Originally posted by: sandorski
Originally posted by: Armitage
Originally posted by: sandorski
Originally posted by: Armitage
Originally posted by: sandorski
Originally posted by: SuperTool
Originally posted by: sandorski
The Big 3 have been protected from foreign competition for Decades now and they are still losing ground. From "Market Dumping" to SUV classification shenanigans they have been surviving all the while avoiding producing competitive products. Remove the Protections and they'll be forced to compete.
On a somewhat related Trade Protection scheme that is backfiring, the Softwood Lumber Tarriffs(some 26% tarriff last I heard) imposed to keep cheap Canadian Softwood Lumber out of the US has had an unforeseen result. The Canadian Softwood Lumber Industry has grown leaner and meaner not only surviving the extremely high Tarrifs and the dramatic strengthening of the $CDN, but they are once again very fiscally healthy at the time that repeated Trade Panels have ruled that the US Tarrif is likely twice what they should be.
Protectionism doesn't work! Especially when Industry's sole purpose is to maximize Shareholder returns above the need to be Competitive. Remove the need to be competitive, remove the ambition to try and be competitive.
This is relevant how? It seems to me that CA is protectionist of Toyota Prius hybrid, social engineering a market demand for it.
They are not being Protectionist, they are encouraging Fuel Efficiency. The fact that Toyota has succeeded shows that it is possible, the fact that no one else has really tried to make a competitive Product is tough sh1t for them.
So why are they singling out a single technology, rather then just "encouraging Fuel Efficiency"?
Social Engineering? Sure, but though this term is relatively new, Social Engineering has been going on ever since 2 cavemen decided not to club each other to death and instead work together to accomplish a common goal. Without it DRivers would mow down Pedestrians, Sewage would run down the street, we'd all be running around Naked in an African jungle assuming we hadn't become extinct by now. The term "Social Engineering" as used in Modern speak is a meaningless phrase designed to evoke fears of Commies, because yelling "Commie!" makes one look ridiculous. 😉
That's a good question. Perhaps the Fuel Efficiency arguement is only part of it and the other part is the encouraging of Auto Makers to begin the transition from the current Internal Combustion Engine to Hybrids or Alternative Fueled vehicles.
See, that's my point. The government shouldn't be picking technologies. Maybe sweeten the pot to encourage R&D (and production) of fuel efficiency, but let the market decide how to get there. What if they bet on the wrong horse hybrids turn out to be a dead end?
The Market is great for determining Prices, but that's about it. If it was left to the Market the Internal Combustion Engine would last far longer than it should. R&D into alternatives has been going on for a long time now, it's time to start putting Alternatives to use. Also, though California is a major Economy in its' own right(in comparison on a Global scale, something like the 4th largest economy in the world!), it is still just a State with limited ability to affect Regulations and even Technologies. As such, they can't do much more than what they are proposing with this Bill.
And this is all about prices. Economics is everything. If an alternative can do what an ICE does, but do it cheaper, ICEs will be out faster then you can spit. But you have to add in the total cost. Maybe hydrogen fuel cells will do it better ... but wait, there's no fuel distibution infrastructure for hydrogen ... cha-ching.
Now ICEs are remarkably efficient and reliable ... they've been being perfected for a long time. So the bar is very high for an alternative, especially in the US where fuel prices are such a small part of the TCO for most vehicles. Here's an example:
Honda Civic EX: MSRP $17260, 37/32 MPG
Honda Civic Hybrid: MSRP $19650, 51/46 MPG
(from cars.com)
Driving 15K miles/year with fuel @ $2/gallon, it will take 8.4 years to pay off the price difference for comperably equipped vehicles. That's for city driving. For highway it's about 10.7 years. Of course, you should add in depreciation as well, and I suspect that the hybrid may depreciate faster due to maintenance concerns.
So, right now, the technology is not yet economically viable. Until it gets closer to being economically viable, research investment will be minimal.
So, if we consider it to be a good thing to lower fuel consumption (which = less emissions) then something needs to offset that difference. Legislation may be an answer, but it shouldn't try to pick the winners. Probably the fairest way to do this is fuel taxes. An econobox car isn't feasible for everybody, but moving to an SUV that gets 25MPG instead of 20MPG saves as much gas as an econobox that gets 45mpg instead of 40mpg. But I think gas prices would have to get MUCH higher before we'll see that kind of thinking.
I think I've diverged a bit. Oh well.