Erica. Likely to hurricanerize continental U.S. somewhere.

[Jeeebus]

His profile is Fort Lauderdale.

Same basic area as you. Fort Lauderdale'ish.

 

[BxgJ]

I'll take it. We need the rain.

Near Houston here, we do need the rain but not in the form of a strong hurricane.

 

[GagHalfrunt]

Near Houston here, we do need the rain but not in the form of a strong hurricane.

Wasn't Houston almost completely underwater a few months ago?

It's been a while since New Orleans got hit, let's see if they learned anything from Katrina. I just hope it goes anywhere except the northeast, there are still parts of New Jersey that are not 100% recovered from Sandy.

 

[Oyeve]

It seems like forever since we had a hurricane, when was the last time...katrina?

We have water at least!

 

[BxgJ]

Wasn't Houston almost completely underwater a few months ago?

It's been a while since New Orleans got hit, let's see if they learned anything from Katrina. I just hope it goes anywhere except the northeast, there are still parts of New Jersey that are not 100% recovered from Sandy.

It's been very dry since then, so a sizable portion of the area is now in a drought again. :/

 

[preslove]

I'm not particularly concerned (at this point at least). Doesn't look like it will be a strong one if it does hit us. We've got plenty of water, batteries, etc. and several family members' houses in the near vicinity if it does get bad.

More hoping we get a calm night Friday. Fish usually feed nicely before a storm.

True. Is it even projected to become a hurricane?

Wasn't Houston almost completely underwater a few months ago?

It's been a while since New Orleans got hit, let's see if they learned anything from Katrina. I just hope it goes anywhere except the northeast, there are still parts of New Jersey that are not 100% recovered from Sandy.

Much of texas flash floods easily because the top layers of soil isn't porous enough to handle it, and there is shit drainage because it doesn't rain too much. Florida can handle a lot more rain.

 

[DrPizza]

Could you give source for the alternative models?

Most likely scenario is south florida, but it is too early to tell. We'll know a lot more in a day, and much more in two.

One of the better sources are the conversations on the accuweather forums.

 

[IronWing]

Might as well get it from the horse's mouth....

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Nothing... nothing... nothing... a wee bit... Oh, hey, Florida! <SMACK>

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
500 PM AST WED AUG 26 2015

The satellite presentation of the tropical storm has become less
organized since the previous advisory, with the low-level center
becoming exposed to the northwest of the thunderstorm activity.
A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Erika this afternoon
has not found flight-level or SFMR winds as strong as reported this
morning, but the aircraft did not sample much of the eastern portion
of the circulation. The initial intensity is held at 40 kt, but
this could be generous.

The intensity forecast philosophy has not changed since this
morning. Erika is forecast to move through an area of moderate to
strong westerly shear during the next two to three days. Although
the NHC intensity forecast during that time shows no change in
intensity, weakening is possible during the next couple of days. In
fact, Erika could degenerate into a trough of low pressure due to
the shear and interaction with the Greater Antilles. After 72
hours, the upper-level environment is forecast to become more
conducive for development and all of the guidance, including the
global models, shows intensification. Therefore, the days 4 and 5
intensity forecast again calls for strengthening, but is below the
intensity consensus and near the SHIPS model. The official forecast
leans toward the lower side of the guidance to reflect the
possibility that the cyclone's structure would be too disrupted to
fully take advantage of the more conducive environment late in the
period.

The initial motion remains 280/15 kt. Erika is forecast to move
west-northwestward during the next three to four days to the south
of a subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic. After that time,
the global models show a weakness in the ridge developing over the
far western Atlantic, which should cause Erika to turn
northwestward. All of the models have shifted eastward at days
four and five, but the normally reliable GFS and ECMWF define
the western edge of the guidance. Out of respect of
these models and the previous NHC forecast, the updated track
has only been moved slightly eastward late in the period. As a
result, the new forecast lies west of the multi-model consensus at
96 and 120 h. One should remember to not focus on the exact forecast
track, especially at the long range where the average NHC track
errors during the past 5 years are about 180 miles at day 4 and 240
miles at day 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 16.6N 58.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 17.1N 61.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 18.1N 64.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 19.2N 66.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 20.5N 69.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 29/1800Z 22.7N 74.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 30/1800Z 25.0N 77.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 31/1800Z 27.5N 80.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

 

[tynopik]

clear proof of global warming

 

[Rubycon]

One of the better sources are the conversations on the accuweather forums.

Or here:

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/46768-tropical-storm-erika/

 

[purbeast0]

Bonaire trumps Aruba as far as the A B C islands are concerned. In my humble opinion at least.

my southwest points ain't getting me to bonaire though.

 

[Jodell88]

my southwest points ain't getting me to bonaire though.

Have fun in the heat. It's hot as hell right now. Jesus Christ!

 

[purbeast0]

Have fun in the heat. It's hot as hell right now. Jesus Christ!

i hear it's because of the hurricane and it's made the tradewinds stop that are normally on the island.

i don't mind the heat at all when on vacation in tropical climates though. i'm on the beach and in the water 95% of the time there is sunlight out.

 

[Jodell88]

i hear it's because of the hurricane and it's made the tradewinds stop that are normally on the island.

i don't mind the heat at all when on vacation in tropical climates though. i'm on the beach and in the water 95% of the time there is sunlight out.

It's been hot since July at least. El Nino means less rain which means more heat. 🙁

 

[gamefreakgcb]

Cool article about Katrina affecting NASA's Michoud Facility:

http://arstechnica.com/science/2015/08/nasa-versus-nature-august-29-2005/

 

[purbeast0]

It's been hot since July at least. El Nino means less rain which means more heat. 🙁

you live in aruba? must be nice!

 

[runzwithsizorz]

Even Andrew spared Fort Lauderdale; just higher than normal winds and some blowing.

Be patient and prepared

So the winds were high outside, while you got a blow job?😕

 

[Jodell88]

you live in aruba? must be nice!

No, about 600 miles east in Trinidad and Tobago. 😀

 

[cabri]

So the winds were high outside, while you got a blow job?😕

Not even that; the wife had been sent out of state 🙁

 

[purbeast0]

No, about 600 miles east in Trinidad and Tobago. 😀

ah okay, well that's not quite the same thing. aruba in general always has a steady breeze on the island due to the tradewinds and it being pretty flat, and right now those winds have slowed down due to the hurricane. i thought THAT is what you were referring to.

 

[zinfamous]

so you're saying that next week is a bad time for me to be driving across the southwest, south, and up the east coast?

🙁

 

[IronWing]

so you're saying that next week is a bad time for me to be driving across the southwest, south, and up the east coast?

🙁

Maybe roadtrip to Hawaii instead.

 

[Jodell88]

Dominica is getting it

 

[Newell Steamer]

Thanks, Al Gore.

 

[cabri]

Dominica is getting it

Problems of living in Paradise - must learn to swim and fly a kite for 3 months a year