First of all, there is no evidence that Iran is even seeking nuclear weapons. But Israel and the USA have been saying for six years that an Iranian bomb is only two years away.
The same cast of characters, namely the USA, Israel, the EU also said Saddam Hussein had WMD in 2002. Absolutely no doubt about it.
In short, Iran is in a damned if it does and damned if it does not no win situation, even if it continues to work under IAEA guidelines.
Because Iran can't even sell its own oil on international markets. And that is the total corner Iran is being pushed into. Partly because, even if China and Russia don't think the sanctions are fair, its no skin off their butt, while getting along in the international community is in their interests.
Leaving Iran six months to prepare for sanctions too crippling for any nation to bear. And even if Iran makes a super human effort to prove its not going for nukes, Israel will continue to say Iran is lying.
Meanwhile any terrorist organization not affiliated with Iran may start sinking Persian Gulf Tankers. While letting Sunni Muslims who have little love of Iran, to kill two birds with one stone. Perhaps setting up another gulf war 2 scenario the USA and every military in the world can't handle. Because as we recall, when Saddam was rapidly conquered in just a week in 2003, the Iraqi populace helped themselves to Iraqi army military supplies. Which allowed the Iraqi people to maintain a guerrilla war that is still amply supplied nine years later.
In short, I personally believe, no matter what Leon Pinhead says to the contrary, a badly wounded Iran in anarchy could still shut down most of the Persian gulf for at least a half a decade. And most western oil dependent nations economies could not last out a month, without going into a severe depression. Nor do terrorist have to stop all oil tankers, sinking even 5% would be more than enough to do the damage.
In short, I think the world is playing a damn foolish game with Iran here, making the Persian gulf into total tinderbox, and all it will take is just one spark, to blow everything sky high.