irishScott
Lifer
- Oct 10, 2006
- 21,562
- 3
- 0
At best, the asteroid will be traveling with enough velocity to make the opposite force of the explosion tear it apart. At worst, the explosion will induce thrust that will push the asteroid onto a more favorable path.
Red Squirrel
No Lifer
Holy crap I'll be 53 then. I'll be an old fart. I'll probably be sitting on my porch chooing kids off my lawn.
MotionMan
Lifer
- Jan 11, 2006
- 17,124
- 12
- 81
sactoking
Diamond Member
- Sep 24, 2007
- 7,647
- 2,921
- 136
The article and the claim are so full of fail.
1. The precision required to attribute a probability of 650:1 is absurd for a calculation result 28 years in the future.
2. The precision required to attribute a date of 2/5/2040 is absurd for a calculation result 28 years in the future.
3. "According to NASA, amongst the ways of deflecting it are putting a probe onto the rock and using the extra gravity the craft generates to steer the asteroid away over millions of light years." A light year is a measure of distance, the amount of distance light can cover traveling for a year. According to everything we know about physics nothing can travel faster than light, it is the absolute upper limit. Yet somehow this asteroid will travel "millions of light years" in 28 years?
And really, it's just not worth it to waste more time pointing out the idiocy involved in this.
1. The precision required to attribute a probability of 650:1 is absurd for a calculation result 28 years in the future.
2. The precision required to attribute a date of 2/5/2040 is absurd for a calculation result 28 years in the future.
3. "According to NASA, amongst the ways of deflecting it are putting a probe onto the rock and using the extra gravity the craft generates to steer the asteroid away over millions of light years." A light year is a measure of distance, the amount of distance light can cover traveling for a year. According to everything we know about physics nothing can travel faster than light, it is the absolute upper limit. Yet somehow this asteroid will travel "millions of light years" in 28 years?
And really, it's just not worth it to waste more time pointing out the idiocy involved in this.
If it's made of metal/rock, yes.
If it's one of those porous types, nuking will have little to no effect.
MotionMan
Lifer
- Jan 11, 2006
- 17,124
- 12
- 81
Jeff7
Lifer
- Jan 4, 2001
- 41,596
- 20
- 81
Just about all we can do now is a very gentle nudge. And most asteroids tumble as they move, so you'd need several thrusters, and they'd have to be well-coordinated with each other, and the asteroid's tumbling would need to be well-characterized. The orbit also needs to be determined very accurately, or else the gentle nudge could turn no problem into a big problem.
The other option for tumbling asteroids is the gravitational tractor idea: Park a heavy spacecraft next to it, held in place with thrusters, and tug at the asteroid that way. Problems:
1) Launching weight is expensive.
2) The asteroid's orbit still needs to be analyzed for awhile to properly figure out where it's going to go.
3) More advance warning is better, unless a hit or miss is a matter of ± 100 miles or something crazy like that.
Other option: Build an object the same mass as the asteroid, but out of antimatter.
Then, enjoy an intense and sterilizing blast of gamma radiation as a few million tons of matter is converted into energy.
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SearchMaster
Diamond Member
- Jun 6, 2002
- 7,791
- 114
- 106
ViviTheMage
Lifer
What makes it a 1 - 625 chance? Isn't it all math? Its either on target or not.. what is going to change in space?
SunnyD
Belgian Waffler
Jeffg010
Diamond Member
- Feb 22, 2008
- 3,435
- 1
- 0
It is math, but there's plenty of factors effecting the asteroid's trajectory that will vary unknown amounts between now and 2040. So they run simulations thousands of times and change those variables. The amount of impact events to non-impact events is the calculated odds we are given.
Solar winds would be one example of a variable that we can't forecast the impact of over the given time frame.
terry107
Senior member
- Dec 8, 2005
- 891
- 0
- 0
corwin
Diamond Member
- Jan 13, 2006
- 8,644
- 9
- 81
CPA
Elite Member
- Nov 19, 2001
- 30,322
- 4
- 0
Fritzo
Lifer
- Jan 3, 2001
- 41,920
- 2,161
- 126
Almost happened in 1972:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=7M8LQ7_hWtE
This one was estimated around 300FT, and it got within 35 miles of the Earth's surface before bouncing off the atmosphere back into space. If it hit, it could have taken out a small city.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=7M8LQ7_hWtE
This one was estimated around 300FT, and it got within 35 miles of the Earth's surface before bouncing off the atmosphere back into space. If it hit, it could have taken out a small city.
sactoking
Diamond Member
- Sep 24, 2007
- 7,647
- 2,921
- 136
It's the fact that by attaching a bogus probability to it they can perpetuate the notion that "NASA = smart" even though their basis in creating the probability is no more accurate than the bogus methodology used in the crappy "Deadliest Warrior" TV show.
- Jan 7, 2002
- 12,755
- 3
- 0
Jeff7
Lifer
- Jan 4, 2001
- 41,596
- 20
- 81
Here, a link from a more credible source.
Currently ranked as a 1/10 on a scale of 0-10. 1 = "A routine discovery in which a pass near the Earth is predicted that poses no unusual level of danger. Current calculations show the chance of collision is extremely unlikely with no cause for public attention or public concern. New telescopic observations very likely will lead to re-assignment to Level 0."
Once you reach Level 8, someone's going to be eating asteroid.
For example, the orbits of Mars and Earth are known pretty darn well, but the landing ellipses for rovers going to Mars are about 1x5 dozen miles. Though I'm sure they could get a more precise landing, at the expense of more telemetry hardware, a more sophisticated guidance system, and more fuel.
If someone walks into the room and shoots a bullet at you, passing within 1/16" of your head, you're probably not just going to say "Hello" and continue with what you were doing. Some sort of corrective or preventative action will likely follow.
Tunguska incinerated a substantial amount of land, the 70's thing was insanely close and could have caused a lot of damage - and yet the threat of asteroids is still just a minor issue, only really applicable to bad sci-fi movies.
Currently ranked as a 1/10 on a scale of 0-10. 1 = "A routine discovery in which a pass near the Earth is predicted that poses no unusual level of danger. Current calculations show the chance of collision is extremely unlikely with no cause for public attention or public concern. New telescopic observations very likely will lead to re-assignment to Level 0."
Once you reach Level 8, someone's going to be eating asteroid.
Yup. And the other big unknown: The orbit itself. Lots of observations are needed to figure out an orbit with good accuracy.
For example, the orbits of Mars and Earth are known pretty darn well, but the landing ellipses for rovers going to Mars are about 1x5 dozen miles. Though I'm sure they could get a more precise landing, at the expense of more telemetry hardware, a more sophisticated guidance system, and more fuel.
That's the sort of thing that's called a "wakeup call," or so you'd think.
If someone walks into the room and shoots a bullet at you, passing within 1/16" of your head, you're probably not just going to say "Hello" and continue with what you were doing. Some sort of corrective or preventative action will likely follow.
Tunguska incinerated a substantial amount of land, the 70's thing was insanely close and could have caused a lot of damage - and yet the threat of asteroids is still just a minor issue, only really applicable to bad sci-fi movies.
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