Gavin Newsom is a progressive tour de force nationally

[Pens1566]

Reality check - that is what the primary process is all about - to get people onboard or offboard. I'm pretty sure the national electorate would respond well to a more youthful and fresh face along with more energy and better public appearances. Let the primaries find the best one.

Would you care for a reality check about Biden's numbers among Democrats and Independents these days? It's grim. It's not even a definite he would beat Trump, though more on the likely side.

First, polls this far out are meaningless. If they were valid, we'd have had president "Jeb!" and a few others that were complete losers.

Second, the polling about people not wanting Biden to run again are sort of misleading. They should be interpreted as "Yeah, we'd prefer someone else run that is younger/etc, but we're gonna vote for him in the general against Trump".

Third, Trump is the GQP nominee unless he drops out himself or dies before the election.

 

[Pens1566]

I'm talking about actual election results where Biden won California by a wider margin than Newsom did.

If your thought is that despite performing worse than Biden in California that Newsom is going to perform better than Biden in places like Pennsylvania you're delusional.

It should also be noted that ‘inspire the base’ was the campaign strategy Trump used in 2020. It is, and always has been, a dumb strategy.

To be fair, I wouldn't put much stock in comparing a Biden/Trump vs Newsom/whoever result in CA. I'd think it has more to do with Trump than anything else.

 

[MrSquished]

I'm talking about actual election results where Biden won California by a wider margin than Newsom did.

If your thought is that despite performing worse than Biden in California that Newsom is going to perform better than Biden in places like Pennsylvania you're delusional.

It should also be noted that ‘inspire the base’ was the campaign strategy Trump used in 2020. It is, and always has been, a dumb strategy.

I never used inspire the base. Care to quote me? The Dem candidate in 2024 has to inspire anybody in the center to the base as equally as possible. I never once said the candidate should just inspire the base. You should try to stop making these things up in your head.

Have you seen Biden's numbers recently? You do realize that 2020 and 2022 compared to 2024 are ages apart in politics as well right? Biden's negativity numbers these days are petty damn impressive. 2020 was the perfect storm, right man, right time, right place. This ain't 2020 anymore.

 

[fskimospy]

I never used inspire the base. Care to quote me? The Dem candidate in 2024 has to inspire anybody in the center to the base as equally as possible. I never once said the candidate should just inspire the base. You should try to stop making these things up in your head.

Have you seen Biden's numbers recently? You do realize that 2020 and 2022 compared to 2024 are ages apart in politics as well right? Biden's negativity numbers these days are petty damn impressive. 2020 was the perfect storm, right man, right time, right place. This ain't 2020 anymore.

So basically hand waving the fact that Biden performs better electorally than Newsom away.

Gee, who would have guessed.

 

[fskimospy]

To be fair, I wouldn't put much stock in comparing a Biden/Trump vs Newsom/whoever result in CA. I'd think it has more to do with Trump than anything else.

I mean no two elections are ever identical but the available evidence does not support the idea that Newsom would outperform Biden in a presidential election, especially in the decisive states.

 

[MrSquished]

So basically hand waving the fact that Biden performs better electorally than Newsom away.

Gee, who would have guessed.

Realizing that four years is an eternity in politics is handwaving things away and basing things on actual current polling instead?

That's fascinating logic. THere are a shit ton of reasons why the 2020 election was not like 2016. And there are a shitload of reasons why 2024 is not the same as 2020. Any decent self-respecting campaign manager of any campaign would know this. I mean this is basic politicking 101.

Of course, you think Greenman is a smart dude, so lord knows what you think makes sense anymore.

 

[MrSquished]

First, polls this far out are meaningless. If they were valid, we'd have had president "Jeb!" and a few others that were complete losers.

Second, the polling about people not wanting Biden to run again are sort of misleading. They should be interpreted as "Yeah, we'd prefer someone else run that is younger/etc, but we're gonna vote for him in the general against Trump".

Third, Trump is the GQP nominee unless he drops out himself or dies before the election.

I only brought up polls to respond to @fskimospy bringing up even older poll/result numbers

 

[pauldun170]

I'll take anti vax over lgbtq support and illegal immigration run amok.

Wait....
You were joking right?
This feels like sarcasm but now other folks reactions are making me nervous

 

[fskimospy]

Realizing that four years is an eternity in politics is handwaving things away and basing things on actual current polling instead?

That's fascinating logic. THere are a shit ton of reasons why the 2020 election was not like 2016. And there are a shitload of reasons why 2024 is not the same as 2020. Any decent self-respecting campaign manager of any campaign would know this. I mean this is basic politicking 101.

Of course, you think Greenman is a smart dude, so lord knows what you think makes sense anymore.

'Elections are not the same' - thank you for this penetrating insight, lol. Biden is a much stronger general election candidate than Newsom is, primarily due to Biden's incumbency advantage and his more moderate politics. More moderate candidates generally do better than less moderate ones.

All that aside I feel like you should take a step back from the internet. You do not seem well emotionally and are getting consumed by petty online grievances. I almost never put people on ignore but you're definitely trending towards ignore territory because you provide nothing other than crazy rants and personal insults.

 

[MrSquished]

'Elections are not the same' - thank you for this penetrating insight, lol. Biden is a much stronger general election candidate than Newsom is, primarily due to Biden's incumbency advantage and his more moderate politics. More moderate candidates generally do better than less moderate ones.

All that aside I feel like you should take a step back from the internet. You do not seem well emotionally and are getting consumed by petty online grievances. I almost never put people on ignore but you're definitely trending towards ignore territory because you provide nothing other than crazy rants and personal insults.

Oh no, the guy who lies and misrepresents when he might look wrong or foolish and refuses to answer questions until backed into a corner might block me. Shiver me timbers.

And who still thinks Ron DeSantis would respect democracy. Which is bonkers naive. I used to respect your opinions, but the last few months have shown you don't have a clue about way too many things in our current political environment. I could care less if you block me. If I need a break from the internet, so do you, you need to spend some time in reality somewhere - because it seems you aren't either in two or three dimensional land.

Neither Newsom or Whitmer, or others that deserve a shot to prove themselves, are so much less moderate than Biden, which you are implying about Newsom here. Also how do you settle your not moderate views that the court should just simply be packed, in these pretty not moderate times, by only supporting what you seem to feel is the most moderate candidate?

 

[fskimospy]

Oh no, the guy who lies and misrepresents when he might look wrong or foolish and refuses to answer questions until backed into a corner might block me. Shiver me timbers.

And who still thinks Ron DeSantis would respect democracy. Which is bonkers naive. I used to respect your opinions, but the last few months have shown you don't have a clue about way too many things in our current political environment. I could care less if you block me. If I need a break from the internet, so do you, you need to spend some time in reality somewhere - because it seems you aren't either in two or three dimensional land.

Neither Newsom or Whitmer, or others that deserve a shot to prove themselves, are so much less moderate than Biden, which you are implying about Newsom here. Also how do you settle your not moderate views that the court should just simply be packed, in these pretty not moderate times, by only supporting what you seem to feel is the most moderate candidate?

I'm not running for office, so my moderation or lack thereof is irrelevant.

Anyways, sounds like we are in agreement about blocking you. Seeya!

 

[brycejones]

Wait....
You were joking right?
This feels like sarcasm but now other folks reactions are making me nervous

Based on his own responses, he is not joking.

 

[GodisanAtheist]

IMO places like California and (now) Flordia are political dead ends, as bizarre as that sounds. In a practical sense large diverse states with powerful economies seem like they should be a natural progression or stepping stone to national politics but they end up becoming such lightning rods in our eternal culture war that IMO they just come with too much god damn baggage.

Gavin Newsom (and California) are automatically non-starters for half the country, much like Ron Desantis (and Flordia) are non-starters for the other half.

An interesting list if you're interested:

List of presidents of the United States by home state - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

By birth, California has only produced one president, Texas two, Florida 0.

The top is Virgina (sorta not fair, but hey) with Eight.

By primary political affiliation, California has produced three presidents and Texas three as well. Florida is still sitting at 0.

The top is New York (again, kinda not fair given its original colony status) with seven.

 

[fskimospy]

IMO places like California and (now) Flordia are political dead ends, as bizarre as that sounds. In a practical sense large diverse states with powerful economies seem like they should be a natural progression or stepping stone to national politics but they end up becoming such lightning rods in our eternal culture war that IMO they just come with too much god damn baggage.

Gavin Newsom (and California) are automatically non-starters for half the country, much like Ron Desantis (and Flordia) are non-starters for the other half.

An interesting list if you're interested:

List of presidents of the United States by home state - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

By birth, California has only produced one president, Texas two, Florida 0.

The top is Virgina (sorta not fair, but hey) with Eight.

By primary political affiliation, California has produced three presidents and Texas three as well. Florida is still sitting at 0.

The top is New York (again, kinda not fair given its original colony status) with seven.

Yes, the political compromises/positions you have to make to become governor of a very blue or very red state are often drags in national campaigns because by definition, the electorate in your very blue/red state is out of sync with the national electorate and, most importantly, the electorate in swing states. I feel like this has happened largely in the last 20 years or so and so someone like GWB would face a hard time winning today because he would have to stake out much more extreme positions to become governor of Texas in the first place. (even though GWB governed in a very right wing way he ran for president in 2000 as a moderate)

Democrats would be much better off nominating someone like Whitmer instead of Newsom, if that's what it came down to.

 

[Paratus]

Yes, the political compromises/positions you have to make to become governor of a very blue or very red state are often drags in national campaigns because by definition, the electorate in your very blue/red state is out of sync with the national electorate and, most importantly, the electorate in swing states. I feel like this has happened largely in the last 20 years or so and so someone like GWB would face a hard time winning today because he would have to stake out much more extreme positions to become governor of Texas in the first place. (even though GWB governed in a very right wing way he ran for president in 2000 as a moderate)

Democrats would be much better off nominating someone like Whitmer instead of Newsom, if that's what it came down to.

I think the big push here is because Biden is old and the democratic electorate would like some newer younger candidates. As of now the only two democrats I can think of that have national name recognition, are under 65, and don''t have significant issues with their base are Newsom and Buttegieg, (not arguing they would have a better chance than Biden in 24).

You can wait for the next Obama but Obama was kinda of a one off. If politics really was a sport then the Dem team would need to be looking to hire some free agents and grabbing some first round draft picks.

(The GOP team on the other hand is made up of hooligans, formerly suspended players and rely on bribing the refs for wins - so the Patriots )

 

[fskimospy]

I think the big push here is because Biden is old and the democratic electorate would like some newer younger candidates. As of now the only two democrats I can think of that have national name recognition, are under 65, and don''t have significant issues with their base are Newsom and Buttegieg, (not arguing they would have a better chance than Biden in 24).

You can wait for the next Obama but Obama was kinda of a one off. If politics really was a sport then the Dem team would need to be looking to hire some free agents and grabbing some first round draft picks.

(The GOP team on the other hand is made up of hooligans, formerly suspended players and rely on bribing the refs for wins - so the Patriots )

Yeah I get the desire to replace Biden but unless he withdraws I highly doubt any of them are going to throw their hat in the ring. First and foremost I think it's because again, they would lose. They are both young and they know either way the field is going to be wide open in 2028 as if Biden does win a second term I think Harris will be viewed as very weak.

(yeah you know it's bad when you've somehow surpassed the Raiders as being the dirtiest franchise in football)