French national election is likely to reject Le Pen

[Commodus]

More good news following the shutdown of Geert Wilders in the Netherlands: it looks like Le Pen is going to lose the French national election.

To summarize: both the centrist Macron and the far right Le Pen are into the second round of the election, with Macron holding a slight two-point lead. That may sound like it's close, but remember that everyone who didn't vote for one of the two remaining candidates has to settle on one of them. And in practice, that will very likely favor Macron. He'll have most (if not all) of the left on his side, of course, but he'll likely also scoop up many conservatives who would rather have a moderate from the opposing side than an extremist on theirs. Fillon, the main conservative candidate, is endorsing Macron.

Turns out that you don't get very far in France by preying on paranoia and courting Russia. Now if only we can have that attitude translate to the US come 2018...

 

[Vic]

I'm not convinced. And Le Pen means certain war in Europe. Someone needs to tell the French that America won't be coming to save their asses again.

 

[Commodus]

I'm not convinced. And Le Pen means certain war in Europe. Someone needs to tell the French that America won't be coming to save their asses again.

Definitely not counting my chickens until they've hatched, but it's a good sign when Le Pen doesn't really have any allies among major candidates.

 

[desura]

A Frexit would cause some serious damage. Brexit was edgy. Frexit would immediately be serious. The axis of the EU and NATO is France + Germany being in an alliance.

 

[flexy]

"Certain war in Europe"

Yeah lol. What meds are you on? I am serious.

 

[Jaskalas]

Turns out that you don't get very far in France by preying on paranoia and courting Russia. Now if only we can have that attitude translate to the US come 2018...

If only we had proper elections with run offs.

 

[Pens1566]

She's down by anywhere from 25-30% in the runoff polls. Good.

 

[cytg111]

Yea, seems like people have gotten a scare with Trump and brexit (and with good reason.).. waking up the fact that it is 100.000 times easier to tear down than to build in the first place and that a semi dysfunctional EU is better than no alliance at all. Reform from within is the path forward.

 

[Sinsear]

She's down by anywhere from 25-30% in the runoff polls. Good.

Are the polls more or less accurate than the ones for the recent US Presidential election?

 

[dank69]

Are the polls more or less accurate than the ones for the recent US Presidential election?

Which "polls" were not accurate?

 

[cytg111]

Are the polls more or less accurate than the ones for the recent US Presidential election?

They seemed to be spot on actually .. was 24/22 this morning, turned out to be 23.7(Macron) and 21.8(Penn)

But she is going to get destroyed in the second round the rest of the field is pointing to Macron so it should add up to ~75/25 in favor of Macron in the end. Unless some surprise..,

 

[Commodus]

They seemed to be spot on actually .. was 24/22 this morning, turned out to be 23.7(Macron) and 21.8(Penn)

But she is going to get destroyed in the second round the rest of the field is pointing to Macron so it should add up to ~75/25 in favor of Macron in the end. Unless some surprise..,

In a sense, it's not so much whether or not Le Pen loses as the potentially wide margin of loss that I'm interested in. France might just give her a not-so-subtle clue that she should go to hell.

 

[Vic]

"Certain war in Europe"

Yeah lol. What meds are you on? I am serious.

Read a history book. The only time in all of recorded history that Europe hasn't been at war with itself is the last 72 years.

 

[cytg111]

Which "polls" were not accurate?

all of them minus a few?

Read a history book. The only time in all of recorded history that Europe hasn't been at war with itself is the last 72 years.

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

This so much. Problem is it is so long ago now that people are taking peace for granted, begins to bitch over miniscule issues.. and thats when candidates like Pen sees an oppertunity to push their misguided agenda.
I take note that Trump took an interrest in Pen today on twitter.. small minds think alike.

 

[dank69]

all of them minus a few?


This so much. Problem is it is so long ago now that people are taking peace for granted, begins to bitch over miniscule issues.. and thats when candidates like Pen sees an oppertunity to push their misguided agenda.
I take note that Trump took an interrest in Pen today on twitter.. small minds think alike.

Which polls missed the margin of error?

 

[theeedude]

The world is going to hell.

 

[local]

I wonder if this is how the rest of the world viewed Trumps chances in our election. I wouldn't assume anything at this point anymore.

 

[chowderhead]

Britexit polling was very close and leave led for most of the race and only switched to remain at the very end. Clinton only led by single digits in polling and won the popular vote but lost in some key states. There is no electoral college in France so Le Pen would have to have Macron completely fall apart in the next week with serious scandal to overcome a 20 point plus deficit. Never say never but the comparasion with Trump or Britexit and Le Pen is not the same.

 

[woolfe9998]

Results are in. Le Len barely took second and so is in the runoff. The number 3 and 4 candidates have endorsed Macron, however, so it looks like Macron will win the runoff. We'll see.

Nate Silver doesn't think she has much chance, and he's the one who gave Trump a decent chance to win.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/le-pen-is-in-a-much-deeper-hole-than-trump-ever-was/

Macron leads by 26 points in head to head polling. The same pollsters nailed the first round very accurately.

 

[FIVR]

The French should be uniquely susceptible to Trump-style nonsense but unfortunately (I don't like the french) their government is set up in such a way where even if LePen were to win this election she would not have the power that Trump does. Right now, it looks like she will lose badly.

 

[jackstar7]

If Macron wins handily, do we see another call from twitter for "Freedom Fries"?

 

[cytg111]

Of course, not like they didnt try
https://www.google.dk/amp/s/mobile..../world/europe/french-election-russia.amp.html
Maybe just maybe social medias crackdown on fake news and accounts is working..

 

[alcoholbob]

Read a history book. The only time in all of recorded history that Europe hasn't been at war with itself is the last 72 years.

There have been wars in Europe in the last 72 years, but certainly there hasn't been any outbreak of continent-wide conflicts. The pacification of Germany has been the primary reason as they instigated both World Wars in Europe. But I'm not sure why you think Le Pen is going to start WWIII.

 

[cytg111]

Which polls missed the margin of error?

I think that statistical variation misses the point by a small margin of error here.

 

[cytg111]

There have been wars in Europe in the last 72 years, but certainly there hasn't been any outbreak of continent-wide conflicts. The pacification of Germany has been the primary reason as they instigated both World Wars in Europe. But I'm not sure why you think Le Pen is going to start WWIII.

Noone said that Pen would start a war. I think it was implied that there is limits to what the European Union can withstand and that a frexit would be could be a deciding factor in such an outcome. Without the Union Europe might fall back to its old shenannigans... noone said Pen would declare war on anybody.(i dont even, why even go there?).