a panel of three retired judges nominated by legislative leaders to make the decisions, guided by geography rather than partisan politics.
But Schwarzenegger hasn't committed to anything publicly, and sources close to the governor say there's a spirited debate continuing among his advisers over the direction he should take.
A special election victory for Schwarzenegger's reform effort would give the governor a boost going into his anticipated 2006 re-election campaign. More competitive districts also could open the election door for moderates in both parties, giving Schwarzenegger a Legislature that's easier to work with than the current lineup, which is dominated by liberal Democrats and conservative Republicans.
The governor also could use the threat of a special election to bully Democrats into supporting his efforts to streamline state government and trim the budget.
But a bitter, drawn-out campaign over redistricting could make the Democrat-led Legislature even less willing to compromise with the governor. And if voters see the redistricting changes as a political ploy to put more Republicans into office, it could endanger all of Schwarzenegger's government reform efforts.
If the governor calls a special election, it has to be at least five months in advance, which means he has to decide this spring if he wants a vote in the fall. Counting the 2003 recall vote, this would be the sixth statewide election in four years, with two more coming up in 2006. No one knows how voters will react to what would be four years of nonstop campaigning, as well as the anticipated $60 million price tag for a special election.
"I don't know that people feel the same sense of urgency now that they did before the recall in 2003, when they couldn't wait to have an election,'' said Mark Baldassare, a pollster for the Public Policy Institute of California.
Still, many political observers expect Schwarzenegger to take the special election plunge, if only to stay on the offensive against the Democratic legislative leadership.
"Without a special election, it will be (Assembly Speaker) Núñez setting the state agenda next year and Arnie responding,'' said Kevin Spillane, a Republican consultant. "The governor would become a human piñata, which he wouldn't like.''
Redistricting reform has a lousy track record in California politics. Since 1926, eight attempts to revise the way the state draws its political boundaries have made it to the ballot and failed, while nearly two dozen other proposals have been stopped short of a statewide vote. Govs. George Deukmejian and Pete Wilson both tried and failed to take redistricting from the hands of politicians.
"The safest thing for the governor to do is package redistricting changes as part of a government reform plan and get broad support for the entire effort,'' said Mark DiCamillo, director of the Field Poll.
The reform package could include changes to the state's pension plan, a cap on government spending, an overhaul of campaign finance rules and some or all of the recommendations contained in last year's mammoth California Performance Review.
But supporters of a redistricting initiative say the inherent unfairness of the most recent redistricting will be enough to push any effort to victory.
"I'm sitting on the Sunset Strip (in Los Angeles) and my state senator is (Democrat) Sheila Kuehl,'' said Hoffenblum, a former GOP consultant. "Her district extends from the Farmer's Market in Los Angeles to Oxnard (Ventura County). It's ridiculous that the people in Oxnard should have a state senator from West Hollywood.''
E-mail John Wildermuth at jwildermuth@sfchronicle.com.
