Originally posted by: TastesLikeChicken
Originally posted by: Moonbeam
Assume that the temp gradient remains constant between two storms, a and b. a contains twice the heat energy of b. Which storm will be more potentially destructive. You suggest that heating in the upper atmosphere may well have a dampening effect. What is the scientific basis for this 'may'? Is it simply postulated to account for no measurable wind speed increase based on statistical analysis of records over a warming trend? If so there is an other variable here not represented so far that have come to my attention. A 100 mph wind, for example over a 10 sq mile area is not as potentially damaging as a 100 mph wind over a 20 sq mile area. I still have trouble believing that storms with greater heat energy could possible be only of equal or less destructive power as ones with less, on average. But while I am not completely familiar with your data or its trustworthiness, I do not think the data should be ignored if it is real.
First you need to explain where or how storm A got twice the heat energy of storm B. As I said before, the temperature gradient is one of many factors, though an improtant one. Winds aloft, jet streams, and the counter-rotating upper-level high above each storm also factor in. There's also the influence of troughs, ridges, or other weather systems in close proximity to any storm.
The scientific basis for my statement for the dampening effect goes directly back to temperature gradient, one of the driving forces of the strength of a storm. If the lower levels of the atmosphere are warmer, but so are are the upper levels to the same degree, it's a wash. You don't have an increase in the gradient you don't get more powerful storms from temperature increases.
As far as your wind example, one must take location into consideration as well. A 100 mph wind over New York city has far greater potential for damage than a 100 mph wind blowing over prairie land, regardless of the fetch.
What I do know is that for years and years and years the tobacco industry stonewalled the scientific fact that tobacco is dangerous. This is true every time science threatens somebody's money. We know that the oil industry has the most to loose from regulation and that Bush and his crowd are oil. We know that to this day Cheney will not tell the public how the energy policy was made. I find it incredible that any thinking person would not have their doubts.
Well before you have doubts it would be nice if someone showed some actual evidence that the strength and/or frequency of hurricanes is increasing, let alone increasing due to global warming. Nobody has shown that yet and all the facts thus far point in the opposite direction.