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Gallup polling shows significant improvement in U.S. Employment in October

Jan 25, 2011
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http://www.gallup.com/poll/150137/Unemployment-Down-Sharply-Early-October.aspx

Gallup is also showing a sharp improvement in underemployment as well as the part-time percentage. Politics aside I hope this plays out as accurate as its been a long time waiting for a turn around. Hopefully that time is now.


PRINCETON, NJ -- Unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, is 8.3% in mid-October -- down sharply from 8.7% at the end of September and 9.2% at the end of August. A year ago, Gallup's U.S. unemployment rate stood at 10.0%. While seasonal hiring patterns may explain some of this improvement, the drop suggests the government could report an October unemployment rate of less than 9.0%.
 

Moonbeam

Elite Member
Nov 24, 1999
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I predict that if the 99% thingi keeps up everybody will be polling as having three jobs and earning too much money.
 

xBiffx

Diamond Member
Aug 22, 2011
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Lets wait and see if this plays out for the next couple months before jumping the gun.
 

YoungGun21

Platinum Member
Aug 17, 2006
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That's it! Everyone knows that with 13 months to election time, if a Gallup poll indicates that there has been a decrease in unemployment then that President is guaranteed reelection. Repubs lose in 2012 for sure. It's settled.

/mybestprojo
 

Bitek

Diamond Member
Aug 2, 2001
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I really hope that is true. We need all the help we can get.
 

glenn1

Lifer
Sep 6, 2000
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Gallup polling shows significant improvement in U.S. Employment in October.[/QUOTE] Must be due to the Obama's job bill he's been asking Congress to pass for the last few months, combined with all the "shovel-ready" projects in the last stimulus bill. :whiste: But sarcasm aside, this is good news although this poll doesn't seem to fit with the 'official' figures from BLS - let's hope that Gallup has this correct and it's not just a one-month blip.
 
Oct 30, 2004
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We may enjoy some small ups mixed in with the downs here and there, but the overall trend is going to be downward because of our exposure to Global Labor Arbitrage. The trend will be downward until the standard of living and purchasing power for the average American is similar to that of places like China, India, and Mexico--similar to that of the third world.
 

RbSX

Diamond Member
Jan 18, 2002
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Bull.. fucking.. shit.

A gallup poll? ADP can't even get it right.
 

woolfe9999

Diamond Member
Mar 28, 2005
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With 30,000 households polled, the margin of error is essentially zero.

Even if the Gallup measure is flawed compared to BLS, the point isn't whether it measures actual unemployment accurately but rather the downward vector over time. Even a flawed measure can be useful for showing a trend line.

There is a nice comparison chart at the bottom of the link that explains the method in comparison to the BLS method. One difference is that BLS samples age 16+ whereas Gallup samples 18+. So if unemployment is higher among 16 and 17 year olds than the general population, that right there probably explains the difference.

The Gallup method seems to yield a wider range over time. Unemployment got up to 10.9% by that measure.

- wolf
 
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mshan

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2004
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Santelli on CNBC just said housing starts are up 15% today (I think mainly multifamily intended to be rentals). Home builder sentiment was also higher than expected yesterday.

And about 4% of unemployment rate is construction workers, so it could be good sign that unemployment rate may actually be going down.

Imagine what could happen if government actually allowed real infrastructure projects to proceed in this country (unemployment rate and economy in general).
 
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Macamus Prime

Diamond Member
Feb 24, 2011
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The GOP is making every attempt to mess with the numbers - so they started firing all their staff.

However, since they only hire illegal aliens to work for them, it won't mean anything, given that their slaves, I mean,... workers, are off the books to begin with.
 

Ausm

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
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If unemployment numbers drop the GOP is sunk in 2012 and I am sure that the GOP in Congress will be applying the full court press of obstructionism right up to the next election cycle..hopefully their asshole maneuvers come back to bite them in the ass.
 

Jhhnn

No Lifer
Nov 11, 1999
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If unemployment numbers drop the GOP is sunk in 2012 and I am sure that the GOP in Congress will be applying the full court press of obstructionism right up to the next election cycle..hopefully their asshole maneuvers come back to bite them in the ass.
Well, yeh, of course. There's no price too great to pay to Beat Obama!
 

shira

Diamond Member
Jan 12, 2005
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Unemployment stable or going up? Obama is responsible; Obama is a disaster.

Unemployment going down? We can't believe the numbers; any improvement is because the business sector believes Obama won't be re-elected and a GOP president will be pro-business; Obama is a disaster.

I think that about sums up right-wing "reasoning."
 

xBiffx

Diamond Member
Aug 22, 2011
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Unemployment stable or going up? Obama is responsible; Obama is a disaster.

Unemployment going down? We can't believe the numbers; any improvement is because the business sector believes Obama won't be re-elected and a GOP president will be pro-business; Obama is a disaster.

I think that about sums up right-wing "reasoning."
You are so wrong. People just don't want to start making knee jerk reactions to a snapshot of the economy. If this happens again next month and the month after that then we can start talking about why.


You were right about one thing though.
Obama is a disaster.
 

Jhhnn

No Lifer
Nov 11, 1999
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You are so wrong. People just don't want to start making knee jerk reactions to a snapshot of the economy. If this happens again next month and the month after that then we can start talking about why.


You were right about one thing though.

Righties didn't have a problem condemning Obama when he took over during an economic tailspin, and haven't let up since. Your post proves that entirely.

It's not like he inherited a budget surplus so he could play hero with tax cuts, or that he inherited a nation at peace so he could play hero going to war, either.
 

xBiffx

Diamond Member
Aug 22, 2011
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Righties didn't have a problem condemning Obama when he took over during an economic tailspin, and haven't let up since. Your post proves that entirely.

It's not like he inherited a budget surplus so he could play hero with tax cuts, or that he inherited a nation at peace so he could play hero going to war, either.
No one denies he inherited a bad situation. What you lefties fail to realize is that he made it worse, not better. That is what the right condemns him on, not the fact that we are in a bad situation to start with.
 

RbSX

Diamond Member
Jan 18, 2002
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Santelli on CNBC just said housing starts are up 15% today (I think mainly multifamily intended to be rentals). Home builder sentiment was also higher than expected yesterday.

And about 4% of unemployment rate is construction workers, so it could be good sign that unemployment rate may actually be going down.

Imagine what could happen if government actually allowed real infrastructure projects to proceed in this country (unemployment rate and economy in general).
Might have something to do with the insane stimulus for construction projects... just saying.

Plus, LULZ for anyone that gets business news from CNBC.
 

Jhhnn

No Lifer
Nov 11, 1999
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No one denies he inherited a bad situation. What you lefties fail to realize is that he made it worse, not better. That is what the right condemns him on, not the fact that we are in a bad situation to start with.
Made it worse how, exactly?
 

Jhhnn

No Lifer
Nov 11, 1999
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How about spent shitloads of money that was supposed to reduce unemployment. Instead, unemployment went up, and we are stuck with the debt.
What you're trying to say is that the money spent slowed the descent & helped stop it, right?

That the stimulus wasn't big enough because the true depths of disaster created in the collapse of the Bush Admin's Ownership Society flimflam had been underestimated?

How the hell does bolstering state budgets & contracting work make unemployment worse, anyway?
 

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