Hard Drive based players have a better chance of dying. Flash is pretty much unbreakable.
I'd go flash as it is getting pretty cheap anyways. One of the reasons Apple decided to cut the 4GB iphone. Jobs probably secured a deal with Samsung on 8gb/16gb/32gb Flash Chips.
Flash life is a variable because itis primarily a function of how many times you write to it. Reads don't cause a problem, but writing is what is limited. Ergo, if you load it up with reference files, and then just read them, it could last indefinitely. There are plenty of tech articles on the web that you can Google on the subject.
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