Facebook keeps rising in estimated value

[bfdd]

Most profitable company in history huh? That would be well over a 1/4 trillion in sales with 350ish billion in profits. The profit alone is like 7 times all money spent on advertising in the US for all of 2010.

I remember reading a similar story about insane future profits that just weren't possible somewhere.... Oh yeah, the .com bubble.

yeah, that's not true. FB is huge and worth a lot of money, but they are not the most profitable in history.

 

[William Gaatjes]

yeah, that's not true. FB is huge and worth a lot of money, but they are not the most profitable in history.

I am sure that i forget something because i do not know much about this. But usually, these companies are huge(virtually on the internet) but the income does not equal all the costs. What is the history of facebook ? And do companies not go to wallstreet and release shares to raise capital and sustain capital at the expense that shareholders must be kept happy ? Is that not the primary reason to go to wallstreet ?

 

[William Gaatjes]

OK, let's assume the $2 billion in revenue is right, and let's say they are stunningly profitable and assume a 50% net profit. That would mean they earned $1 billion in profit in 2010.

Is this company really worth 50 times earnings - no matter how rosy their prospects appear to be?

According to news i read, reuters got their hands on papers from Goldman Sachs and the revenue for 2010 is 1.2 billion dollars. Profit is 355 million dollars.

Facebook had net income of $200 million in 2009 on revenue of $777 million.

That seems indeed like a positive line.

 

[bfdd]

I am sure that i forget something because i do not know much about this. But usually, these companies are huge(virtually on the internet) but the income does not equal all the costs. What is the history of facebook ? And do companies not go to wallstreet and release shares to raise capital and sustain capital at the expense that shareholders must be kept happy ? Is that not the primary reason to go to wallstreet ?

Facebook is making money though. They generate a lot of ad revenue and they get to skim off anyone else making money off of them. I've QA'd 3rd party marketing apps on FB.

 

[bfdd]

According to news i read, reuters got their hands on papers from Goldman Sachs and the revenue for 2010 is 1.2 billion dollars. Profit is 355 million dollars.




That seems indeed like a positive line.

I have a feeling this year will be bigger. Like I said before I think 50b is overvaluing FB, but I could see around 20b. 500 million users man and a shitload of data to go along with them. They actually produce information, well they don't but their users do, and they get to "own" that information and use/sell it. Seriously 10 dollars per user for FB would probably be a deal and that's still 5b dollars.

 

[Narmer]

If I qualified to be part of this group I wouldn't be on ATPN being a miserable right wing racist.




None, I'm part of the 95-99% that don't click on ads. However, I was in the corporate finance group of a dot com (search engine) and was amazed how much revenue 1% click through generates. And how during the heyday companies would bid $10/click on keywords like "mortgage" and still have ROI.

Thanks for proving my point. I said I wouldn't mind clicking on an ad on google.com (search) but I sure as fuck don't do it in Gmail (email). I doubt that many others do it either even though the ads are tailor-made for the email I'm looking at. Also, FB has 500m "users". First, that is roughly 7% of the world population, not 16.66% as you claim. Take away the bots and users with multiple accounts and those percentages diminish quickly.

 

[William Gaatjes]

Facebook is making money though. They generate a lot of ad revenue and they get to skim off anyone else making money off of them. I've QA'd 3rd party marketing apps on FB.

They indeed seem to do well. But the tens and twenties billion numbers are just too high. If the source i got the numbers for 2010 from are true and the numbers are true, then indeed there is a rise in profit from 2009 to 2010.

 

[bfdd]

They indeed seem to do well. But the tens and twenties billion numbers are just too high. If the source i got the numbers for 2010 from are true and the numbers are true, then indeed there is a rise in profit from 2009 to 2010.

Like I said, 10 dollars per user would still be 5 billion. That's not including their technology. 20b seems like a more realistic measure imo.

 

[William Gaatjes]

Like I said, 10 dollars per user would still be 5 billion. That's not including their technology. 20b seems like a more realistic measure imo.

If you say so. I am the nosy technician, not the financial expert. ^_^

 

[JS80]

I am just expressing my opinions on what my expectations will be in FB's growth. I predict in 5 years they will have $10 billion in revenue, and in 10 years they will possibly have top 10 market cap.

But to claim dotcom bubble, webvan, pets.com is showing your ignorance.

 

[bfdd]

I am just expressing my opinions on what my expectations will be in FB's growth. I predict in 5 years they will have $10 billion in revenue, and in 10 years they will possibly have top 10 market cap.

But to claim dotcom bubble, webvan, pets.com is showing your ignorance.

there is going to be another dotcom bubble, probably not as bad as last time, but there will be one. sites like digg will be the ones that go boom, not FB. btw I don't predict FB being anywhere near as big as they are now in 10 years. 5 will probably be the peak and down from there imo.

 

[ConstipatedVigilante]

FB doesn't have the email platform now. But in 5 years they will have stolen a huge chunk of market share from Gmail. Kids growing up these days don't have email. They have a FB account and their means of communications is FB msg and txt msg. FB has rolled out a comprehensive messaging platform that combines FB msging, txt msg, and email into one. These kids graduating and going on to college will have an @facebook.com email and will go on to become working adults with @facebook.com emails. .

Um, no. I'm not sure where you got the idea that kids these days think that Facebook=email. Every person I know in college has an e-mail account for personal and official business. Listing a "facebook email" on a resume will never be acceptable.

 

[Throckmorton]

So I assume that you intend to be one of the bagholders/investors?

Pretty much the entire history of the Internet says you are wrong.

I wonder if we can dig up AT forum posts about Google back in 1999

 

[JS80]

there is going to be another dotcom bubble, probably not as bad as last time, but there will be one. sites like digg will be the ones that go boom, not FB. btw I don't predict FB being anywhere near as big as they are now in 10 years. 5 will probably be the peak and down from there imo.

I was just referring to FB. I am saying it's not as bubbly as people think. They have 99% market share and will never lose it and have real revenue, great margins, and hyper growth. They have not even started yet to monetize on anything.

There is a tech bubble now. Since FB is so exclusive, everyone is chasing everything. I know because my company is in the process of selling now and hopefully we get a ridiculous valuation and I can retire with my options.

 

[Brigandier]

I personally think FaceBook(FB) has become the oreo of the internet, nothing is going to replace it, something may come along that does something it doesn't, but FB won't be replaced.

 

[bfdd]

I personally think FaceBook(FB) has become the oreo of the internet, nothing is going to replace it, something may come along that does something it doesn't, but FB won't be replaced.

FB will be replaced when FB is no longer needed. IMO that isn't all that far away, like I said in 10 years I doubt there will be a facebook.

 

[Brigandier]

FB will be replaced when FB is no longer needed. IMO that isn't all that far away, like I said in 10 years I doubt there will be a facebook.

I think you underestimate herd mentality, in ten years there will be FB tablets, smart phones, surfaces, headset integration, anything you can think of. Any technology here on out will have facebook on it, they aren't pissing this money away, they are using it to develop their service, brand, technology, whatever.

 

[theeedude]

I would steer clear until they start filing regular financial reports and IPO shenanigans are past. If they are going to rule the world in 10 years, there will be buying (and selling) opportunities along the way, no need to get in the middle of a stampede.

 

[Brigandier]

I would steer clear until they start filing regular financial reports and IPO shenanigans are past. If they are going to rule the world in 10 years, there will be buying (and selling) opportunities along the way, no need to get in the middle of a stampede.

Why do all companies have to go public?