I think 1.3 million phones is a low ball number. I honestly think it is 2+ million from everything I have read.
As for the numbers, it's better to be approximately right than precisely wrong. That analyst who said 300,000 is both approximately and precisely wrong.
Conjecture is pulling one's numbers out of ones ass. This is more of an educated guess. See, I actually read about this stuff. And have for the past month. I know it's not 1 a day. I know that it's more than 2 a day. I know 8,9 or 10 a day is way overreaching. 3 is still a bit low. If anything ,that 5 should be a 4 or a 6. So, I went with 5. You know, being approximately right? if it is really 4 a day does it really matter? no.
Tell me though, what is your conjecture?
Except you're approximately wrong, too. "Everything you've read" with sales numbers, not production estimates, have been anecdotal evidence from front line sales at a few specific locations, and you're projecting that across 5000 stores without taking into account how widely ranging each store's sales are. Are all these stores located in urban areas where journalists are likely to interview? No, most aren't. Most are tiny kiosks in the middle of malls in the middle of small cities. So do they sell on average the same amount of phones? Probably not. I bet some of these places don't even sell 5 phones a day, total. You don't know, I don't know, and you definitely don't have an educated guess.
It'd be the same as me saying "I know 4 people out of my group of 40 friends who are planning to buy Z10 over the next month" and projecting that across Canada. Which would over 3 million sales. Absurd, isn't it? But I know it's not 1 friend, or 0 friend, or 5 or 6. Does it matter if its 3? No. "Approximately right", right?
No carrier has gone on record with any numbers; only wirelesswave have said it was outselling the GS3 and iphone 5. So, a Canadian branded phone on first week of release outselling, in Canada, the iphone which has been out since Oct, and the GS3, which is nearly a year old and has a successor announcing in less than a month? Shocking. But again, no numbers. And despite such news, every analyst have been cutting estimates. The only other positive outlook came out of the blackberry CEO - someone with an absolute interest to see the stock price go up.
That's why I said you were overreaching with those projections.
It's pretty apparent from your active replies, tone, and your self admittance that you're financially vested in blackberry doing well. So maybe you're just seeing everything through a filter, and why you're pushing this phone so hard despite not having one. I mean, you also think blackberry is worth $45 - contrary to what every analyst and trader in the world has thought for the last two years, and more than 3.5x its current trading price. I'd love to see your financial modelling and your basis to arrive at such numbers, and I hope it's not filled with the same "approximately right" projections that you've used to estimate current sales. Maybe you're actually onto something that all these analysts missed, but most likely not. I'm inclined to side with the analysts on this one.
This will be my last post on this subject barring any reasonable financial modelling out of you. Your bias is apparent and this whole thread is cancer.
