Florida May Just Turn Blue in November...

Amused

Elite Member
Apr 14, 2001
55,851
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Florida Supreme Court Allows 6 week Abortion ban to stand AND to allow a state constitutional amendment to preserve abortion access to remain on the ballot in Nov.

FL may just turn blue!


Florida Supreme Court allows one of nation’s strictest abortion bans to take effect

The high court simultaneously ruled that a referendum enshrining abortion rights can go on the November ballot.​

Florida’s conservative Supreme Court ruled Monday that the state’s constitution does not protect abortion rights, allowing one of the country’s strictest and most far-reaching abortion bans to take effect on May 1.

But in a separate decision, the high court also ruled that an amendment to enshrine abortion rights in the state’s constitution can go on the November ballot, for a vote that could undo the new strict abortion ban in a matter of months.

Together, the two rulings will ensure that abortion is a major issue in Florida in the presidential election — with Floridians experiencing the realities of a six-week abortion ban for six months before they have the opportunity to cast a vote on the issue.

“Today’s rulings prove exactly what is at stake at the ballot box,” said Nikki Fried, the chair of the Florida Democratic Party. “Florida voters understand that voting yes on Amendment 4 in November is our last line of defense.”

The abortion ban ruling will have a dual effect on abortion access in Florida. While the case centered on the constitutionality of the state’s existing 15-week ban, which took effect in the summer of 2022, the court’s ruling will also trigger a far stricter law passed last spring that will outlaw abortion after six weeks of pregnancy, before many people know they’re pregnant. Florida’s six-week ban was written to take effect only if the Supreme Court greenlit the 15-week law.
The six-week ban in Florida — which includes exceptions for rape, incest, fatal fetal anomalies and medical emergencies — will all but eliminate abortion access in the South, while further straining abortion clinics elsewhere across America.

“There is nowhere in the Southeast that can absorb Florida’s patient base. It’s simply not possible,” said Lauren Brenzel, the campaign director of Floridians Protecting Freedom, a campaign dedicated to putting abortion on the ballot in Florida in 2024. “That is simply an unmanageable volume of patients to try to offset to another state.”

The abortion ban ruling significantly narrows the scope of a provision in the Florida Constitution that protects the right to privacy, added by voters in 1980 and long interpreted by courts as a safeguard against abortion restrictions.

“We conclude there is no basis under the Privacy Clause to invalidate the statute,” Justice Jamie Grosshans wrote in the opinion that will allow the strict new ban to take effect. “In doing so, we recede from our prior decisions in which — relying on reasoning the U.S. Supreme Court has rejected — we held that the Privacy Clause guaranteed the right to receive an abortion through the end of the second trimester.”

Antiabortion advocates in Florida immediately celebrated the ruling.

“I am ecstatic, having spent a lifetime of work leading up to this moment,” said John Stemberger, a leading abortion opponent in Florida and the president of Liberty Counsel Action, a conservative advocacy group. “We’ve been arguing for 35 years that the privacy clause was about informational privacy and was never intended by the people to create a fundamental right to abortion. That was a judicial construct of the older, activist Florida Supreme Court. We were right about this all along. It’s a huge victory.”

The two decisions issued Monday offer a snapshot into the conflicting political forces in Florida and across the nation since the fall of Roe v. Wade in 2022. While Florida’s high court has grown significantly more conservative under Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), surveys show most of the state’s voters oppose bans on abortion during the very early stages of pregnancy.

Last year, more than 82,000 people got abortions in Florida, more than almost any other state, and far more than were previously reported in any of the 17 states that have now banned all or most abortions. Of the states with bans, Texas had the most reported abortions before the new wave of antiabortion laws, with more than 50,000 abortions performed in the state in 2019.
Voters in November will have a chance to decide if they want women to be able to continue to access the procedure. The Floridians Protecting Freedom coalition gathered more than 1.5 million signatures in less than nine months to put the proposal on the ballot — far more than the 891,523 needed.

Florida Attorney General Ashley Moody objected to the language in the proposed amendment, saying it was too broad. But in their ruling Monday, the justices wrote that the amendment’s intent and potential scope was more than clear.

“The broad sweep of this proposed amendment is obvious in the language of the summary,” they wrote. “Denying this requires a flight from reality.”

Abortion rights advocates said the simultaneous rulings underscored just what will be at stake when voters head to the polls in November.

“This is about to create an unprecedented health care crisis in the state of Florida,” said Lauren Brenzel, campaign director for Floridians Protection Freedom, the group behind Amendment 4.

The proposed amendment states: “No law shall prohibit, penalize, delay, or restrict abortion before viability or when necessary to protect the patient’s health, as determined by the patient’s healthcare provider.” A 60 percent supermajority would need to vote in favor of the amendment to add it to the constitution.

Florida’s current 15-week ban has already compelled many patients to seek abortion care elsewhere, including those with life-threatening pregnancy complications. A six-week ban in Florida will affect tens of thousands of more people, forcing many to drive hundreds of miles to undergo the procedure.

The six-week ban emerged as an issue in DeSantis’s bid for the Republican presidential nomination. Antiabortion activists have praised the law, but former president Donald Trump, the GOP’s presumptive nominee, has called the six-week ban “terrible.” Some Republicans, pointing to recent electoral defeats for antiabortion causes, have warned of a political backlash in the general election against strict bans.

The ruling reflects a major shift for the Florida Supreme Court, which has struck down several abortion restrictions over the past few decades. It has recently been reshaped by DeSantis into what many consider one of the most conservative courts in the country. Several judges who ruled to uphold the abortion ban have roots in the antiabortion movement.

One of those justices, Charles Canady, is a former Republican congressman who sponsored legislation to outlaw abortions later in pregnancy. His wife, state Rep. Jennifer Canady (R), co-sponsored the six-week abortion ban.

Advocates in Florida are now looking to the 2024 election — and a potential ballot initiative that would allow Floridians to add an amendment to their state constitution that explicitly protects abortion rights.
 
Last edited:

hal2kilo

Lifer
Feb 24, 2009
23,424
10,317
136
Florida Supreme Court Allows 6 week Abortion ban to stand AND an to allow a state constitutional amendment to preserve abortion access to remain on the ballot in Nov.

FL may just turn blue!


Florida Supreme Court allows one of nation’s strictest abortion bans to take effect

The high court simultaneously ruled that a referendum enshrining abortion rights can go on the November ballot.​

Florida’s conservative Supreme Court ruled Monday that the state’s constitution does not protect abortion rights, allowing one of the country’s strictest and most far-reaching abortion bans to take effect on May 1.

But in a separate decision, the high court also ruled that an amendment to enshrine abortion rights in the state’s constitution can go on the November ballot, for a vote that could undo the new strict abortion ban in a matter of months.

Together, the two rulings will ensure that abortion is a major issue in Florida in the presidential election — with Floridians experiencing the realities of a six-week abortion ban for six months before they have the opportunity to cast a vote on the issue.

“Today’s rulings prove exactly what is at stake at the ballot box,” said Nikki Fried, the chair of the Florida Democratic Party. “Florida voters understand that voting yes on Amendment 4 in November is our last line of defense.”

The abortion ban ruling will have a dual effect on abortion access in Florida. While the case centered on the constitutionality of the state’s existing 15-week ban, which took effect in the summer of 2022, the court’s ruling will also trigger a far stricter law passed last spring that will outlaw abortion after six weeks of pregnancy, before many people know they’re pregnant. Florida’s six-week ban was written to take effect only if the Supreme Court greenlit the 15-week law.
The six-week ban in Florida — which includes exceptions for rape, incest, fatal fetal anomalies and medical emergencies — will all but eliminate abortion access in the South, while further straining abortion clinics elsewhere across America.

“There is nowhere in the Southeast that can absorb Florida’s patient base. It’s simply not possible,” said Lauren Brenzel, the campaign director of Floridians Protecting Freedom, a campaign dedicated to putting abortion on the ballot in Florida in 2024. “That is simply an unmanageable volume of patients to try to offset to another state.”

The abortion ban ruling significantly narrows the scope of a provision in the Florida Constitution that protects the right to privacy, added by voters in 1980 and long interpreted by courts as a safeguard against abortion restrictions.

“We conclude there is no basis under the Privacy Clause to invalidate the statute,” Justice Jamie Grosshans wrote in the opinion that will allow the strict new ban to take effect. “In doing so, we recede from our prior decisions in which — relying on reasoning the U.S. Supreme Court has rejected — we held that the Privacy Clause guaranteed the right to receive an abortion through the end of the second trimester.”

Antiabortion advocates in Florida immediately celebrated the ruling.

“I am ecstatic, having spent a lifetime of work leading up to this moment,” said John Stemberger, a leading abortion opponent in Florida and the president of Liberty Counsel Action, a conservative advocacy group. “We’ve been arguing for 35 years that the privacy clause was about informational privacy and was never intended by the people to create a fundamental right to abortion. That was a judicial construct of the older, activist Florida Supreme Court. We were right about this all along. It’s a huge victory.”

The two decisions issued Monday offer a snapshot into the conflicting political forces in Florida and across the nation since the fall of Roe v. Wade in 2022. While Florida’s high court has grown significantly more conservative under Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), surveys show most of the state’s voters oppose bans on abortion during the very early stages of pregnancy.

Last year, more than 82,000 people got abortions in Florida, more than almost any other state, and far more than were previously reported in any of the 17 states that have now banned all or most abortions. Of the states with bans, Texas had the most reported abortions before the new wave of antiabortion laws, with more than 50,000 abortions performed in the state in 2019.
Voters in November will have a chance to decide if they want women to be able to continue to access the procedure. The Floridians Protecting Freedom coalition gathered more than 1.5 million signatures in less than nine months to put the proposal on the ballot — far more than the 891,523 needed.

Florida Attorney General Ashley Moody objected to the language in the proposed amendment, saying it was too broad. But in their ruling Monday, the justices wrote that the amendment’s intent and potential scope was more than clear.

“The broad sweep of this proposed amendment is obvious in the language of the summary,” they wrote. “Denying this requires a flight from reality.”

Abortion rights advocates said the simultaneous rulings underscored just what will be at stake when voters head to the polls in November.

“This is about to create an unprecedented health care crisis in the state of Florida,” said Lauren Brenzel, campaign director for Floridians Protection Freedom, the group behind Amendment 4.

The proposed amendment states: “No law shall prohibit, penalize, delay, or restrict abortion before viability or when necessary to protect the patient’s health, as determined by the patient’s healthcare provider.” A 60 percent supermajority would need to vote in favor of the amendment to add it to the constitution.

Florida’s current 15-week ban has already compelled many patients to seek abortion care elsewhere, including those with life-threatening pregnancy complications. A six-week ban in Florida will affect tens of thousands of more people, forcing many to drive hundreds of miles to undergo the procedure.

The six-week ban emerged as an issue in DeSantis’s bid for the Republican presidential nomination. Antiabortion activists have praised the law, but former president Donald Trump, the GOP’s presumptive nominee, has called the six-week ban “terrible.” Some Republicans, pointing to recent electoral defeats for antiabortion causes, have warned of a political backlash in the general election against strict bans.

The ruling reflects a major shift for the Florida Supreme Court, which has struck down several abortion restrictions over the past few decades. It has recently been reshaped by DeSantis into what many consider one of the most conservative courts in the country. Several judges who ruled to uphold the abortion ban have roots in the antiabortion movement.

One of those justices, Charles Canady, is a former Republican congressman who sponsored legislation to outlaw abortions later in pregnancy. His wife, state Rep. Jennifer Canady (R), co-sponsored the six-week abortion ban.

Advocates in Florida are now looking to the 2024 election — and a potential ballot initiative that would allow Floridians to add an amendment to their state constitution that explicitly protects abortion rights.
This is the game changer. Hopefully we may get to say goodbye to Rick Scott. And maybe no electoral college votes for the Orange one. That would sink him.
 
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Pens1566

Lifer
Oct 11, 2005
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Yeah, no. I don't think this will tip the state in the general. There is no valid state party structure on the D side at all.
 
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hal2kilo

Lifer
Feb 24, 2009
23,424
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Yeah, no. I don't think this will tip the state in the general. There is no valid state party structure on the D side at all.
Yea, I don't get what has happened with the Dem party down there. Stupid to keep their eye off the ball. Pubs do so many shenanigans with running fake Dem candidates, you name it.
 

MrSquished

Lifer
Jan 14, 2013
21,203
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Florida is fucked. Shit down there is scary. I feel bad for the sane blue people. They may vote yes on the abortion rights but that shit going for Trump. Florida is toxic.
 

GodisanAtheist

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2006
6,794
7,138
136
Florida has a history of voting very blue on state questions while voting red for politicians.

-Flordia is the California of red states (not entirely fair to Cali, but I'm trying to make a point).

Ostensible one party rule, but you get some weird ass results when you actually pose questions to voters.

Have regularly been surprised by Floridians, for example allowing felons to vote once their term is up. Of course then the legislature walked that back about as far as they could afterward.

We'll probably have legal weed in Florida and enshrined abortion rights after this election, as well as an even redder state house.
 

Sunburn74

Diamond Member
Oct 5, 2009
5,027
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"One of those justices, Charles Canady, is a former Republican congressman who sponsored legislation to outlaw abortions later in pregnancy. His wife, state Rep. Jennifer Canady (R), co-sponsored the six-week abortion ban."

Seems a clear conflict of interest here... guy should have abstained.
 
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BoomerD

No Lifer
Feb 26, 2006
62,858
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Other than the electoral votes we might gain if Flori-Duh went blue...do we REALLY want to be associated with "Flori-Duh Man?"

Bugs had the right idea...

bugsbunny-florida.gif
 

manly

Lifer
Jan 25, 2000
11,006
2,126
126
-Flordia is the California of red states (not entirely fair to Cali, but I'm trying to make a point).

Ostensible one party rule, but you get some weird ass results when you actually pose questions to voters.

Have regularly been surprised by Floridians, for example allowing felons to vote once their term is up. Of course then the legislature walked that back about as far as they could afterward.

We'll probably have legal weed in Florida and enshrined abortion rights after this election, as well as an even redder state house.
I'm not buying that Floriduh will be purple in November, but they have history as a coin flip state over multiple election cycles. Even as recently as 2018 when DeSantis barely won. With its growing population, it's not a state I would just write off for the next decade or two.

Even Texas, which looks like a lost cause for the foreseeable future until its voters get their heads out of their asses, has to reelect Ted Cruz every 6 years and that's not as solid a lock as any other statewide race there.
 

dank69

Lifer
Oct 6, 2009
35,320
28,563
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-Flordia is the California of red states (not entirely fair to Cali, but I'm trying to make a point).

Ostensible one party rule, but you get some weird ass results when you actually pose questions to voters.

Have regularly been surprised by Floridians, for example allowing felons to vote once their term is up. Of course then the legislature walked that back about as far as they could afterward.

We'll probably have legal weed in Florida and enshrined abortion rights after this election, as well as an even redder state house.
Every red state that put it on the ballot has resoundingly chosen abortion rights. It's because people who vote Republican are only doing it because they were conditioned to hate Democrats.

They don't know anything about policy beyond snappy sound bites. If you ask them if they support liberal policies they say yes if they don't know they are liberal policies. All it takes is one talking head to tell them a bill is loaded with socialism and they'll cut off their own dicks to prevent it passing.
 

Amused

Elite Member
Apr 14, 2001
55,851
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Trump beat Biden in FL by only 2.2%. Just 51.22% voted for Trump.

FL is not solidly red like Kansas, Alabama or Tennessee.
 

Stokely

Golden Member
Jun 5, 2017
1,576
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Obama won FL twice, so it's hardly as solid red as TX has been.

That said, its governor is definitely in the running with Abbott for "shittiest person in politics", or at least runner up after he got absolutely trounced by the #1 guy Trump. And as others have stated, the Democrats are worthless here.

We get a lot of the fearful hate-filled retirees from the rest of you, so maybe some thanks are in order for taking one for the team? :) Seriously, some (all?) of the over-55 communities are Trump city, and even though I'm old enough to live in them I'd rather hit myself in the head with a shovel than be surrounded by old Trumpers.

As far as being sane here in FL--I'm in a purple county that squeaked by for Biden, so it's not as bad as it could be. You get into the sticks and whoo boy. But then you can probably say that about most states. I remember seeing a confederate flag covering the entire roof of a house in upstate NY.
 
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K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
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I'm skeptical but this is probably the best shot Biden could have at it. Anyway the amendments will help ensure D turnout doesn't collapse which could have implications for state house races.
 
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fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
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Obama won FL twice, so it's hardly as solid red as TX has been.

That said, its governor is definitely in the running with Abbott for "shittiest person in politics", or at least runner up after he got absolutely trounced by the #1 guy Trump. And as others have stated, the Democrats are worthless here.

We get a lot of the fearful hate-filled retirees from the rest of you, so maybe some thanks are in order for taking one for the team? :) Seriously, some (all?) of the over-55 communities are Trump city, and even though I'm old enough to live in them I'd rather hit myself in the head with a shovel than be surrounded by old Trumpers.

As far as being sane here in FL--I'm in a purple county that squeaked by for Biden, so it's not as bad as it could be. You get into the sticks and whoo boy. But then you can probably say that about most states. I remember seeing a confederate flag covering the entire roof of a house in upstate NY.
Upstate New York is generally quite red - the problem for Republicans is about 2/3rds of the population lives in downstate, depending on how it is defined.
 

HomerJS

Lifer
Feb 6, 2002
36,046
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Florida has a history of voting very blue on state questions while voting red for politicians.
I don't think this alone will flip people who vote Republican especially since they can vote yes for ballot initiative.

What can be done to flip people is remind them their IVF is threatened and Republicans will come after their birth control.

The ballot initiative will drive up Democratic turnout. It depends on how much.
 
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fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
83,985
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I don't think this alone will flip people who vote Republican especially since they can vote yes for ballot initiative.

What can be done to flip people is remind them their IVF is threatened and Republicans will come after their birth control.

The ballot initiative will drive up Democratic turnout. It depends on how much.
Yes, this is one of the few areas where a mobilization effort is probably effective, just because abortion rights are so popular. If it motivates both abortion rights people and abortion foes that's still good news for the Democrats as the former far outnumber the latter, especially for something as draconian as a 6 week ban.
 
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HomerJS

Lifer
Feb 6, 2002
36,046
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I don't think this alone will flip people who vote Republican especially since they can vote yes for ballot initiative.

What can be done to flip people is remind them their IVF is threatened and Republicans will come after their birth control.

The ballot initiative will drive up Democratic turnout. It depends on how much.
Rethinking slightly, the ballot initiative only protects abortion rights at the state level. Some people could be forced to flip or at least stay home because Trump promised a federal 15 week ban so rights still threatened if a GOP Senator or House member is voted in.

I'm hoping a lot of them just stay home.
 

Indus

Diamond Member
May 11, 2002
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Isn't Florida going through an exodus of people moving to other states?
 

BoomerD

No Lifer
Feb 26, 2006
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Upstate New York is generally quite red - the problem for Republicans is about 2/3rds of the population lives in downstate, depending on how it is defined.
Same with Washington State. Perhaps 2/3 of the state tends to be red as hell, but fortunately , the Seattle Metro area is super-blue...with enough population to keep the state blue. (I live in Grays Harbor County which tends to be very red)

1712115316199.png
 

tweaker2

Lifer
Aug 5, 2000
14,522
6,953
136
I wonder if DeSantis' miserable performance in the GOP pres. primaries is going to hurt his image enough to peg him as a loser and a has-been, thus severely reducing his influence over the state party's agenda as well as wrecking his future aspirations for getting Trump out of his way.
 

BoomerD

No Lifer
Feb 26, 2006
62,858
11,262
136
I wonder if DeSantis' miserable performance in the GOP pres. primaries is going to hurt his image enough to peg him as a loser and a has-been, thus severely reducing his influence over the state party's agenda as well as wrecking his future aspirations for getting Trump out of his way.
We (the rest of the USA) can only hope...