I will except your 1200 number----my earlier 700 estimate was deliberately consevative. But let me ask you, where do you think this 58 year old problem is heading?
That is the simple question to be asked now?
Is this to morph into a 6 million Israelies against 1.4 billion Moslems conflict? Given all the other dynamics and foreign policy objectives of all the worlds major countries, Israel at this late date seems to think it can still engage in collective punishment against any small regional country. I just find it very disturbing that Israel, collectively now seems to be pushing to the right and listening to no one but themselves. While at the same time, in the arab world, the actions of Hezbollah are pushing them into the terrorist camp. With almost no voice of moderation left on either side.
Please understand that I think that it will be a diaster if the terrorists win-----but as an person, I have to be honest with my self and conclude that the terrorists are winning. And that victory in most part is assured by the tactics of GWB, who in his inept fight to win the war on terrorism, is instead being their number one recruiter. Maybe Uncle Sam will be stupid enough to take on Iran, I am quite sure Israel would rejoice, but even then it would only change the dynamics in the mid-east for a short time. And I have zero faith in GWB to excerize any long term foreign policy wisdom. Anyone who follows US politics will concede that America is now a deeply divided country. The election in 11/06 could go either way with both major parties spinning and twisting events to conform with their visions of the future. But if Iraq goes into a full blown civil war that spills past the borders of Iraq, that also could be an event of far ranging consequences. If Iraq goes civil war before 11/06, its likely to be an end to GWB and the current, best case dream senario for Israel, government in the USA. Even if Iraq blows up after 11/06, it will be a total trama for the USA that will likely push the Washington prevailing wisdom in dramatic and unpredectable ways. But sooner or later GWB will discredit himself totally and will be replaced by a more rational leader EXTREMELY UNLIKELY to persue his policies. By then, at the latest, this mid-east problem will celebrate its 61'st birthday if a military solution does not resolve itself with a total arab victory. With a 0% chance that the crisis will resolve itself with a total Israeli military victory.
That is my frank assessment of the current position on the chess board---you can quibble if you like---but we are talking future not past---so only yet to occur events will show who is correct. With no one scoring 100%------and it won't pleasure me any to see that I am basically correct on future predictions while Israel get erased from the map and the terrorists win.--while at the same time its likely to cause a future world wide economic depression if not a world war with nukes used.
But I am a chess player----and a pretty good one if I do say so myself----so I understand that total victory show no mercy or quarter to the opponent stuff. But a good chess player is always asking----what is the meanest nastiest thing I can do to my opponent----and at the same time---unless they are over optimist fools---are asking what is the meanest nastiest
thing my opponent can do to me. And in the end, its usually the person who sees futhest ahead and plays their opponents game better than the opponent plays their game that wins.
In what amounts to a war of attrition.-------and nothing but my ego or my opponents ego is harmed in the end.
But chess is very unlike real life---where the win win is having both myself and others doing reasonably well---and if anyone gets cheated, that sore loser is likely to become a terrorist and maybe I pay the forfeit when his bomb gets me.
So at this time I will ask any on the pro-Israelie side---or for that matter on the pro-arab side, What is Israel's best long term chess strategy now? Toss out all prior history, toss out all concepts of right and wrong---that aids you none with an enemy with the power will kill you without mercy, so this is about raw power and winning the game of survival long term. Also understand that your great protector Uncle Sammy may soon have a nervous breakdown and no longer be there for you.---so factor that in also.
There seems two broad options.
A. Since the more numerous arabs are modernizing collectively far faster than Israel, should Israel strike now, and try to grab as big of a buffer zone as possible while their military hegmony is still in the shape it is in? Risking world condemnation but betting no one will do anything to stop Israel. The time honored way in which small countries get to be big countries. If you can convert the conquered into being part of your forces, historical precedent shows the growth can be trulty exponential---look at the birth of Islam---in a century it started in two cities---and then spread at least to India in the East-----and well up to parts of France to the West. But fail to convert the inhabitants---and the gains are usually temporary.
B. Since Israel is in a good position still---try to negotiate the best peace possible and then forge mutual interests with your arab neighbors. Which cuts the very ground out from the terrorist who is then seen as nothing but a bomb thrower and a nut. As the majority on both sides put their energy into building better lives for themselves and their families. The hatreds remain but dilute over time.
C. Insert your own senario.
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