for risk takers: Why pay TAX?

[McPhreak]

<< House edge calculator for BJ >>



All these stats are for the first hand of a newly reshuffled deck only. As the game progresses, your chances of losing gradually increase. Assuming you aren't autistically savant and can count 6-deck shoes like Rain Man, if craps is really only a 1.4% disadvantage, then I think it's probably the most even game in the casino. Otherwise, I still stand by Roulette @ 47.3/52.7.

 

[Lucky]

<<

<< House edge calculator for BJ >>



All these stats are for the first hand of a newly reshuffled deck only. As the game progresses, your chances of losing gradually increase. Assuming you aren't autistically savant and can count 6-deck shoes like Rain Man, if craps is really only a 1.4% disadvantage, then I think it's probably the most even game in the casino. Otherwise, I still stand by Roulette @ 47.3/52.7. >>




Look, you can think whatever you want, but BJ has the best odds of any table game. I can provide you with 50 links confirming this, if you want. Here's one for example. The only thing that even comes close is in craps on come/dont come, pass/dont pass IF YOU TAKE ODDS.

If you really think the best table game has a 2.5% HA, then you dont goto casinos enough. I do this stuff day in, day out, everyday.

Heres another one explaining the HA.

 

[StageLeft]

I've heard that BJ also has the best odds of winning for you such that depending on the BJ setup at that casino (some are different) a HIGHLY skilled player can make it damn near even with the house.

 

[StageLeft]

<< I do this stuff day in, day out, everyday.
>>

So how are you doing vs. house? :Q

 

[Lucky]

<< I've heard that BJ also has the best odds of winning for you such that depending on the BJ setup at that casino (some are different) a HIGHLY skilled player can make it damn near even with the house. >>



Right. If you know how to count you can gain up to at most, a .05% to 1% advantage over the house. However, to do this, especially without being detected, requires a lot of time and patience to master. I've read a few articles written by folks who did this for a living (recruited people to play with them playing BJ professionally) and they say women are less likely to be detected as a card counter, especially if they are cute/charming.

 

[Lucky]

<<

<< I do this stuff day in, day out, everyday.
>>

So how are you doing vs. house? :Q >>





I play online, for the most part. Bonuses are where I make up for the HA. A casino gives you (for example) $100 bonus on a $100 deposit. In the interest of fair play, they might require $1500 playthrough. However, using a HA of .05, mathmatically I should be able to keep $75 of that $100 bonus if I play perfectly with a fair game. It doesnt always work out that way but mathmatically you are always ahead if you play smart.

 

[dullard]

<< only 1/4 of taxpayers get audited. >>




<< huh? Only like .5% of people get audited, and I think that might even be high. >>



Um you are both correct, if you explain your logic a little bit. The percent of returns audited last year were 0.56%. Lets assume that everyone files one return and that everyone has an equal 0.56% probability of being audited each year.

Thus each year you have a 99.44% chance of avoiding an audit. However, a full carreer may contain 50 years of tax returns (Assuming you started filing tax returns after college at age 25 and died at age 75). Thus your overall chance of avoiding being audited in a lifetime is 99.44% ^ 50 = 75.52%. Or the number of people who are audited in their lifetime is 100% - 75.52% = 24.48%.

Thus in a year 0.5% is the correct number, in a lifetime 25% is a good estimate. However, this assumes that the audits are completely random. I bet if you had lots of unusual tax issues, your chance of being audited will be higher than 0.5% each year.

Edit: Blackjack is the only game where professionals can consistantly win money. This is since with minor counting it is the only game where the odds are slightly, slightly in your favor. (Unless you have a lot of rich friends that don't know how to play poker...)

 

[GermyBoy]

Because a new tax law is that if you don't pay, you spontaneously combust.

 

[SuperTool]

I pay because Dubya doesn't want me to pay
He wants to give me taxcut, so I pay taxes to spite him
What pisses me off is that the states that get the most pork per capita from the feds are the ones whose people complain the most about taxes.

 

[Frolodo]

Why didn't anyone mention yet that filing taxes ARE NOT random?

If you file correctly you have just above 0% chance of getting audited. If you don't file you have nearly 100% chance of getting a butt buddy in jail. 100% is not good odds.

Consult the irs to find out if skipping one year will put you in jail. It may take a couple times ignoring the irs to do that.