Originally posted by poursoul
this has to be the worst launch of a video card (hell any computer hardware!) in the history of man.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
As much as I hate to say it, I'll probably have to agree with you poursoul. But now that I've looked back at the past, it's not that surprising. I've compiled a chronological listing of key news posts dating back to last August that mention the NV30 -
http://www.nvnews.net/cgi-bin/searc...gi?keyword=nv30
Unfortunately, we lost four months of news prior to August. In that news, I recall NVIDIA's CEO mentioning that the NV30 might be out as early as August of 2002.
UPDATE - May 1, 2002 -
http://news.com.com/2100-1040-896850.html
This is subject to interpretation since the statement was made by the author of the article and not NVIDIA. More precisely, the phrase "from a new graphics chip slated to arrive in August" could have meant the AGP 8X version of the GeForce4.
"Also on Monday, Nvidia raised its financial outlook for the just-ended quarter, and Huang said he sees continued market share gains this year leading to more growth. Some of that will come from a new graphics chip slated to arrive in August."
END OF UPDATE
START OF NEWS POSTS
8/23/2002 - Credit Suisse First Boston analyst Tim Mahon, in a research note on Thursday afternoon, said that NVIDIA has come under criticism from analysts for declining to specify when its next-generation graphics chip, known as NV30, will ship, other than to say there will be some availability this holiday season.
8/28/2002 - Interview with Huang at SFGate.com - "We believe we have overcome the challenge. We believe we're ready to go into production. We're very confident that NV30 (Nvidia's next-generation chip) will be available for you this Christmas season."
9/7/2002 - Hiroshige?s Weekly International News -
http://home.attbi.com/~bobcraig4/ka...translation.htm (Thanks to Bob Craig for the translation).
This is exactly what Nvidia?s [current] case amounts to. In other words, if the NV30 is to appear during this year, it will be conditional that the first samples are good, and that ?risk production? is performed. Because of this, if there is to be a critical bug found in the first silicon of the NV30, Nvidia?s schedule would not only be delayed, but they would take on economic damages also.
9/16/2002 - NVIDIA Needs NV30 - According to business analysts at Zacks Investment Research, NVIDIA is on their exclusive list of Stocks to Sell Now.
When that happens (the NV30 debuts), and when the technology sector in general gets back on its feet, NVDA should put together some better performances that more adequately reflect its potential. Until that time, investors may want to hold off on beginning or deepening a position in NVDA.
9/23/2002 - AnandTech visits NVIDIA - The engineers were hard at work on NV30; because of the delays there has been a lot more testing and validation work on the part that should help NVIDIA considerably once all of the manufacturing issues settle. We caught a glimpse of NV30 running off of the IKOS box.
10/24/2002 - CNET - Nvidia chips to make tardy debut - Graphics chip leader Nvidia is expected to unveil the fastest PC graphics processor yet at the Comdex trade show next month, but analysts say the new chip may be too little, too late.
Nvidia was expected to have its NV30 processor, to be sold as the GeForce 5, on the market by now. But problems stemming from shifting to a new chipmaking process have bumped back the chip by several months. Analysts now expect Nvidia to have a handful of new chips on the market by Christmas, but volume shipments won?t begin until early next year.
"Basically, they missed the cycle," Hans Mosesmann, a Prudential Securities analyst, said of Nvidia. "Really (the NV30) is a fall product that's now been pushed out for all intents and purposes to the spring."
The NV30 "is a great product," Mosesmann said. "It's going to be better, but not good enough...It's going to have to be twice as fast as the 9700 for people to look at it and think about switching." (Bear in mind that Mosesman is a Prudential Securities analyst. His knowledge concerning the performance of high-end graphics cards may be limited )
11/5/2002 - AnandTech - "NVIDIA was over today showing Matthew and I something very impressive that you'll be able to read about in the coming week(s)."
11/7/2002 - Last fall's earnings conference call NVIDIA's CEO stated - "we expect to begin production shipments (of NV30) in our January quarter." (Note that January quarter does not imply January, 2003).
We also learned that NVIDIA had been developing NV30 test chips since February 2002.
11/15/2002 - The Inquirer - NV30 "30% faster" than Radeon 9700 Pro.
11/18/2002 - NVIDIA took a beating on Wall Street today as shares dropped by almost 22%. My (MikeC) take on the situation is that when Prudential analyst Hans Mosesmann cut his rating on NVIDIA to sell, investors paniced.
11/18/2002 - NV30 debuts at COMDEX. DigiTimes reports that mass production of the NV30 chip is expected to begin by year-end and volume shipments in the first quarter of 2003.
11/19/2002 - Merril Lynch - "We believe the highly anticipated (graphics processing unit) is worthy of the attention as it delivers 2.5 (times) to 3 (times) the performance of the company's previous top-of-the-line processor, GeForce4 Ti 4600, according to industry benchmarks," Merrill Lynch analyst Joe Osha said in a research note Tuesday.
"With the NV30 finally here, we believe there is one less risk to owning the stock," Osha said.
11/20/2002 - Merril Lynch - "We spent some time with NVIDIA?s senior management at Comdex yesterday, and came away convinced that although short-term challenges remain, NVIDIA is on the right track to resume growth. With the worst now behind it, we believe NVIDIA?s valuation is too compelling to ignore, and we are reiterating our buy recommendation and $20 price target.
It will be very important for NVIDIA to successfully ramp the lower-cost versions of NV3X in time to hit the April 2003 quarter.
12/6/2002 - DigiTimes reports that TSMC's 0.13-micron processes at Fab 6 has reportedly reached a yield rate of 70% and that NVIDIA's GeForce FX (NV30) is in "small-volume test production."
2/3/2003 - Huang (NVIDIA's CEO) is confident that Nvidia will end up back on top. "Tiger Woods doesn't win every day. We don't deny that ATI has a wonderful product and it took the performance lead from us. But if they think they're going to hold onto it, they're smoking something hallucinogenic."
(Note that indirectly, Huang is admitting that NVIDIA has lost this round to ATI).
END OF NEWS POSTS
GEFORCE FX REVIEWS
AnandTech -
http://www.anandtech.com/video/showdoc.html?i=1779&p=1
"So there you have it, NVIDIA's response to ATI's Radeon 9700 Pro - but does anyone else feel unfulfilled by the GeForce FX? A card that is several months late, that is able to outperform the Radeon 9700 Pro by 10% at best but in most cases manages to fall behind by a factor much greater than that. Granted the problems that plagued the launch of the FX weren't all up to NVIDIA's control, after all the decision to go 0.13-micron was made 1 - 2 years ago based on data that was available at the time. ATI took a gamble on producing a 0.15-micron part and NVIDIA did the same on their 0.13-micron NV30, and it looks like ATI guessed right."
ExtremeTech -
http://www.extremetech.com/article2...3,846356,00.asp
"GeForceFX certainly puts nVidia back into contention with ATI, but Radeon 9700 Pro looks strong versus GeForceFX, and these results show just how much performance ground nVidia had lost to ATI when Radeon 9700 Pro first shipped. But ATI's solid outing here versus GeForceFX should give nVidia pause, since it appears likely that GeForceFX in fact will not return the performance lead to nVidia."
HardOCP -
http://www.hardocp.com/article.html?art=NDIx
"The Bottom Line: The GeForceFX 5800 Ultra is a very hot and noisy beast that may give you a bit of an edge over the current king of the hill, the ATI 9700 Pro in some applications. If you are an NVIDIA fanboy, this of course has your name all over it. At the current US$400.00 price point, the GFFX simply does not seem worth it to us. If NVIDIA can work some driver magic and pull an extra 20% increase in frame rate out of the bag like we have seen in the past, they had best start pulling. Either that or pull out the NV35 chipset, and quick."
Tom's Hardware -
http://www6.tomshardware.com/graphi...0127/index.html
(Tom's review was authored by a reviewer that runs an NVIDIA based fan site).
"NVIDIA takes the crown! No question about it - the GeForceFX 5800 Ultra is faster than the competition from ATI's Radeon 9700 PRO in the majority of the benchmarks. However, its lead is only slight, especially compared to the distance that ATI put between its Radeon 9700 PRO and the Ti 4600. Still, when compared to its predecessor, the GeForce4 Ti, the FX represents a giant step forward."
END OF REVIEWS
There are two upcoming events that we should pay attention to. The first one will be the debut of 3DMark03 next week followed by NVIDIA's conference call with investors.
What will happen if major investors begin to lose confidence in NVIDIA?
Their investors may be willing to "look the other way" for the time being since the move to .13-micron was risky. At this point, I believe the NV35 could make or break NVIDIA's graphics business sector.