Originally posted by: boomerang
Originally posted by: ProfJohn
Originally posted by: boomerang
Save your ire. GM is not going to survive. There is only enough demand to sustain one domestic and it's going to be Ford.
Are you clueless or just trolling?
GM, Ford and Chrysler are ALL bigger than many well know foreign car companies.
Daimler, BMW, Mitsubishi, Kia, Mazda, and Volvo are all smaller companies and yet they still survive.
The problem of the big 3 isn't the number of cars they make, it is the inability to make money at that level of sales. If they can shrink their size then they could survive.
I'm not trolling at all. We've had three domestic auto manufacturers because sales justified it. Many analysts are now saying that projected sales will not support three domestics. This I believe to be true. We were heading this way even before the financial melt down. Surely you could see this coming?
It's easy to say shrink the company and all is well, but in reality it doesn't work that way. They can get rid of people, but getting rid of their plants is another story. There are no buyers for these facilities. They must then be maintained, insured, guarded, heated and taxes must be paid on them. The costs involved in mothballing a plant the size of a small city is astronomical in and of itself. When times were good, a buyer could most likely be found. Who needs more capacity right now and has the means to purchase a shuttered auto plant? In addition, what a lot of the general public doesn't understand is that many plants get closed even in good times because they cannot be run efficiently anymore. They cannot be modernized cost-effectively to utilize new, leaner, manufacturing processes.
This is a gross simplification, but the basics are outlined. There are costs that can be reduced and eliminated, but there are others that cannot.
Chrysler is a goner. Cerberus had no intention, and has no intention of keeping this company intact and alive. The loans have gotten in the way as has the business climate, but they will go down. Quote me on this for all eternity, because I live in SE Michigan and those of us that live here know this.
The only hope for both Ford
and GM is that enough foreign auto manufacturers go under for them to fill the void. Do you see that happening? With demand for cars as it is, there is no void to fill. Mulally at Ford, hocked the entire company, lock, stock and barrel. This is why they have the cash they do and are in the best shape of the three. Whether he's a genius, a visionary or just lucky only time will tell.
GM is a basket case. The same people that got the company into trouble are now trying to get them out. How does that work? Did their mindsets just change overnight? Wagoner is a bean-counter and he let the company get into the state it's in. When an accountant gets the company in financial trouble, what's the first thing that goes through your mind? I, personally, have zero confidence that he can pull this off.
I'm sure you've heard the term "economies of scale"? Well, when your company shrinks, your costs go up. Your steel supplier charges you a higher price when you're ordering 1/3 of what you were before. Extrapolate from there.
It's going to take a miracle to pull this economy of ours out of this giant hole were in. A hole that has the bottom sinking deeper week by week. I don't think it can be done at all.
Spare me the bankruptcy rhetoric. Delphi, GM's largest supplier has been trying to pull out of bankruptcy for over 3 years and despite large infusions of cash (from GM) they have been unable to pull out. The recent news you're seeing about GM negotiating to buy a portion of Delphi back is a desperate attempt to keep the core of the company alive (to supply parts to GM) because Delphi is going under for good. GM is going to close at least two assembly plants (that they'll admit to at this time) and have announced the layoff of 5000 salaried employees. This may sound good to you, but it's the death knell sounding. I'm sure you've seen the news about suppliers needing a bailout? This is real. This is not corporate greed, the automakers had these guys running on razer thin profit margins for years before the shit hit the fan. I'm surprised they've held on this long.
I'm glad that you're upbeat and have a positive attitude. We need people like that. I am an admitted pessimist but I also live near the core of the domestic automakers. Things are bad now, but the future will make today the good old days.
I hope I'm wrong.