Look here
http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/president/whos-ahead/polling/index.html#US_2
after the GOP convention, Mr Obama and Mr McCain were within the error of a number of polls.
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I can't deny that Siddhartha is not in fact correct.
But Siddhartha fails to factor in three things.
1. Immediately after a properly staged managed political convention, be it Democratic or Republican, there is a typical bounce up in the polls that only lasts a week or so. About the only recent time that failed to happen was the 1968 Democratic convention that nominated Humphrey amidst a bitter Democratic civil war. And Mayor Daley staged police riots deepened the feud.
2. At the convention, Sarah Palin looked like a brilliant VP pick on the part of John McCain, as Sarah wowed the GOP faithful with her Drill Baby Drill speech. A week or so later, all by herself, and with no dirty Democratic tricks, Sarah Palin gave some press interviews, and convinced the bulk of the American people she was a total nutcase. Of course Sarah won the hearts of maybe 35% of the GOP electorate, but lost the votes of 65% GOP electorate and all the Democratic electorate.
3. But the real thing that really killed all McCain chances were the revelations starting in the last 2 weeks of 9/2008, that a big economic meltdown was imminent. And when McCain tried to poo poo the fear by stating his faith in the economy, prefaced with his statement he was no economic expert, his fatal nosedive started. Because by early October it was clear to everyone, the meltdown was worse than everyone thought.