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AccruedExpenditure

Diamond Member
May 12, 2001
6,960
7
81
Originally posted by: Fritzo
Originally posted by: AccruedExpenditure
By the end of 2010 gasoline will be back under 3 bucks a gallon
-AE

Not sure how----there's no more spare capacity to make oil. I'm seeing a bing electric revolution coming.

I'm assuming you mean refining capacity to make gas in United States. While refining capacity is an issue. The current gasoline prices aren't a reflection of limited US gasoline refining capacity as much as a function of the high cost of oil globally.

The price of oil will fall eventually for two reasons

1.) Supply Side - We're clearly in a price bubble. The price of oil is up over 200 percent since the short term bottom in Jan 2007. I challenge anyone to show me another asset or commodity that has increased in price 200 percent and stuck at the higher level as a baseline. It doesn't happen. Regardless, rapid price increases lead to bubble thinking, in this case it's investment in mining and refining oil from formerly non-economically viable sources.

2.) Demand Side - Oil consumption is inelastic in the short term, but elastic in the long term. Consumer behavior will change, oil consumption per economic activity will decrease. In other words it will take less oil to earn that dollar in the future as we move to more efficient cars, trucks, and production processes. What's more is that efficiency gains are almost always irreversible, so the changes here will stick.

Decreased relative demand plus increased supply equals reduction in prices.
 

SampSon

Diamond Member
Jan 3, 2006
7,160
1
0
Originally posted by: Jessica69
Originally posted by: Xyclone
....
In order to be accurate you have to include maintenence costs for the older vehicle, possible major repairs, potential increase in fuel prices and possible decrease in gas mileage as the engine gets older.

There is also the perks of having a new(er) vehicle. Now if someone purchases a slightly used car, 1-3 years old, at a considerable discount from the new cost, the savings in fuel costs could come close to offsetting the outstanding debt incurred.
 

Special K

Diamond Member
Jun 18, 2000
7,098
0
76
Originally posted by: Fritzo
Originally posted by: AccruedExpenditure
By the end of 2010 gasoline will be back under 3 bucks a gallon
-AE

Not sure how----there's no more spare capacity to make oil. I'm seeing a bing electric revolution coming.

So you don't think speculation has anything to do with this runup in prices? If it's a speculative bubble as some believe, then sooner or later it will pop.
 

kranky

Elite Member
Oct 9, 1999
21,019
156
106
Heard a guy on a talk show yesterday who said he bought a year-old SUV for some unbelieveably cheap price and traded in his three-year-old car and still was ahead $3,000. He doesn't drive very much - he said 5,000 miles a year. His gas cost will be $300 a year higher with the lower mileage vehicle, but the $3,000 he cleared on the deal will cover that for a long time. Apparently SUVs are going for fire sale prices.
 

fire400

Diamond Member
Nov 21, 2005
5,204
21
81
Originally posted by: Aimster
Originally posted by: AccruedExpenditure
By the end of 2010 gasoline will be back under 3 bucks a gallon
-AE

I disagree

OPEC nations will get used to this price and their economies will get used to it. Take away the extra money and their economies will see negative growth.

Drop in oil and they will have to cut back on production.

2010 oil prices will easily hit over 200 USD a barrel.

Statistically, the U.S. military cannot win in the Middle East alone. They need the support of other nations and increasingly various specialist personnel involvement.

As terrorism becomes more deadlier, life is going to get harder and harder, funding M.E. nations that go through with terrorism internationally, that makes absolutely no sense. Oil for terrorism, the equation $will backfire into perhaps, the next world war.

The best hope is to continue building towards a victory for peace in the world.
 

Special K

Diamond Member
Jun 18, 2000
7,098
0
76
Originally posted by: Special K
Originally posted by: Christobevii3
Hurrr july contracts will totally make gas go up tomorrow!

That's what I was thinking when I read the thread. Aren't the prices for futures contracts for a barrel of oil to be delivered in July?

Well, I somewhat retract my previous statement. Gas prices jumped $0.11/gal overnight here. I am not exactly sure how futures work, but apparently they do influence the current price of gas even if the future contract is for a barrel of oil to be delivered in a month.
 

Pabster

Lifer
Apr 15, 2001
16,986
1
0
Originally posted by: kranky
Heard a guy on a talk show yesterday who said he bought a year-old SUV for some unbelieveably cheap price and traded in his three-year-old car and still was ahead $3,000. He doesn't drive very much - he said 5,000 miles a year. His gas cost will be $300 a year higher with the lower mileage vehicle, but the $3,000 he cleared on the deal will cover that for a long time. Apparently SUVs are going for fire sale prices.

Yep. Now's a great time to load up on big, gas-guzzling SUVs. They're for sale everywhere with lots of people desperate to get out from under the weight of the gas fill-ups alone. If you have short commutes and always wanted that big vehicle, now is the time. :laugh:
 

gar3555

Diamond Member
Jan 8, 2005
3,510
0
0
$3.87 here, I filled up yesterday, but the price didn't go up like the OP stated... Now what am I supposed to do with all these containers full of gas in the closet?
 

XZeroII

Lifer
Jun 30, 2001
12,572
0
0
OMG! Gas went up $50/gallon today! Glad I filled up yesterday like you said!
 

AccruedExpenditure

Diamond Member
May 12, 2001
6,960
7
81
Originally posted by: Aimster
Originally posted by: AccruedExpenditure
By the end of 2010 gasoline will be back under 3 bucks a gallon
-AE

I disagree

OPEC nations will get used to this price and their economies will get used to it. Take away the extra money and their economies will see negative growth.

Drop in oil and they will have to cut back on production.

Looks like you were wrong on this one buddy.
 

CrazyLazy

Platinum Member
Jun 21, 2008
2,124
1
0
Originally posted by: AccruedExpenditure
Originally posted by: Aimster
Originally posted by: AccruedExpenditure
By the end of 2010 gasoline will be back under 3 bucks a gallon
-AE

I disagree

OPEC nations will get used to this price and their economies will get used to it. Take away the extra money and their economies will see negative growth.

Drop in oil and they will have to cut back on production.

Looks like you were wrong on this one buddy.

Are you going to bump every single oil thread to brag?
 

AccruedExpenditure

Diamond Member
May 12, 2001
6,960
7
81
Originally posted by: CrazyLazy
Originally posted by: AccruedExpenditure
Originally posted by: Aimster
Originally posted by: AccruedExpenditure
By the end of 2010 gasoline will be back under 3 bucks a gallon
-AE

I disagree

OPEC nations will get used to this price and their economies will get used to it. Take away the extra money and their economies will see negative growth.

Drop in oil and they will have to cut back on production.

Looks like you were wrong on this one buddy.

Are you going to bump every single oil thread to brag?

Yes.
 

nerp

Diamond Member
Dec 31, 2005
9,865
105
106
Originally posted by: AccruedExpenditure
Originally posted by: Aimster
Originally posted by: AccruedExpenditure
By the end of 2010 gasoline will be back under 3 bucks a gallon
-AE

I disagree

OPEC nations will get used to this price and their economies will get used to it. Take away the extra money and their economies will see negative growth.

Drop in oil and they will have to cut back on production.

Looks like you were wrong on this one buddy.

Were you predicting the current economic scenario? Or did you just get lucky?

 

mrSHEiK124

Lifer
Mar 6, 2004
11,488
2
0
I was wondering what the deal was with threads that started off with financial figures from months ago, and start dates from equally long ago that I'd only notice after reading a few posts.

DIAF AE, we get it, you were right.