Fusion Microsoft = graphics/gaming pwnage?

[dzoner]

This was triggered by a story I read in which Microsoft demonstrated a game on Win 7 phone/Zune, Xbox 360 and Windows that shared 90% of it's source code.

It occured to me AMD's upcoming Fusion platforms could provide a rather striking dovetail synergy with Microsoft's strategy.

I would give long odds AMD and Microsoft are in extremely close collaboration in developing Bulldozer and Northern Islands and the Fusion platforms that will be developed from them. It's a natural fit. Fusion can provide a common, highly scalable, highly energy efficient hardware platform able to supply a set of integrated, and very advanced, cpu/gpu solutions for all of Microsoft's hardware needs. A set of solutions neither Nvidia nor Intel will be able to supply. Microsoft could supply a set of platforms tuned to Fusion, which AMD has indicated will be it's focus in the future.

I can see, in three to four years, Windows 8, Windows 8 Phone, Xbox 720 and Fusion coalescing in a unique synergy that will be very difficult to compete with.

And game developers/publishers will absolutely love.

 

[cbn]

I know ATI won the Xbox 3 contract. I have been wondering if it will be APU or not?

 

[dzoner]

I know ATI won the Xbox 3 contract. I have been wondering if it will be APU or not?

Xbox 3 will coincide with 22nm APU availability = some serious cpu/gpu horsepower, probably limited only by cooling considerations and many time the performance of the Xbox 360.

 

[cbn]

Xbox 3 will coincide with 22nm APU availability = some serious cpu/gpu horsepower, probably limited only by cooling considerations and many time the performance of the Xbox 360.

Where did you read about Xbox 3 using 22nm?

If so, then the APU will probably have bulldozer modules rather than stars cores.

 

[dzoner]

Where did you read about Xbox 3 using 22nm?

If so, then the APU will probably have bulldozer modules rather than stars cores.

At CES a MS rep said flat out the Xbox 360 was no more than halfway through it's expected life, so Xbox 3 is at least three years away. Natal comes first.

Since 22nm should be in full production in 2013, Xbox 3 will probably use a cpu/gpu solution at that node.

 

[cbn]

Natal comes first.

http://www.xbox.com/en-US/live/projectnatal/

Wow, this "Natal" looks very unique.

 

[dzoner]

http://www.xbox.com/en-US/live/projectnatal/

Wow, this "Natal" looks very unique.

Definitely unique, nothing to hold, no buttons to push, no triggers to pull.

Going head to head with Nintendo for the casual gamer market.

By the time Xbox 3 rolls around with it's vastly increased computing power, this is going to get rather mind blowing.

 

[ZimZum]

http://www.xbox.com/en-US/live/projectnatal/

Wow, this "Natal" looks very unique.

Interesting. I don't know if I like this new trend in video games that requires one to leave the comfort of the couch and move around.

 

[Patrick Wolf]

I can't really see Natal being viable in most games of the popular generes like first & third person shooters, sandbox games like GTA, or RPGs where gameplay tends to be more... complex.

 

[GodisanAtheist]

Looks like its going to be strongly focused around the party gamer/Causal Gamer crowd. Naturally the Call of Dutys and the GTA's aren't going to go whole hog on it, although they could capitalize on shortcuts through simple gestures or the like (a console RTS built around this concept would be a kinda interesting experiment).

Otherwise, the whole thing smacks of group think and watching (and for that matter, believing) too many Wii propaganda videos over in Redmond.

As for the topic: Now that AMD is little more than an R&D house and has secured some serious leeway from Intel concerning their x86 license, it would not surprise me if Microsoft simply asked them to put together an x86 compatible console with all the fixins, giving Xbox & PC games 100% code compatibility and really sweetening the pot for devs to stick with them (Make one game and it works on PCs and Xbox). Might get some squealing about piracy on that front though.

 

[ronnn]

Interesting. I don't know if I like this new trend in video games that requires one to leave the comfort of the couch and move around.

Its a government plot to make us thin.

 

[Kuzi]

Xbox 3 will coincide with 22nm APU availability = some serious cpu/gpu horsepower, probably limited only by cooling considerations and many time the performance of the Xbox 360.

Even at 22nm, an APU may not provide enough power for Microsoft's console needs. The CPU side may be enough, but the IGP would not. Also console makers found that IBM RISC processors did the job well, and are more efficient for their needs than x86 CPUs.

Having said that, if Bulldozer/Sandybridge turn out to be really impressive, I do see a possibility for MS to go back to x86 and use one of those processors. But the GPU would still be stand-alone in Xbox. 3. An APU would fit nicely in a Wii 2

 

[dzoner]

it would not surprise me if Microsoft simply asked them to put together an x86 compatible console with all the fixins, giving Xbox & PC games 100% code compatibility and really sweetening the pot for devs to stick with them (Make one game and it works on PCs and Xbox). Might get some squealing about piracy on that front though.

And if the next iteration of the Microsoft phone switches to a Fusion chip, add it to the 100% code compatibility pot.

 

[tommo123]

are people really not expecting to see another console till 2013? that's nuts. is it all down to the economic crises then?

couldn't they just be trying to pull the wool over the eyes of 'the enemy'? e.g Microsoft launching a year or whatever before Sony gave them a nice advantage in spite of the massive failure rate of their kit? I mean trying for that kind of head start again?

 

[zerocool84]

Interesting. I don't know if I like this new trend in video games that requires one to leave the comfort of the couch and move around.

Yea I said the same thing when it was first announced. When I play video games, be it console or pc, I don't want to be moving around. I want to sit down a relax. Also most games that use motion controls use them as a stupid gimmick and not used well.

 

[dzoner]

Even at 22nm, an APU may not provide enough power for Microsoft's console needs. The CPU side may be enough, but the IGP would not. Also console makers found that IBM RISC processors did the job well, and are more efficient for their needs than x86 CPUs.

Having said that, if Bulldozer/Sandybridge turn out to be really impressive, I do see a possibility for MS to go back to x86 and use one of those processors. But the GPU would still be stand-alone in Xbox. 3. An APU would fit nicely in a Wii 2

22nm would provide at least 8 times the performance at the present power usage/heat of the present Xbox 360 chips.

Llano is reported to have a quad core/5750 class gpu variation at 32 nm in 2011, a six or eight core bulldozer with 5850 equivalent Northern Island performance should be easily doable at a 22 nm node in 2013. How would that not be enough? Keep in mind Fusion is going to incorporate a formidable array of power saving/scaling features.

 

[dzoner]

are people really not expecting to see another console till 2013? that's nuts. is it all down to the economic crises then?

couldn't they just be trying to pull the wool over the eyes of 'the enemy'? e.g Microsoft launching a year or whatever before Sony gave them a nice advantage in spite of the massive failure rate of their kit? I mean trying for that kind of head start again?

Simple economics. These are the cash cow years for MS and Sony consoles. Why be in a hurry to move on to the money losing early years of the next console cycle. It's time to MILK those cows.

 

[Kuzi]

22nm would provide at least 8 times the performance at the present power usage/heat of the present Xbox 360 chips.

Llano is reported to have a quad core/5750 class gpu variation at 32 nm in 2011, a six or eight core bulldozer with 5850 equivalent Northern Island performance should be easily doable at a 22 nm node in 2013. How would that not be enough? Keep in mind Fusion is going to incorporate a formidable array of power saving/scaling features.

What you say is interesting and there is always a possibility, and it would make developers lives much easier.

There is another issue here though. AFAIK, console makers don't usually use the latest process technology, but go with older, more mature, and better yielding processes instead. Then later on during the console's life cycle they migrate to smaller processes. So if we say AMD/GF gets 32nm ready by late 2010/early 2011, then we have to wait about 2 years for their 22nm process, which puts us in early 2013. It seems like a risk to me, for MS to use such an immature process.

Unless maybe XBox3 releases late 2013? Or if they go with Intel's 22nm process, which should be ready about a year earlier.

 

[ZimZum]

Its a government plot to make us thin.

Bastards. I think I'll go and make myself a BLT. Only instead of lettuce and tomatoes I'll just use more bacon. Vegetables are for hippies.

 

[Medu]

Fusion is about making a faster CPU, not GPU. We might see a fusion chip in the next Xbox but it will be there as a CPU along side a standalone GPU.

 

[BenSkywalker]

At CES a MS rep said flat out the Xbox 360 was no more than halfway through it's expected life, so Xbox 3 is at least three years away.

The PS2 is still in its lifetime(it sold millions of units last year and had some games chart too). Just because the 360 has an expected lifetime of ~8 years, doesn't mean the 720 won't come out much sooner then that(see PS2). I figured MS would be looking at 2012 at the latest, and it seems to me that 2011 may be more likely. Going with DVD9 helped MS out in the short run, but it is seriously showing its' age at this point. By 2013 DVD9 will be looking like a floppy.

22nm would provide at least 8 times the performance at the present power usage/heat of the present Xbox 360 chips.

If we were to assume that is correct, it still wouldn't be enough to include backwards compatability. Little endian processors do not emulate big endian very well, moving back to x86 would be a big step backwards(as a point of reference, the fastest i7 chip still can't go toe to toe with the PS3's CPU for SP FP- not scaled or adjusted for build process or what it would take to emulate it, straight out head to head running perfect optimized code for both).

x86 is a very bad architecture for extremely low power useage and an extremely bad processor for specialized purposes. It is extremely good at being a flexible multi purpose solution.

Fusion can provide a common, highly scalable, highly energy efficient hardware platform able to supply a set of integrated, and very advanced, cpu/gpu solutions for all of Microsoft's hardware needs. A set of solutions neither Nvidia nor Intel will be able to supply.

Tegra2 utterly trounces AMD currently, Intel has from Atom to Itanium. While neither Intel or nV may provide ideal top to bottom solutions, between the two of them it is hard to imagine AMD becoming superior on both the high end and low side and everything in between when they are so far behind on so many different fronts right now. AMD had a really good launch for a graphics card with nV shipping quite a bit behind them. Outside of that they haven't excelled at anything in quite a while. While I'm sure your conjecture plays out exactly how AMD would love to see things happen, I don't see AMD having the engineering resources to come close to making that a viable reality within the next few years(not that they won't release what they are saying they will, but it being superior to what nV/Intel combined can offer in every segment).

 

[v8envy]

I'm very excited about Natal. Not to use -- I'm just looking forward to youtube videos portraying out of shape geeks convulsing around their living rooms as if having a grand mal trying to pwn n00bs.

 

[dzoner]

I don't see AMD having the engineering resources to come close to making that a viable reality within the next few years(not that they won't release what they are saying they will, but it being superior to what nV/Intel combined can offer in every segment).

AMD has the best combined cpu + gpu engineering resources on the planet.

AMD will be able to offer a superior APU in every segment to anything nV/Intel combined can offer because only AMD will be able to offer a cutting edge CPU and a cutting edge GPU integrated on a single chip.

The details of Bulldozer, Northern Islands and their future Fusion progeny are as yet unknown, but AMD certainly has the engineering potential to produce cutting edge competitive products in all three areas.

 

[dzoner]

I'm very excited about Natal. Not to use -- I'm just looking forward to youtube videos portraying out of shape geeks convulsing around their living rooms as if having a grand mal trying to pwn n00bs.

Lol, that will be hilarious. As will be the attendent destruction derby.

 

[dzoner]

The PS2 is still in its lifetime(it sold millions of units last year and had some games chart too). Just because the 360 has an expected lifetime of ~8 years, doesn't mean the 720 won't come out much sooner then that(see PS2). I figured MS would be looking at 2012 at the latest, and it seems to me that 2011 may be more likely. Going with DVD9 helped MS out in the short run, but it is seriously showing its' age at this point. By 2013 DVD9 will be looking like a floppy.

Perhaps lifecycle would have been a better term to use.

By Xbox 720 it is likely minimum HD (SSD) storage will be 120Gb+, broadband access will be a requirement and buying a 'game' at a store will not include the physical media, but an identification code that will lock downloading encrypted gaming code keyed to a specific gamertag/machine. Everything stored on an SSD with an inpenetrable hardware based DRM/encryption scheme. And making the DVD9 limitations and any need to license Bluray irrelevant. If it used a Fusion chip and hardwired an SSD onto the same board, it could be remarkably simple and cheap to manufacture and remarkably small as well. One small board, it's power supply, cooling, a Natal port, an internet port and an HDMI port (adapters indluded).

Right now Ms and Sony have settled into their respective niches, will both be primarily gunning to take market share from Nintendo with their respective motion controlled solutions, and are more than happy to be cruising along making fat profits from their current generations for the time being. As are all their game devs and game publishers. NO ONE is in a hurry to stop milking the current cash cow.

It also means by the time the next generation arrives, it will be incredibly powerful relative to the current generation, backward compatible and have a very long life cycle. Or maybe only four times as powerful but very power efficient, cool running and quiet.