Future of video cards bleak?

[Pugnate]

http://www.dailytech.com/article.aspx?newsid=7052

If this performance is consistent with the final product, Nvidia have little motivation to better their products. And with ATi now bought by AMD I worry a little about their video card future, especially since the R600 was delayed since December without any obvious reason.

I am just wondering what sort of goals AMD have for ATi if they delayed the release of the R600 by six months? Will this be the last high end video card ATi work on?

AMD are now fighting battles on two highly competitive fronts. I am wondering if they are going to divert most resources towards processors only, or will continue to concentrate on high end video cards as well.

Their extremely nonchalant attitude towards the R600 makes think they don't really care to be competitive with high end video cards. And if this is true, it is very bad news for us. Nvidia will release what they want, and charge what they want.

Again this is all speculation, but at least to me the signs don't look good. I hope I am wrong.

 

[Matt2]

I dont think AMD cares about R600 at all.

They bought ATI for the Fusion project and R600 was just something they got stuck with.

 

[defiantsf]

We need Voodoo to make a come back! Long live 3DFX!!!

 

[Matt2]

Originally posted by: defiantsf
We need Voodoo to make a come back! Long live 3DFX!!!

3DFX lives on through nvidia.

 

[Pugnate]

Dude you are such a Nvidia fanboy. hehe

 

[Gstanfor]

Originally posted by: Matt2

Originally posted by: defiantsf
We need Voodoo to make a come back! Long live 3DFX!!!

3DFX lives on through nvidia.

Indeed.

Emmett Kilgariff (Rampage designer at 3dfx) was the lead designer for nv40. Something for those fanatics who were former 3dfx zealots to ponder...

 

[Matt2]

Originally posted by: Gstanfor

Originally posted by: Matt2

Originally posted by: defiantsf
We need Voodoo to make a come back! Long live 3DFX!!!

3DFX lives on through nvidia.

Indeed.

Emmett Kilgariff (Rampage designer at 3dfx) was the lead designer for nv40. Something for those fanatics who were former 3dfx zealots to ponder...

hehe, I wonder who convinced him 32bit color was necessary, let alone SM3

 

[5150Joker]

I think the OP has a good point, with AMD fighting on two fronts, they are not going to divert resources away from their core processor business to compete against a business partner (nVidia). Instead they will start creating cheap CGPU platforms to sell to OEMs in an effort to thwart Intel. It wouldn't surprise me in the least if they yielded the high end discrete market to nVidia completely after R600.

 

[Matt2]

Originally posted by: 5150Joker
I think the OP has a good point, with AMD fighting on two fronts, they are not going to divert resources away from their core processor business to compete against a business partner (nVidia). Instead they will start creating cheap CGPU platforms to sell to OEMs in an effort to thwart Intel. It wouldn't surprise me in the least if they yielded the high end discrete market to nVidia completely after R600.

I dont think they'll yield, but it's possible that they wont put the necessary resources to the task and end up the perrenial "1st loser" AKA second place.

I think a lot hinges on whether Barcelona lives up to Hector's hype. So far R600 hasn't and if Barcelona flops too, I dont see how AMD can fight a losing battle on both fronts.

 

[Gstanfor]

hehe, I wonder who convinced him 32bit color was necessary, let alone SM3

He had his revenge for implementing the extra features with the texture filtering system (which was most un-nvidia like as architectures before nv4x / g7x and afterward clearly show. I guess 3dfx's legacy had to live on somehow).

 

[Ulfhednar]

Originally posted by: Gstanfor

hehe, I wonder who convinced him 32bit color was necessary, let alone SM3

He had his revenge for implementing the extra features with the texture filtering system (which was most un-nvidia like as architectures before nv4x / g7x and afterward clearly show. I guess 3dfx's legacy had to live on somehow).

Was he also responsible for the IQ issues like shimmering?

 

[Gstanfor]

Read what you just quoted and you'll find your answer.

 

[nitromullet]

I don't totally get this two fronts thing... My take is that the real battle between AMD, NVIDIA, and Intel ultimately is the platform battle, and well AMD has a better gpu than Intel and a way better cpu than NVIDIA... The short term high end video card situation doesn't look great for them, but give them time to get over the acquisition.

As far as the future of discrete video goes... If NV gets too lax or starts charging too much for lackluster products, either they will kill PC gaming (and one of its customer bases) or you will all of a sudden see another competitor that wants to cash in on that cash cow. So, no matter what NV has to continue to develop.

 

[ScrewFace]

I think ATI has a whopper of a videocard with the R600. After all, ATI made alot of money when they were a lone Canadian company since the Radeon 8500 days and AMD, I'm sure, is run by intelligent business-oriented people who want to make their ATI division even better.

 

[Roguestar]

Originally posted by: nitromullet
AMD has a better gpu than Intel and a way better cpu than NVIDIA...

 

[sindows]

Well, I certainly don't like the way things are heading now. If the 8600 series are an indication of whats to come, its not looking good at all. For the past 2 generations, a new "midrange" card has always outperformed the older high end part and now it no longer does...

5900Ultra->6600GT beats it or ties with it
6800 Ultra->7600GT beats it or ties with it
7900GTX->8600GTS loses to it more than it beats it

Or for those people who compare cards at MSRP prices...the new mid range offered at least twice the performance of the older midrange at the same price point. Does the 8600GTS offer twice the performance of the 7600gt? I don't think so...

 

[Bateluer]

Originally posted by: Roguestar

Originally posted by: nitromullet
AMD has a better gpu than Intel and a way better cpu than NVIDIA...

Intel's GPU hasn't gotten off the ground and Nvidia's CPU is still on the drawing board. Both companies have hinted they will be developing them, however. Which is probably a good thing for competition.

 

[Gstanfor]

Originally posted by: sindows
Well, I certainly don't like the way things are heading now. If the 8600 series are an indication of whats to come, its not looking good at all. For the past 2 generations, a new "midrange" card has always outperformed the older high end part and now it no longer does...

5900Ultra->6600GT beats it or ties with it
6800 Ultra->7600GT beats it or ties with it
7900GTX->8600GTS loses to it more than it beats it

Or for those people who compare cards at MSRP prices...the new mid range offered at least twice the performance of the older midrange at the same price point. Does the 8600GTS offer twice the performance of the 7600gt? I don't think so...

If you read the other threads pertaining to G86/g84, you'll note that nvidia didn't have the transistor budget at 80nm while staying within mid-range GPU die sizes to double performance. I expect this will be corrected when nvidia moves to 55nm (no, thats not a error either).

 

[yacoub]

Remember that they (NVidia/ATi) CHOSE what sort of hardware specs they cards they released would have. NVidia has no one to blame except themselves for how poorly the 8600 series perform. Same with ATi if the R600 doesn't do well. NVidia COULD have chosen to take a slightly lower profit margin on the 8600GTS but give it the hardware it needed to better compete (64 stream processors, 256-bit bus, etc) but they didn't.

But wait six months and a new line of (refresh) cards will be out...

 

[betasub]

Originally posted by: sindows
Or for those people who compare cards at MSRP prices...the new mid range offered at least twice the performance of the older midrange at the same price point. Does the 8600GTS offer twice the performance of the 7600gt? I don't think so...

Does the 7600GT offer twice the performance of the 6600GT?

The 6600GT gave twice the performance of its (underperforming) predecessor, and was correctly lauded as an unusually good card for the mid-range. I think you're expecting too much from NVidia's new mid-range: they're not ethusiast cards, but their street price will eventually fall to a low enough level to sell them by the truck load to casual gamers and OEMs (regardless of its current use, Dx10 is still a selling point to these buyers).

 

[Vogel515]

So many doomsayers....

First off AMD main competition with CPU's is intel, and AMD's main competition with GPU's is Nvidia, no use comparing Nvidia's cpu to amd's or intel's gpu to amd's.

Secondly, there is no benefit for a company to sit on its heels, specially in the hightech industry where all it takes is a new efficiency to be found to turn a market on its tail.

This may all turn out to be a great thing. Here's a few scenarios.

AMD / ATI suck up the loses, do some serious cost cutting and split up.

AMD / ATI suck up the loses, and become more focuses in CPUs or GPUS

AMD / ATI get bought by a private equity firm, the PE firm then cuts the fat, breaks the company back up, and spins the components back out separately.

stretch: AMD / ATI 's latest line of chips/cards fails miserably compared to intel and nvidia. Intel and Nvidia are going to make some huge profits, they will have more money / less pressure to commit to R&D to respond to AMD/ATI's next move. This would make for the ideal time for each of them to step into new markets. Intel is talking about a GPU and Nvidia is talking about a CPU.

 

[bobsmith1492]

At some point, if the video card market slows, maybe the mean video card power level will approach the top level more closely. With a slowdown of power increase and more people having better cards, maybe game companies will come up with better games? With a little more time and effort, I'm sure the 8800GTX is more than enough to power increased levels of graphics complexity. Really, you don't need 24xAA and all that - that power can be put to better use by making characters more realistic and games more enjoyable. Also, multicore CPUs can be put to better use by making more realistic physical effects.

Basically if the video card market were to stagnate today, there's a lot that could still happen with computer games.

 

[Pugnate]

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