GOP Drops In Voting Rolls In Many States, Democrats Up

[jpeyton]

The last two elections have CLEARLY demonstrated what a difference even 1% can make. New data shows that GOP voter registration in many states is down as much as 3% from 2004, while Democrat voter registration is up as much as 10% in some states.

Text

By JENNIFER STEINHAUER

Well before Senators Barack Obama and John McCain rose to the top of their parties, a partisan shift was under way at the local and state level. For more than three years starting in 2005, there has been a reduction in the number of voters who register with the Republican Party and a rise among voters who affiliate with Democrats and, almost as often, with no party at all.

While the implications of the changing landscape for Mr. Obama and Mr. McCain are far from clear, voting experts say the registration numbers may signal the beginning of a move away from Republicans that could affect local, state and national politics over several election cycles. Already, there has been a sharp reversal for Republicans in many statehouses and governors? mansions.

In several states, including the traditional battlegrounds of Nevada and Iowa, Democrats have surprised their own party officials with significant gains in registration. In both of those states, there are now more registered Democrats than Republicans, a flip from 2004. No states have switched to the Republicans over the same period, according to data from 26 of the 29 states in which voters register by party. (Three of the states did not have complete data.)

In six states, including Iowa, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania, the Democratic piece of the registration pie grew more than three percentage points, while the Republican share declined. In only three states ? Kentucky, Louisiana and Oklahoma ? did Republican registration rise while Democratic registration fell, but the Republican increase was less than a percentage point in Kentucky and Oklahoma. Louisiana was the only state to register a gain of more than one percentage point for Republicans as Democratic numbers declined.

Over the same period, the share of the electorate that registers as independent has grown at a faster rate than Republicans or Democrats in 12 states. The rise has been so significant that in states like Arizona, Colorado and North Carolina, nonpartisan voters essentially constitute a third party.

Swings in party registration are not uncommon from one year to the next, or even over two years. Registration, moreover, often has no impact on how people actually vote, and people sometimes switch registration to vote in a primary, then flip again come Election Day.

But for a shift away from one party to sustain itself ? the current registration trend is now in its fourth year ? is remarkable, researchers who study voting patterns say. And though comparable data are not available for the 21 states where voters do not register by party, there is evidence that an increasing number of voters in those states are also moving away from the Republican Party based on the results of recent state and Congressional elections, the researchers said.

?This is very suggestive that there is a fundamental change going on in the electorate,? said Michael P. McDonald, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and an associate professor of political science at George Mason University who has studied voting patterns.

Mr. McDonald added that, more typically, voting and registration patterns tended to even out or revert to the opposing party between elections.

Dick Armey, the former House majority leader and one of the designers of the so-called Republican Revolution of 1994, said: ?Obviously, these are not good numbers for the party to be looking at. Democrats have always had extremely broad multifaceted registration programs.?

But in terms of the presidential election, Mr. Armey said the tea leaves were harder to read.

?I think the key in this one is, where do all these new independent voters break?? he said. ?I think right now, you?ve got a guy in western Pennsylvania saying, ?I am really disgusted right now and I?m not going to register as a Republican anymore, but I really don?t want this guy Obama elected.? ?

Those in charge of state Democratic parties cite a national displeasure with the Bush administration as an impetus for the changing numbers, which run counter to a goal of Karl Rove, President Bush?s former top adviser, to create a permanent realignment in favor of Republicans.

?I think nationally and here, people are kind of tired of the way this administration has been conducting the policies of this country,? said Pat Waak, chairwoman of the Colorado Democratic Party.

Yet while an unpopular war, a faltering economy and a president held in low esteem have combined to hurt the Republican Party, Democrats are also benefiting from demographic changes, including the rise in the number of younger voters and the urbanization of suburbs, which has resulted in a different political flavor there, voting and campaign experts said. The party has also been helped by a willingness to run more pragmatic candidates, who have helped make the party more appealing to a broader swath of the electorate.

Among the 26 states with registration data, the percentage of those who have signed on with Democrats has risen in 15 states since 2004, and the percentage for Republicans has risen in six, according to state data. The number of registered Democrats fell in 11 states, compared with 20 states where Republican registration numbers fell.

In the 26 states and the District of Columbia where registration data were available, the total number of registered Democrats increased by 214,656, while the number of Republicans fell by 1,407,971.

The unsettled political ground has manifested itself in state and local elections. Twenty-three state legislatures are controlled by Democrats and 14 by Republicans, with 12 states with divided chambers (Nebraska has a nonpartisan legislature). After the 2000 election, 16 state legislatures were dominated by Democrats, and 17 by Republicans, with 16 divided.

It is a similar story in governors? mansions. After the 2004 election, there were 28 Republican governors and 22 Democrats; those numbers are now reversed. After the 2000 election, there were only 19 Democratic governors.

Elected Democrats have made significant inroads even in places where Republicans have enjoyed a generation of dominance. In Colorado, for example, Democrats control the governorship and both houses of the Legislature for the first time in over four decades. Last year, Virginia Democrats gained a 21-to-19 majority over Republicans in the State Senate, the first time the party has controlled that body in a decade.

In New Hampshire, Democrats are in control of both the legislative and executive branches for the first time since 1874. In Iowa, Democrats have taken over the statehouse and the governor?s office simultaneously for the first time in a generation.

The changes in state government could have broad implications for Congressional redistricting and on policies like immigration, health care reform and environmental regulation, which are increasingly decided at the state level.

In many states, Democrats have benefited from a rise in younger potential voters, after declines or small increases in the number of those voters in the 1980s and ?90s. The population of 18- to 24-year-olds rose from about 27 million in 2000 to nearly 30 million in 2006, according to Census figures.

Mr. Obama?s candidacy has drawn many young people to register to vote, and some of the recent gains by Democrats have no doubt been influenced by excitement over his campaign. But even before Mr. Obama?s ascendancy among Democrats, younger voters were moving toward the Democratic Party, demographers said.

Dowell Myers, a professor of policy, planning and development at the University of Southern California, also noted that a younger, native-born generation of Latinos who have a tendency to support Democrats is coming of age.

Further, young Americans have migrated in recent years to high-growth states that have traditionally been dominated by Republicans, like Arizona, Colorado and Nevada, which may have had an impact on the changing registration numbers in those places.

The changing face of many American suburbs has also had in impact both in voter registration and voting patterns. In many major metropolitan areas, suburbs that were once largely white and Republican have become more mixed, as people living in cities have been priced out into surrounding areas, and exurban regions have absorbed those residents who once favored the close-in suburbs of cities.

?What we speculate is that density attracts Democrats,? said Robert Lang, director of the Metropolitan Institute at Virginia Tech who has researched voting patterns. ?It is not that people move to those areas and change positions. It tends now to be a self-selection of singles, childless couples,? who tend to vote Democrat more than their married with children counterparts.

In the nation?s 50 largest metropolitan areas, Democrats carried nearly 60 percent of the Congressional vote in 2006 in inner suburbs, up from about 53 percent in 2002, according to Mr. Lang?s research.

This trend is particularly evident in places like St. Louis, southern Pennsylvania and Fairfax County, Va., which President Bush won in 2000 but lost in 2004.

Senator Claire McCaskill, Democrat of Missouri, who won her seat in 2006, picked up the large majority of voters in the St. Louis and Kansas City metropolitan areas, and Senator Jim Webb, also a Democrat, won his seat in a similar manner in Virginia, which has not voted for a Democrat for president since 1964.

Democrats have also succeeded, at least in part, by running centrist candidates where they are most needed. Bill Ritter, the Democratic governor of Colorado and former district attorney of Denver, opposes abortion rights. Among the men who flipped three of Indiana?s eight Congressional seats in the midterm election in 2006, two also oppose both abortion rights and gun control.

What the demographers, political scientists and party officials wonder now is whether the shift of the last few years will be sustained.

?Major political realignment is not just controlling the branches of government,? said Mr. McDonald of the Brookings Institution. ?It is when you decisively do it. We haven?t seen that in modern generations.?

Rebecca Cathcart contributed reporting.

 

[StageLeft]

When I think of the next president I simply assume it will be Obama. It's almost sad that people think McCain has a chance. He really doesn't have much of one at all.

 

[Nebor]

Originally posted by: Skoorb
When I think of the next president I simply assume it will be Obama. It's almost sad that people think McCain has a chance. He really doesn't have much of one at all.

They're tied in the polls, and I don't think America is ready to to have a black, socialist, terrorist sympathizing president. But I've been wrong before.

 

[jpeyton]

Originally posted by: Nebor
They're tied in the polls

CNN Poll Of Polls - Obama Up By 5%

RealClearPolitics - Obama Up By 3.5%, Landslide EC Victory

FiveThirtyEight - Obama Wins Large EC Victory

But I enjoy the fact that you're complacent about McCain's situation. I hope more McCain supporters share your mindset until they walk into the polls in November.

 

[EagleKeeper]

The Clinton nostalgia and the Obama freshness has spurred the Dem interest.

 

[JD50]

Originally posted by: jpeyton

Originally posted by: Nebor
They're tied in the polls

CNN Poll Of Polls - Obama Up By 5%

RealClearPolitics - Obama Up By 3.5%, Landslide EC Victory

FiveThirtyEight - Obama Wins Large EC Victory

But I enjoy the fact that you're complacent about McCain's situation. I hope more McCain supporters share your mindset until they walk into the polls in November.

Obama is running against a horrible candidate who is being portrayed as being no different than our current President, who has a roughly 25% approval rating, and you're all giddy that Obama is up by a whopping 3.5-5%?

 

[bamacre]

What most polls are not showing are the 3rd party votes. They've been shoving them into "unsure" probably because they don't have them on the list.

Zogby is however showing Barr at roughly 6%, no doubt hurting McCain.

 

[Sinsear]

Originally posted by: bamacre
What most polls are not showing are the 3rd party votes. They've been shoving them into "unsure" probably because they don't have them on the list.

Zogby is however showing Barr at roughly 6%, no doubt hurting McCain.

Just like Ron Paul was gonna win all those states in the primaries too right?

 

[Genx87]

I am getting flashbacks of 04 from Jpeyton and we all know how that turned out lol

 

[nageov3t]

I know it's purely anecdotal evidence, but I changed my registration on the voting rolls this year... it doesn't mean I'm going to vote for the same party in the general as I did in the primary.

 

[bamacre]

Originally posted by: Sinsear

Originally posted by: bamacre
What most polls are not showing are the 3rd party votes. They've been shoving them into "unsure" probably because they don't have them on the list.

Zogby is however showing Barr at roughly 6%, no doubt hurting McCain.

Just like Ron Paul was gonna win all those states in the primaries too right?

I never said such things.

 

[lupi]

Originally posted by: jpeyton

Originally posted by: Nebor
They're tied in the polls

CNN Poll Of Polls - Obama Up By 5%

RealClearPolitics - Obama Up By 3.5%, Landslide EC Victory

FiveThirtyEight - Obama Wins Large EC Victory

But I enjoy the fact that you're complacent about McCain's situation. I hope more McCain supporters share your mindset until they walk into the polls in November.

Oh what happened to that mighty 9 point lead.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109...bama-46-McCain-44.aspx

 

[JD50]

Originally posted by: lupi

Originally posted by: jpeyton

Originally posted by: Nebor
They're tied in the polls

CNN Poll Of Polls - Obama Up By 5%

RealClearPolitics - Obama Up By 3.5%, Landslide EC Victory

FiveThirtyEight - Obama Wins Large EC Victory

But I enjoy the fact that you're complacent about McCain's situation. I hope more McCain supporters share your mindset until they walk into the polls in November.

Oh what happened to that mighty 9 point lead.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109...bama-46-McCain-44.aspx

Looks like Obama's lead has dropped by 50%..:Q

 

[nageov3t]

Originally posted by: lupi

Originally posted by: jpeyton

Originally posted by: Nebor
They're tied in the polls

CNN Poll Of Polls - Obama Up By 5%

RealClearPolitics - Obama Up By 3.5%, Landslide EC Victory

FiveThirtyEight - Obama Wins Large EC Victory

But I enjoy the fact that you're complacent about McCain's situation. I hope more McCain supporters share your mindset until they walk into the polls in November.

Oh what happened to that mighty 9 point lead.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109...bama-46-McCain-44.aspx

polls don't matter (except when they do)

 

[First]

Obama will win, but his ties to the far left by association (and not necessarily in reality) will continue to hurt liberal candidates. Progressives always have it tougher than conservatives, though not necessarily during a recession, which is why it would be surprising in the extreme to see McCain win.

 

[Moonbeam]

A mighty wave is coming.

 

[winnar111]

Obama is a rerun of Dukakis and Carter. Been there, done that, voted against them twice.

The Democrats will win big in Congress though.

 

[brencat]

Originally posted by: Skoorb
When I think of the next president I simply assume it will be Obama. It's almost sad that people think McCain has a chance. He really doesn't have much of one at all.

You're dead wrong. If he wins it will be by a hair. I agree with Nebor that I don't believe that the older generation (that outvotes the young people by a substantial margin) is ready to elect a hard-left, inexperienced, and unaccomplished black man to the most powerful seat on Earth. Hate to admit it but the "black" thing is going to be the biggest obstacle IMO for many older folks.

 

[nageov3t]

Originally posted by: Moonbeam
A mighty wave is coming.

waves look awfully pretty till they break against the rocks and fold back into the ocean like they were never there.

 

[techs]

A permanent Democratic majority is far more likely than the far fetched idea that Republicans floated that they could make a permanent Republican majority.
In fact, as American financial power declines versus the rest of the world, the situation is ripe to shift about 5-10 percent of the American public permanently into the class of people who don't identify with the rich and the big corporations.

 

[StageLeft]

Originally posted by: brencat

Originally posted by: Skoorb
When I think of the next president I simply assume it will be Obama. It's almost sad that people think McCain has a chance. He really doesn't have much of one at all.

You're dead wrong. If he wins it will be by a hair. I agree with Nebor that I don't believe that the older generation (that outvotes the young people by a substantial margin) is ready to elect a hard-left, inexperienced, and unaccomplished black man to the most powerful seat on Earth. Hate to admit it but the "black" thing is going to be the biggest obstacle IMO for many older folks.

He won't win by as much as he should, given how the last 8 years have been, but deep in my nethers I just don't see McCain winning, whether he loses by a landslide or a gnat's pubes

 

[Lemon law]

What is all this democratic and republican huffing and puffing? There is just one poll that matters and that will occur on 11/4/08.

If nothing else, the world will look different than it does now come Early November. My guess, unknown future events will doom McCain.

 

[Jaskalas]

Originally posted by: Moonbeam
A mighty wave is coming.

I just wish it wasn't Karl Marx's wave. I rather enjoyed the Bill of Rights while it lasted.

 

[StageLeft]

Originally posted by: Lemon law
What is all this democratic and republican huffing and puffing? There is just one poll that matters and that will occur on 11/4/08.

If nothing else, the world will look different than it does now come Early November. My guess, unknown future events will doom McCain.

LL, every time somebody discusses potential future events in this election you seem to allllllllllllllways try to defer to when the actual vote is, that is such a kill joy, seriously! Let us enjoy ourselves.

 

[bamacre]

Originally posted by: techs
... American public permanently into the class of people who don't identify with the rich and the big corporations.

:laugh:

Go ahead, keep believing the Democrats aren't working for wealthy people and big corporations, just like the Republicans. Just different wealthy people, and different big corporations.