Gunslinger08
Lifer
Breaking from Drudge. Interesting, considering just about everyone said Obama won the debate last night.
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Gallup Likely Voters Poll: Obama 49 - McCain 47
- Thread starter Gunslinger08
- Start date
Lame, totally lame...
Obama 52 / Mclame 45 sounds about right (52% - 55% was what economic models projected this summer, when economy was apparenly in much better shape).
Obama could be as high as 55% in his more favorable battleground states, McLame, on election day, perhaps 48% in battleground states that historically should be Republican home turf (go to FiveThirtyEight.com and start scanning through where averages have been stuck for quite some time in various "battleground" states)
McLame never seemed to break through that aggregate of aggregates 45% ceiling he has always been battling, so why would that change now?
Obama 52 / Mclame 45 sounds about right (52% - 55% was what economic models projected this summer, when economy was apparenly in much better shape).
Obama could be as high as 55% in his more favorable battleground states, McLame, on election day, perhaps 48% in battleground states that historically should be Republican home turf (go to FiveThirtyEight.com and start scanning through where averages have been stuck for quite some time in various "battleground" states)
McLame never seemed to break through that aggregate of aggregates 45% ceiling he has always been battling, so why would that change now?
Vic
Elite Member
Likely voter polls favor McCain because a traditional prerequisite of being a "likely" voter is that you voted in the last election. (edit: note that the same "expanded" LV poll is 51-45, +6 Obama).
All this does is underline the need for Obama to GOTV on election day. Every vote not cast is a vote for McCain.
All this does is underline the need for Obama to GOTV on election day. Every vote not cast is a vote for McCain.
AstroManLuca
Lifer
When one poll shows a narrowing of Obama's lead, it is automatically promoted to "BREAKING NEWS!" status on Drudge. Never mentioning, of course, that there were five other polls that came out today.
techs
Lifer
Conveniently forgot to mention that Gallup analyzes its polls two ways, Traditional and
Expanded. In the Expanded poll results, same time frame its Obama 49 and MCain 43 which is in line with most other polls.
What is the Expanded poll, according to Gallup:
The "expanded" model determines likely voters based only on current voting intentions. This estimate would take into account higher turnout among groups of voters traditionally less likely to vote, such as young adults and minorities. That model has generally produced results that closely match the registered voter figures
Expanded. In the Expanded poll results, same time frame its Obama 49 and MCain 43 which is in line with most other polls.
What is the Expanded poll, according to Gallup:
The "expanded" model determines likely voters based only on current voting intentions. This estimate would take into account higher turnout among groups of voters traditionally less likely to vote, such as young adults and minorities. That model has generally produced results that closely match the registered voter figures
If the college kids and a bit older don't vote, you can kiss Obama goodbye. They have a sorry record too. Let's hope the hard push to the end by Obama keeps the youngsters motivated to actually VOTE this time. This election is going to be close, IMHO. Plus, there will be states with voter fraud challenges that could tie up the results in court for weeks.
Just hold on tight and VOTE.
-Robert
Just hold on tight and VOTE.
-Robert
Stoneburner
Diamond Member
On point. What an utterly misleading thread. The traditional voter model meaning the 2004 turnout model. I would honestly stick with Gallups registered voter count, and treat both likely voter scenarios as an amusement.
Stoneburner
Diamond Member
Some pollsters switch to likely voter models towards the end.
Drudge needs to learn how to read, or at least, to count.
The Kansas City Star reports that, as of today, it's up to 52 - 41 in favor of Obama.
Someone's reality check just went latex. 😎
rockyct
Diamond Member
Right, and now they are saying that Rasmussen's poll showing a 4 point Obama lead as the only poll to trust.
There's always going to be some noise in the numbers, especially when they keep tweaking what makes someone a "likely voter." Obama does look like he's lost about 2 points since his peak, but he's still waaaaay up in the electoral college. Cherry picking polls is stupid, and both sides are guilty of it.
It's a quick and easy number that gives you a decent idea of the state of the race. If a candidate is up by 4 or 5 points nationally it's usually a safe bet that he's winning the electoral race too. Sure you can go state by state for a more accurate result (unless you're Dave), but that one number works pretty well.
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