Future of programmers uncertain in US

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Technology - USATODAY.com


Endangered species: US programmers

Thu Oct 14, 7:32 AM ET

By David R. Francis, The Christian Science Monitor

Say goodbye to the American software programmer. Once the symbols of hope as the nation shifted from manufacturing to service jobs, programmers today are an endangered species. They face a challenge similar to that which shrank the ranks of steelworkers and autoworkers a quarter century ago: competition from foreigners.

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Some experts think they'll become extinct within the next few years, forced into unemployment or new careers by a combination of offshoring of their work to India and other low-wage countries and the arrival of skilled immigrants taking their jobs.


Not everybody agrees programmers will disappear completely. But even the optimists believe that many basic programming jobs will go to foreign nations, leaving behind jobs for Americans to lead and manage software projects. The evidence is already mounting that many computer jobs are endangered, prompting concern about the future of the nation's high-tech industries.


Since the dotcom bust in 2000-2001, nearly a quarter of California technology workers have taken nontech jobs, according to a study of 1 million workers released last week by Sphere Institute, a San Francisco Bay Area public policy group. The jobs they took often paid less. Software workers were hit especially hard. Another 28% have dropped off California's job rolls altogether. They fled the state, became unemployed, or decided on self-employment.


The problem is not limited to California.


Although computer-related jobs in the United States increased by 27,000 between 2001 and 2003, about 180,000 new foreign H-1B workers in the computer area entered the nation, calculates John Miano, an expert with the Programmers Guild, a professional society. "This suggests any gain of jobs have been taken by H-1B workers," he says.


H-1B visas allow skilled foreigners to live and work in the US for up to six years. Many are able to get green cards in a first step to citizenship. Another visa, L-1, allows multinational companies to transfer workers from foreign operations into the US.

 

[Infohawk]

Honestly, are there any professional jobs that are safe in the US? Maybe lawyers are a bit insulated since you have to study here for a bit and pass a test here... but who knows when the Repugs will change that. Doctors are already usually foreigners. Low-wage jobs are done by Mexicans and other immigrants. There will be no stop until we are as poor as 3rd worlders.

 

[Train]

I think programming as a proffession needed to grow up, even before the job losses.

Many programmers during the tech boom were, simply put, not very good programmers. They were programmers because the pay was good and the demand was high, many programmers did not even have a technical degree, often having graduated from a business school. That is if they were college educated at all.

Compare programming to the other scientific disciplines, programmers look pretty bad. Compare the difference between what good programming should be, and the actual industry average, there will be a gap far greater than in say automotive engineering, chemistry, or biology, for example.

 

[Train]

Originally posted by: Infohawk
Honestly, are there any professional jobs that are safe in the US? Maybe lawyers are a bit insulated since you have to study here for a bit and pass a test here... but who knows when the Repugs will change that. Doctors are already usually foreigners. Low-wage jobs are done by Mexicans and other immigrants. There will be no stop until we are as poor as 3rd worlders.

It's the "repugs" fault we have more foriegn doctors? explain that one.

 

[imported_Condor]

Originally posted by: Train

Originally posted by: Infohawk
Honestly, are there any professional jobs that are safe in the US? Maybe lawyers are a bit insulated since you have to study here for a bit and pass a test here... but who knows when the Repugs will change that. Doctors are already usually foreigners. Low-wage jobs are done by Mexicans and other immigrants. There will be no stop until we are as poor as 3rd worlders.

It's the "repugs" fault we have more foriegn doctors? explain that one.

Before this becomes another Bush bashing, liberal whining session, a historic note. I was in the American Consulate in Quebec, Canada in 1993 and a Consular Officer tried to refuse an H1-B visa that a Packistani citizen was applying for. He found that under regulations in place then, he had to issue the visa. That was even before Clinton. It really pissxs me off when I can't blame things on Clinton!

Programs have been getting more modular for years and hardware has likewise been getting more tolerant. Code is about the most portable commodity in history. We did have the advantage and had we seized on training admissions like the Medical fields did, we could have streatched our period of glory a few years, but it was a bubble and we knew that. Training was increasing and macro code was getting more avaliable. The more code you write, the less new code you need to write. Hardware drivers are going to continue to be a good market for a while and the best isn't over yet for a number of years, but if you only write code, you could think about expanding your toolkit.


Well, I did at any rate.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

I work at adefense contractor and I can see this EVERY DAY! it's totally horse poop.

And Microsoft is outsourcing to India.

The end is near for hte US. We produce nothing, NOTHING anymore. And Bush will continue his policy of "staying the course" and ignorance over the next 4 years. I wish he'd start reading hte newspaper.

A country simply can not survive if we rely on manfactured goods from other countries. Warren Buffet said this years ago and has stated he is no longer investing in the US. That is scary as hell if you ask me.

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: IHateMyJob2004
I work at adefense contractor and I can see this EVERY DAY! it's totally horse poop.

And Microsoft is outsourcing to India.

The end is near for hte US. We produce nothing, NOTHING anymore. And Bush will continue his policy of "staying the course" and ignorance over the next 4 years. I wish he'd start reading hte newspaper.

A country simply can not survive if we rely on manfactured goods from other countries. Warren Buffet said this years ago and has stated he is no longer investing in the US. That is scary as hell if you ask me.

That's the Neocon plan.

A huge Island Country that produces nothing so you only have a select few Rich living it up with a huge Playground with the rest slaving to them.

Plan working perfectly for the Neocons, just see them in here how Happy they are.

 

[Train]

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: IHateMyJob2004
I work at adefense contractor and I can see this EVERY DAY! it's totally horse poop.

And Microsoft is outsourcing to India.

The end is near for hte US. We produce nothing, NOTHING anymore. And Bush will continue his policy of "staying the course" and ignorance over the next 4 years. I wish he'd start reading hte newspaper.

A country simply can not survive if we rely on manfactured goods from other countries. Warren Buffet said this years ago and has stated he is no longer investing in the US. That is scary as hell if you ask me.

That's the Neocon plan.

A huge Island Country that produces nothing so you only have a select few Rich living it up with a huge Playground with the rest slaving to them.

Plan working perfectly for the Neocons, just see them in here how Happy they are.

Who's the elitists? the rich who are just trying to stay in business, or the workers who are so damn good theyd rather lose thier job and have it sent overseas than to work for less?

I'd rather buy foriegn made products owned by amercian businessman than foriegn products owned by foreign busnessmen.

 

[lozina]

Originally posted by: Train


Who's the elitists? the rich who are just trying to stay in business, or the workers who are so damn good theyd rather lose thier job and have it sent overseas than to work for less?

I'd rather buy foriegn made products owned by amercian businessman than foriegn products owned by foreign busnessmen.

You call that being 'elitist'? Do you not understand the concept of a standard of living? How can Bush supporters claim the economy is booming and then at the same time call average workers 'elitist' because they don't want to decrease their standard of living?

 

[Train]

Originally posted by: lozina

Originally posted by: Train


Who's the elitists? the rich who are just trying to stay in business, or the workers who are so damn good theyd rather lose thier job and have it sent overseas than to work for less?

I'd rather buy foriegn made products owned by amercian businessman than foriegn products owned by foreign busnessmen.

You call that being 'elitist'? Do you not understand the concept of a standard of living? How can Bush supporters claim the economy is booming and then at the same time call average workers 'elitist' because they don't want to decrease their standard of living?

how do you expect that fantasy to keep from crumbling when we have foriegn companies taking over our own markets because they can do everything cheaper? Its a myth liberals pushed on us and it collapsed, we can have all this cheap imported stuff and live like kings, but we also have high paying jobs, but oh crap, no ones buying our stuff.

For the ten millionth time, YOU CANT HAVE HIGH PAYING JOBS AND CHEAP GOODS, and every attempt the US has made to put tarrifs or regulations on imports has been slapped down by the IO's We have to compete on the world market and stop living in dream land.

 

[lozina]

Originally posted by: Train

Originally posted by: lozina

Originally posted by: Train


Who's the elitists? the rich who are just trying to stay in business, or the workers who are so damn good theyd rather lose thier job and have it sent overseas than to work for less?

I'd rather buy foriegn made products owned by amercian businessman than foriegn products owned by foreign busnessmen.

You call that being 'elitist'? Do you not understand the concept of a standard of living? How can Bush supporters claim the economy is booming and then at the same time call average workers 'elitist' because they don't want to decrease their standard of living?

how do you expect that fantasy to keep from crumbling when we have foriegn companies taking over our own markets because they can do everything cheaper? Its a myth liberals pushed on us and it collapsed, we can have all this cheap imported stuff and live like kings, but we also have high paying jobs, but oh crap, no ones buying our stuff.

For the ten millionth time, YOU CANT HAVE HIGH PAYING JOBS AND CHEAP GOODS, and every attempt the US has made to put tarrifs or regulations on imports has been slapped down by the IO's We have to compete on the world market and stop living in dream land.

What cheap goods? If our goods are getting cheaper, then that means our CPI would be on a downward trend. Dare to test that hypothesis?

 

[ajf3]

I agree - this isn't anything that one party or another can control. It's just the way that the market is... now that broadband pipe and telecommunications are cheap, it's a whole new world.

I saw a chart from the dept of labor a while back - estimating job losses in certain fields due to outsourcing over the next 20 years - it's staggering.

We're seeing it mostly in tech/support right now, but it's going to hit most of the white collar jobs out there - accounting, finance, marketing, legal (research), radiology, research. Hell, anything you can do entirely or mostly on a computer can be oursourced.

Over the next couple of years it's really going to hit the financial sector - recently saw an article about India(?) ramping up education to the point where they'll be graduating 50,000 CPA's a year.

They're even talking about it potentially being cheaper to fly someone overseas for a medical procedure and then fly them back when it's done.

I truely believe that this is the start of the demise of not only the US, but pretty much all 1st world nations. If you make companies pay the higher costs to hire domestically, then they can't compete with their international peers - this would lead many to simply relocate.

Don't know what the answer is, but you can't support a nation on the service industry and good ideas...

 

[Engineer]

I can attest to the

anything you can do entirely or mostly on a computer can be oursourced.

Our Acounts Payable department and expense check department was just sent to Mexico. Our billing address is now a post office drawer in Texas. Receipts are now scanned and e-mailed to Mexico for expense reports.

I'd rather buy foriegn made products owned by amercian businessman than foriegn products owned by foreign busnessmen.

I would rather us all buy American made products....but there are few of them now....

 

[tallest1]

So first manufacturing jobs leave the country then computer technology jobs get threatened...... out of curiousity, whats going to replace it?

 

[ajf3]

Exactly - nothing is... and the impact to 1st world workers is just the start.

Wait until we no longer have disposable funds, or possibly any funds at all for consumer spending. Then the large corps and govts will start collapsing. No more funds for foreign aid, disaster relief, basic services.

We're all going to normalize downwards to somewhere between 2nd and 3rd world nations.

...and it's not just computer technology jobs. As I said in my post above - it's basically all white collar jobs that don't require a physical presence.

 

[CanOWorms]

Since the dotcom bust in 2000-2001, nearly a quarter of California technology workers have taken nontech jobs, according to a study of 1 million workers released last week by Sphere Institute, a San Francisco Bay Area public policy group. The jobs they took often paid less. Software workers were hit especially hard. Another 28% have dropped off California's job rolls altogether. They fled the state, became unemployed, or decided on self-employment.

I wonder how many people were real, hardcore technology workers. I wonder if they're including jobs like tech support in there. I also wonder how many have technological-related degrees.

 

[bozack]

my company has also mentioned that they are considering India's resources for their programming needs, which didn't sit too well with the on site programmers.

 

[bozack]

Originally posted by: Infohawk
Honestly, are there any professional jobs that are safe in the US? Maybe lawyers are a bit insulated since you have to study here for a bit and pass a test here... but who knows when the Repugs will change that. Doctors are already usually foreigners. Low-wage jobs are done by Mexicans and other immigrants. There will be no stop until we are as poor as 3rd worlders.

this sounds rather racist.

 

[bozack]

Originally posted by: IHateMyJob2004
I work at adefense contractor and I can see this EVERY DAY! it's totally horse poop.

And Microsoft is outsourcing to India.

The end is near for hte US. We produce nothing, NOTHING anymore. And Bush will continue his policy of "staying the course" and ignorance over the next 4 years. I wish he'd start reading hte newspaper.

A country simply can not survive if we rely on manfactured goods from other countries. Warren Buffet said this years ago and has stated he is no longer investing in the US. That is scary as hell if you ask me.

a friend of my mothers works for Raytheon and he constantly complains about the H1-B workers, how they abuse our resouces and then take the knowledge back to their countries to compete against us....I was always under the impression that the Dems/Clinton put this into effect but haven't looked into it much as it currently doesn't effect my position.

 

[Train]

Originally posted by: lozina
What cheap goods? If our goods are getting cheaper, then that means our CPI would be on a downward trend. Dare to test that hypothesis?

foreign goods vs domestic goods. test it all you want, If doestic goods were cheaper, we wouldnt be sending jobs overseas.

 

[Engineer]

Originally posted by: ajf3
Exactly - nothing is... and the impact to 1st world workers is just the start.

Wait until we no longer have disposable funds, or possibly any funds at all for consumer spending. Then the large corps and govts will start collapsing. No more funds for foreign aid, disaster relief, basic services.

We're all going to normalize downwards to somewhere between 2nd and 3rd world nations.

...and it's not just computer technology jobs. As I said in my post above - it's basically all white collar jobs that don't require a physical presence.

disposable funds now = borrowed money. The deficit = disposable funds.

 

[imported_Condor]

Originally posted by: IHateMyJob2004
I work at adefense contractor and I can see this EVERY DAY! it's totally horse poop.

And Microsoft is outsourcing to India.

The end is near for hte US. We produce nothing, NOTHING anymore. And Bush will continue his policy of "staying the course" and ignorance over the next 4 years. I wish he'd start reading hte newspaper.

A country simply can not survive if we rely on manfactured goods from other countries. Warren Buffet said this years ago and has stated he is no longer investing in the US. That is scary as hell if you ask me.

Read your own post:

"Warren Buffet said this years ago and has stated he is no longer investing in the US. That is scary"

Your own posting predates the whole outsourcing problem to before Bush was elected. NAFTA was a real accelerator for what is happening. If you mean that Bush should be blamed for not yet fixing everything that Clinton did, I could buy that. Give him another four years and everything will be OK. It takes time to fix eight years of playboy leadership.

 

[imported_Condor]

Originally posted by: ajf3
I agree - this isn't anything that one party or another can control. It's just the way that the market is... now that broadband pipe and telecommunications are cheap, it's a whole new world.

I saw a chart from the dept of labor a while back - estimating job losses in certain fields due to outsourcing over the next 20 years - it's staggering.

We're seeing it mostly in tech/support right now, but it's going to hit most of the white collar jobs out there - accounting, finance, marketing, legal (research), radiology, research. Hell, anything you can do entirely or mostly on a computer can be oursourced.

Over the next couple of years it's really going to hit the financial sector - recently saw an article about India(?) ramping up education to the point where they'll be graduating 50,000 CPA's a year.

They're even talking about it potentially being cheaper to fly someone overseas for a medical procedure and then fly them back when it's done.

I truely believe that this is the start of the demise of not only the US, but pretty much all 1st world nations. If you make companies pay the higher costs to hire domestically, then they can't compete with their international peers - this would lead many to simply relocate.


Good post and in addition, we have all seen the sales force in the US shrink. Where did you buy your last toy? From a sales person of off the Internet? Did you do what many of us do and go to the store to see how it worked and then rush home to order it from Overstock, Ebay, or Ecost. this is an evolutionary problem and whining just won't fix it.
Don't know what the answer is, but you can't support a nation on the service industry and good ideas...

 

[imported_Condor]

Originally posted by: Engineer
I can attest to the

anything you can do entirely or mostly on a computer can be oursourced.

Our Acounts Payable department and expense check department was just sent to Mexico. Our billing address is now a post office drawer in Texas. Receipts are now scanned and e-mailed to Mexico for expense reports.

I'd rather buy foriegn made products owned by amercian businessman than foriegn products owned by foreign busnessmen.

I would rather us all buy American made products....but there are few of them now....

Everything I have purchased lately has been made in China. I actually look in an effort to buy from America (and sometimes Europe) these days. I hate Chinese shoes, but Rockports, Reebock, Nike, Florshim, even Brown Shoe is made in China. I just purchased a pair of John Deere boots last week and they were made in China.