Germany's new boom: making money by making stuff

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Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
62,365
14,686
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Guess what, we all used to be farmers a 100 years ago too, things change. Manufacturing as percentage of the workforce is in decline worldwide, even in low wage countries. Productivity is moving people out of factories worldwide and we are all better off for it. You do realize on average service sector jobs pay more than manufacturing jobs?

That doesn't mean there are realistically enough of them to sustain the middle class, or that they can possibly overcome a $500B/yr balance of payments deficit...

Where are all those jobs promised by the boosters of supply side Reaganomics & offshoring, anyway?
 

Phokus

Lifer
Nov 20, 1999
22,994
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Guess what, we all used to be farmers a 100 years ago too, things change. Manufacturing as percentage of the workforce is in decline worldwide, even in low wage countries. Productivity is moving people out of factories worldwide and we are all better off for it. You do realize on average service sector jobs pay more than manufacturing jobs?

Guess what, service sector jobs aren't immune to outsourcing either and we don't have enough fucking jobs to go around. Not only that, you want to cut government jobs which would bring even MORE people to look for private sector jobs that just aren't there.

Also, you can't have it both ways in regards to destroying middle class jobs and reducing welfare. You can't ship all the jobs out of the country, and also take away welfare at the same time, otherwise you have a violent revolution eventually. Choose one.
 

Phokus

Lifer
Nov 20, 1999
22,994
779
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That doesn't mean there are realistically enough of them to sustain the middle class, or that they can possibly overcome a $500B/yr balance of payments deficit...

Where are all those jobs promised by the boosters of supply side Reaganomics & offshoring, anyway?

At this point, Reaganomic idiots are too embarrassed to use their famous bullshit about how supply side is going to trickle down to everyone else. Now they just scream socialism without much argument about the benefits to the middle class anymore. Their policies have been a complete failure.
 

charrison

Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
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Guess what, service sector jobs aren't immune to outsourcing either and we don't have enough fucking jobs to go around. Not only that, you want to cut government jobs which would bring even MORE people to look for private sector jobs that just aren't there.

In the end no one is guaranteed a job. The effects of outsourcing are far overhyped as they just do no work out that well and any outsources jobs have returned for that reason.
Same thing is happening to some extent with manufacturing, rising wages in china are making it more economical to bring those jobs back here. And just so you know exports to china are growing faster than imports from china.

Also, you can't have it both ways in regards to destroying middle class jobs and reducing welfare. You can't ship all the jobs out of the country, and also take away welfare at the same time, otherwise you have a violent revolution eventually. Choose one.

The middle class is not being destroyed. The economy is and will continues to recover and the jobs will return.
 

Phokus

Lifer
Nov 20, 1999
22,994
779
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In the end no one is guaranteed a job. The effects of outsourcing are far overhyped as they just do no work out that well and any outsources jobs have returned for that reason.
Same thing is happening to some extent with manufacturing, rising wages in china are making it more economical to bring those jobs back here. And just so you know exports to china are growing faster than imports from china.

Bolded part i definitely agree with... well except for the rich. "Socialism for the rich, capitalism for the poor" and all that. Rising wages in China is creating some capital flight to places like vietnam actually.


The middle class is not being destroyed. The economy is and will continues to recover and the jobs will return.

Holy shit you're delusional. This is why we're fucked. I don't think even rational rightwingers would argue that the middleclass ISN'T being hollowed out. The fact that corporations are making money hand over fist WITHOUT Americans should scare the shit out of you. Something like 33% of their profits were from overseas 10 years ago, it's 50% now (something along those lines, from an article i read).
 
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charrison

Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
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Bolded part i definitely agree with... well except for the rich. "Socialism for the rich, capitalism for the poor" and all that. Rising wages in China is creating some capital flight to places like vietnam actually.

That is happening too, but some of it coming back as well.


Holy shit you're delusional. This is why we're fucked. I don't think even rational rightwingers would argue that the middleclass ISN'T being hollowed out. The fact that corporations are making money hand over fist WITHOUT Americans should scare the shit out of you. Something like 33% of their profits were from overseas 10 years ago, it's 50% now (something along those lines, from an article i read).

You know why more profits are coming overseas? Did you ever consider that emerging nations are buying more stuff than they did 10 years ago and those evil multinationals are there there to sell them stuff.

http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2011/01/manufacturing-jobs-grow-for-1st-time.html

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704029704576088412618821224.html
As the economy recovered and big companies began upgrading old factories or building new ones, the number of manufacturing jobs in the U.S. last year grew 1.2%, or 136,000, the first increase since 1997, government data show. That total will grow again this year, according to economists at IHS Global Insight and Moody's Analytics.
Journal Community

James Hagerty has encouraging news from the U.S. manufacturing sector, which is adding more jobs than it's losing for the first time in more than a decade.

Among others, major auto makers—both domestic and transplants—are hiring. Ford Motor Co. announced last week it planned to add 7,000 workers over the next two years.

The economists' projections for this year—calling for a gain of about 2.5%, or 330,000 manufacturing jobs—won't come close to making up for the nearly six million lost since 1997. But manufacturing should be at least a modest contributor to total U.S. employment in the next couple of years, these economists say.
 

Phokus

Lifer
Nov 20, 1999
22,994
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That is happening too, but some of it coming back as well.




You know why more profits are coming overseas? Did you ever consider that emerging nations are buying more stuff than they did 10 years ago and those evil multinationals are there there to sell them stuff.

http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2011/01/manufacturing-jobs-grow-for-1st-time.html

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704029704576088412618821224.html





That's great that we got some manufacturing jobs back in 2010, but that's not a trend yet... after 40 some odd years of decline

From our own article:

All of this doesn't herald a miracle recovery for manufacturing, which accounted for 11% of U.S. economic output in 2009, down from 27% in 1950. In a new book, Dow Chemical CEO Andrew Liveris, argues that U.S. manufacturing faces continued decline unless the government comes up with a strategy to boost it, including bigger tax breaks and government support for R&D.

I mean just look at the graph:

mfg2.jpg


It's like a rounding error compared to the carnage that we've experienced.
 

charrison

Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
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That's great that we got some manufacturing jobs back in 2010, but that's not a trend yet... after 40 some odd years of decline

From our own article:



I mean just look at the graph:

mfg2.jpg


It's like a rounding error compared to the carnage that we've experienced.

You right, but we are better off after that "carnage". This creative destruction maybe painful, but we move forward because of it.
 

Phokus

Lifer
Nov 20, 1999
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779
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You right, but we are better off after that "carnage". This creative destruction maybe painful, but we move forward because of it.

I just don't see it, if you look at that graph, you could see those 2 jumps (even higher than 2010) in the mid 90's and i'm sure that was a cause for hope as well, then manufacturing gets absolutely DESTROYED again.
 

charrison

Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
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I just don't see it, if you look at that graph, you could see those 2 jumps (even higher than 2010) in the mid 90's and i'm sure that was a cause for hope as well, then manufacturing gets absolutely DESTROYED again.

The reality is service jobs pay better than manufacturing and that productivity is killing those manufacturing jobs, not outsourcing. Why do you want to keep lower paying jobs over higher paying ones?
 

Infohawk

Lifer
Jan 12, 2002
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Yet their taxes are STILL higher than ours are and they have a very high VAT tax to boot:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Income_Tax_Germany_2010.png



And they have something called a 'trade tax' which i've never even heard of here:



Their taxes are still really frigging high compared to ours AND they pay a HELLUVA lot more for their manufacturing workers than we do.

In fact, taxes are 40% of their GDP, while only 28% of GDP in America:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_tax_revenue_as_percentage_of_GDP

Now explain to me why, even though many/most of our corporations dodge the responsibility of paying taxes via loopholes and we've cut the personal income tax to ludicrously low levels that our manufacturing jobs haven't come back since we're doing 'much' better taxwise?

So you think they're higher taxes are causing more manufacturing jobs? Have you ever heard that correlation does not equal causation? The article suggests that it was the conservative reforms that are paying off, not high taxes.
 

sandorski

No Lifer
Oct 10, 1999
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So you think they're higher taxes are causing more manufacturing jobs? Have you ever heard that correlation does not equal causation? The article suggests that it was the conservative reforms that are paying off, not high taxes.

It's not that simple. If their Taxes were too high, then Cuts would help. Simply Cutting Taxes doesn't automatically result in Jobs.
 
Oct 30, 2004
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The reality is service jobs pay better than manufacturing and that productivity is killing those manufacturing jobs, not outsourcing. Why do you want to keep lower paying jobs over higher paying ones?

Oh, we'd love it if lower paying jobs were replaced with higher paying jobs. The problem is, that's not happening, which may be part of the reason why 17 million people with college degrees are employed in jobs that don't require or make use of a college education. Contrary to what free market dogmatists might believe, a great many people with degrees in STEM fields are unemployed, underemployed, and/or low-paid.

If anything, the trend is that middle class jobs are being replaced with poverty-wage retail service jobs.
 

dmcowen674

No Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
54,889
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www.alienbabeltech.com
Oh, we'd love it if lower paying jobs were replaced with higher paying jobs. The problem is, that's not happening, which may be part of the reason why 17 million people with college degrees are employed in jobs that don't require or make use of a college education. Contrary to what free market dogmatists might believe, a great many people with degrees in STEM fields are unemployed, underemployed, and/or low-paid.

If anything, the trend is that middle class jobs are being replaced with poverty-wage retail service jobs.

That is the Republican designed plan.

They also want wages to roll back to $2 hr for the manufacturing they do bring back here to compete with India and China.
 

amyklai

Senior member
Nov 11, 2008
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http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2011/01/...ur-global.html

Yup, we dont make anything.

This blog post was already linked in another thread. The data in the graph is fishy.

In 2008 for example, Germany had exports of 984 billion Euros (from here: http://de.wikipedia.org/w/index.php..._deutschland.png&filetimestamp=20101022031216).,

The yearly average exchange rate of the Dollar to the Euro for 2008 was 0.683 (taken from http://www.irs.gov/businesses/small/international/article/0,,id=206089,00.html), so that means the 984 billion Euros equal around 1440.7 billion USD.

The graph in Perry's blog post shows Germany's exports for 2008 well below 800 billion Dollar. That's just wrong.
 
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Doppel

Lifer
Feb 5, 2011
13,306
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It warms my heart that even in light of the charts showing the middle and lower classes stagnant, even in light of a post-recession situation in which corporate profits are the highest they have ever been (literally) and unemployment at a historically very high number there are still those who believe everything is fine. They continue with the market-knows-best mantra.

The idea that the exit of manufacturing--which is now known clearly to precede the exit of R&D as well--to replace it with service jobs that pay less (typical person who leaves manufacturing to go to service would take a pay cut, I believe) is somehow good for the country is a sad one.

Andy Grove, co-founder of Intel on this:
http://www.stanford.edu/group/knowl...07/26/andy-grove-how-america-can-create-jobs/
 

charrison

Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
17,033
1
81
This blog post was already linked in another thread. The data in the graph is fishy.

In 2008 for example, Germany had exports of 984 billion Euros (from here: http://de.wikipedia.org/w/index.php..._deutschland.png&filetimestamp=20101022031216).,

The yearly average exchange rate of the Dollar to the Euro for 2008 was 0.683 (taken from http://www.irs.gov/businesses/small/international/article/0,,id=206089,00.html), so that means the 984 billion Euros equal around 1440.7 billion USD.

The graph in Perry's blog post shows Germany's exports for 2008 well below 800 billion Dollar. That's just wrong.

It appears the graphs are measured in 2005 dollars if that helps.
 

charrison

Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
17,033
1
81
It warms my heart that even in light of the charts showing the middle and lower classes stagnant, even in light of a post-recession situation in which corporate profits are the highest they have ever been (literally) and unemployment at a historically very high number there are still those who believe everything is fine. They continue with the market-knows-best mantra.

The idea that the exit of manufacturing--which is now known clearly to precede the exit of R&D as well--to replace it with service jobs that pay less (typical person who leaves manufacturing to go to service would take a pay cut, I believe) is somehow good for the country is a sad one.

Andy Grove, co-founder of Intel on this:
http://www.stanford.edu/group/knowl...07/26/andy-grove-how-america-can-create-jobs/

Service jobs on average pay more than manufacturing.
 

charrison

Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
17,033
1
81
Oh, we'd love it if lower paying jobs were replaced with higher paying jobs. The problem is, that's not happening, which may be part of the reason why 17 million people with college degrees are employed in jobs that don't require or make use of a college education. Contrary to what free market dogmatists might believe, a great many people with degrees in STEM fields are unemployed, underemployed, and/or low-paid.

If anything, the trend is that middle class jobs are being replaced with poverty-wage retail service jobs.

That may all be true, but it is still true that those with a college degree on average make more and have unemployment rates 1/2 of what the general population does.

Retail jobs as a percentage of the workforce have not increased over time either.
 

Phokus

Lifer
Nov 20, 1999
22,994
779
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So you think they're higher taxes are causing more manufacturing jobs? Have you ever heard that correlation does not equal causation? The article suggests that it was the conservative reforms that are paying off, not high taxes.

Dude, stop putting words in my mouth. I was putting your excerpt into perspective, Germany's taxes are still some of the highest in the world, WAY higher than the US. Just think about the implications of that: If high taxes are supposed to cause capital to flee or cause slow/negative growth, why hasn't it in Germany? Why do conservatives here bitch about taxes when Germany seems to be doing much better than we are with higher taxes? Why aren't *WE* doing better when we have a freer market AND have lower taxes than Germany?

Germany:

1) MUCH MUCH higher manufacturing wages than the US

2) MUCH higher taxes

3) More regulations giving power to the workers, less power to capital/owners of capital.

Your argument makes no sense whatsoever. There's every reason for Germany's manufacturing base to crumble based on conservative America's arguments.

Germany is anything but a low-wage country: The average hourly compensation -- wages plus benefits -- of German manufacturing workers is $48, well above the $32 hourly average for their American counterparts. Yet Germany is an export giant while the U.S. is the colossus of imports.
These domestic employee-retention pacts are an outgrowth of Germany's more consensual, stakeholder version of capitalism. German workers' organizations have a far greater say than American workers do in the conduct of their employers. By law, employees in large companies get the same number of seats on corporate boards that management does. Unions and management collaborate to ensure that German manufacturing retains and expands its high-quality products and markets. IG Metall has been working with automakers, for instance, to train workers to mass-produce electric cars. "Our goal is to really retain high-value-added manufacturing in Germany," Martin Allspach, the union's policy director, told me when I visited IG Metall headquarters in Frankfurt in November.
The German experience also shows that the structure of finance can have a profound effect on the retention of manufacturing. An entire stratum of German banking, municipally owned savings banks, provides the funds that enable the nation's prosperous, largely family-owned midsized manufacturers, the Mittelstand, to upgrade themselves into export dynamos.
About two-thirds of Germany's small and midsized businesses get their loans from these banks, which shun capital markets and are restricted to doing business in their own towns. "Over the past decade, banking largely became a self-fulfilling activity," says Patrick Steinpass, the chief economist of the national organization of savings banks. "But our banks are restricted to doing business in their regions; they have to concentrate on the real economy."

http://www.prospect.org/cs/articles?article=business_is_booming
 
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Apr 17, 2005
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This blog post was already linked in another thread. The data in the graph is fishy.

In 2008 for example, Germany had exports of 984 billion Euros (from here: http://de.wikipedia.org/w/index.php..._deutschland.png&filetimestamp=20101022031216).,

The yearly average exchange rate of the Dollar to the Euro for 2008 was 0.683 (taken from http://www.irs.gov/businesses/small/international/article/0,,id=206089,00.html), so that means the 984 billion Euros equal around 1440.7 billion USD.

The graph in Perry's blog post shows Germany's exports for 2008 well below 800 billion Dollar. That's just wrong.

you might be correct but don't exports include everything? for example, isn't indias IT sector outsourcing considered part of export even though it isn't manufacturing?
 

Phokus

Lifer
Nov 20, 1999
22,994
779
126
The reality is service jobs pay better than manufacturing and that productivity is killing those manufacturing jobs, not outsourcing. Why do you want to keep lower paying jobs over higher paying ones?

It's nice to have a mix of jobs. White collar office jobs aren't immune to going oversees. As i've seen around where i work and just about everyone else has.
 

Londo_Jowo

Lifer
Jan 31, 2010
17,303
158
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londojowo.hypermart.net
Hogwash. It's the fact that their structure of corporate governance grants workers a stake and a say in how things are done. Employers recognize that they have obligations to the communities that have provided them with the means to do well, rather than the leveraged buyout lootocracy and Wall St flimflam artists of America.

Right, you didn't bother to read the link that pointed to VAT taxes that made German made products less expensive than foreign made products. The factories also downsized their work force while maintaining production levels.
 

amyklai

Senior member
Nov 11, 2008
262
8
81
Right, you didn't bother to read the link that pointed to VAT taxes that made German made products less expensive than foreign made products. The factories also downsized their work force while maintaining production levels.
I don't understand how VAT should have anything to do with it. Germany has a VAT of 19% that is added to all products, domestic or foreign. How does that favor domestic products?