OK time to dispell the myth that weather forcast '5 days' is poor actually is 80% accurate
http://www.robinstewart.com/pe...rn/wfbc/computers.html Thus, in 1980, predictions beyond about 5 days were essentially useless; but by 1998 5-day forecasts were fairly accurate (80% anomaly correlation). Looked at in a slightly different way, we can now predict 5 days ahead with the same accuracy as we could predict only 3.5 days ahead in 1980.
In spite of anecdotal evidence ,
they do get it right frequently in the short range.
One of my best friends is a senior metorologist with Environment Canada who hires all kinds of code monkeys to build and create the models.
I'll take his opinion over yours, sorry.
Our department has a whole division setup to mitigate climatic changes and extreme events planning now needed.
Yes, they all debate why climate change is happening, CO2, methane, solar flares , whatever, but no-one is of the opinion that it isn't happening. We do studies to see how much methane off-gassing a water body produces with submerged rotting vegitation.
Methane is 20X CO2 as a greenhouse gas in impact BTW. So we don't even worry about how to effect the climate the more imprtant role is how we respond to it.
If the solare flares theory pans out we may actually be heading to much cooler days ahead and we need to prepare for that eventuality as well.
In fact the one PHD beside my office said he hopes it isn't solare flares and it is man made cause we can't really do anything about the sun.
I worry much more about peak oil than climate actually because I know man can adapt to climate, its why we live in every corner of the globe but once we run out of cheap energy and thats what peak oil is. The absence of cheap energy, man as a species will potentially have to go through a lot of change in a MUCH shorter time frame and that we have been proven to be poor adapters of.
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