Eric Schmidt predicts developers will prioritize Android over iOS in 6 months

[QueBert]

I'm pretty sure this was explained to you a couple of times before but that's nothing more than EA being stupid.

It's not just an EA game, the other game isn't EA, and I've come across other games that won't work with my phone. Same with some non game apps. And who cares even if was EA? There's games on the market that won't run on a number of Android devices, that's plain and simple fragmentation. It's not like I have a funky Android'ish device like the Nook Color or Kindle Fire. I have a phone running stock ICS 4.0.4. The 2 games in question both run on my years old EVO 4G, but not the recently released Note, that's still not fragmentation though right?

 

[Puddle Jumper]

It's not just an EA game, the other game isn't EA, and I've come across other games that won't work with my phone. Same with some non game apps. And who cares even if was EA? There's games on the market that won't run on a number of Android devices, that's plain and simple fragmentation. It's not like I have a funky Android'ish device like the Nook Color or Kindle Fire. I have a phone running stock ICS 4.0.4. The 2 games in question both run on my years old EVO 4G, but not the recently released Note, that's still not fragmentation though right?

You don't understand fragmentation at all, an arbitrary restriction an ignorant developer decided to add to their product is not fragmentation.

There are some iOS apps that won't run on all iOS devices, I guess you think iOS is fragmented as well.

 

[JD50]

You guys have been crowing about fragmentation for at least 2 years now.

 

[Eug]

There are some iOS apps that won't run on all iOS devices, I guess you think iOS is fragmented as well.

Technically, indeed it is, but to a much, much lesser extent, and the fragmentation is in such a fashion that is simple for consumers to understand.

In iOS, if you have a 3G, you will understand that the latest and greatest app may not work with it. However, when new software is released you know it will run on current hardware, because there are only a couple of devices out there.

This is not the case with Android. If company X releases a new phone in 2012, with Android 4.0.3, and company Y releases a new phone in 2012 with similar but not identical hardware, the app may work on X's phone, but not Y's, even after an update.

How is that fragmentation?

The point is that it's not just a coding issue. It's also a marketing issue. With Amazon Marketplace and Google Play, they are completely independent from each other, meaning that the two markets are separate, even though they run the same underlying OS. Google can advertise that X million of Android devices were shipped by Amazon, but it can't advertise to developers that all of these devices are exposed to their apps when they submit them to Google Play.

 

[poofyhairguy]

 

[cheezy321]

More fragmentation evidence:
http://opensignalmaps.com/reports/fragmentation.php

 

[Eug]

More fragmentation evidence:
http://opensignalmaps.com/reports/fragmentation.php

I like this illustration, as it completely ignores the OS, yet still illustrates one form of fragmentation independent of the OS.

Android screen rez:

iPad + iPhone + iPad touch screen rez:

 

[Eug]

Ouch. I knew it was bad, but not that bad. So as of May, over 90% of Android devices are still on Gingerbread or earlier, with only 5% on ICS, and a bunch more on Honeycomb. That's just sad, considering that ICS came out in 2011.

 

[QueBert]

You don't understand fragmentation at all, an arbitrary restriction an ignorant developer decided to add to their product is not fragmentation.

There are some iOS apps that won't run on all iOS devices, I guess you think iOS is fragmented as well.

But I can go to the App Store and look up any app and it'll clearly say "requires iOS x.xx" which makes it easy to figure out if something will run or not. 99% of Android apps I can do no such thing, so it's a total crap shoot what will run with which phones. Also, typically an iOS app that doesn't work with a device will be because is because it's too old, which makes sense. A game that came out 4 months ago and has had 3 updates not working with one of the latest model Android devices makes almost zero sense to me.

I would also say the Play Store & Amazon Android store are fragmentation. Nothing like the Play store saying I have an update to an app, only to not let me update it because I bought it from Amazon. I wouldn't expect people like my mom to understand this.

 

[zerocool84]

Some apps on Google Play don't even exist on Amazon's store, and there's no way to install Google Play on the Fire unless you geek it out.

ie. The Android market is fragmented for several reasons.

A Kindle Fire is not advertised as having Android on it at all. Since you know that it has Android on it, you should know that you can only download stuff from the Amazon App Store for it. It's a totally separate thing now.

 

[hans007]

Please please point me to somewhere saying that article is bunk. I would love to see it. Who said they need to test on 400+ devices? I stated in the OP it was an extreme case, but it still is a real life situation at a real company. There's a lot more to be said for my sources than yours, which are at the moment nonexistent.

In order to stay competitive, there are hundreds of app developers out there that spend a LOT of their time QA'ing on many devices.

Here are more examples:
http://techcrunch.com/2012/06/02/android-qa-testing-quality-assurance/

Red Robot Labs: 12 android devices in house, use outside company to test on 35 more devices

Pocket Gems: 40 android devices in house

Storm8: 30 - 50 devices

I would like you to show me ONE, just ONE company out there that tests "on a couple popular devices." By a couple, you do mean 2 right? Show me a developer out there on android that is large and tests their apps on 2 devices or less.

I work at a company on the mobile HTML team. That said I work closely with our mobile app team. We test on like 4-5 android devices. Not really a huge problem but our app targeted at 2.2 and it really doesn't do anything crazy (search site for small to mid size local business)

 

[Eug]

A Kindle Fire is not advertised as having Android on it at all. Since you know that it has Android on it, you should know that you can only download stuff from the Amazon App Store for it. It's a totally separate thing now.

Lots of things we should know, but it's a heluvalot easier for the consumer to understand on the iOS side. BTW, if you look on Amazon's website, you'll see Fire owners asking if they can install Android apps.

I work at a company on the mobile HTML team. That said I work closely with our mobile app team. We test on like 4-5 android devices. Not really a huge problem but our app targeted at 2.2 and it really doesn't do anything crazy (search site for small to mid size local business)

In 2012? Makes sense for you guys, because 2.2 and 2.3 are where most of the products are, but it does illustrate the state of Android in general.

 

[kubani1]

This is why I've consistently and repeatedly debunked the 'fragmentation' myth. It simply doesn't exist in any practical sense.

The ICS 'fixes' the changelogs mention are pretty much that the dev compiled the app in the ICS API level and ran it on the emulator to make sure it didn't crash outright. And thats about it.

Also, anyone saying that a developer needs to test their app on 400+ devices is a complete idiot and should be dunked in a bucket of ice water. Its plain bunk. Smaller devs test on the emulator and their personal device. Larger dev houses will test on a couple popular devices. If they've suck to the standards, if it works on one device it'll work on 99% of them. If you think Blizzard tested Diablo 3 on every video card from AMD and Nvidia, you're living in a dream world. They developed along the DirectX API.

Bateluer, i hope this doesn't sound rude, but why do you think that apps come out for iOS before Android?

I will grant you, I have not really come across many problems with fragmentation on my htc desire s, but some people seem to have lots of problems with apps not working and not being compatible, and for whatever reason iOS apps often come out first, and unfortunately they often appear to be more polished on iOS, although android does allow apps to be more useful sometimes. i'm just curious why, the fragmentation argument sounds logical to me, but then again I'm just a tech user, I don't really understand the stuff.

 

[Puddle Jumper]

Technically, indeed it is, but to a much, much lesser extent, and the fragmentation is in such a fashion that is simple for consumers to understand.

In iOS, if you have a 3G, you will understand that the latest and greatest app may not work with it. However, when new software is released you know it will run on current hardware, because there are only a couple of devices out there.

This is not the case with Android. If company X releases a new phone in 2012, with Android 4.0.3, and company Y releases a new phone in 2012 with similar but not identical hardware, the app may work on X's phone, but not Y's, even after an update.


The point is that it's not just a coding issue. It's also a marketing issue. With Amazon Marketplace and Google Play, they are completely independent from each other, meaning that the two markets are separate, even though they run the same underlying OS. Google can advertise that X million of Android devices were shipped by Amazon, but it can't advertise to developers that all of these devices are exposed to their apps when they submit them to Google Play.

Google doesn't count the Fire as an Android device so they don't acknowledge it's existence at all when it comes to development.

iOS is the only successful operating system that is tied to a single source of applications. Just look at Windows, I can download apps from Steam, Origin, Direct2Drive, Games for Windows Live, Impulse, and a host of other services. All of those markets are separate even though they run on the same underlying OS.

If people are to stupid to understand the concept of being able to buy a product (app) from multiple stores they probably shouldn't be using a smartphone in the first place.

I like this illustration, as it completely ignores the OS, yet still illustrates one form of fragmentation independent of the OS.

Android screen rez:

iPad + iPhone + iPad touch screen rez:

One important thing that misses is Android provides the tools necessary to make resolution independent apps while iOS does not. Heck Apple is stuck using a odd aspect ratio on the iPhone because any changes to it would destroy backwards compatibility while Android manufactures are free to make advancements to their products without being restricted by hardware choices made back in 2007.

 

[Eug]

If people are to stupid to understand the concept of being able to buy a product (app) from multiple stores they probably shouldn't be using a smartphone in the first place.

This is precisely the attitude of some Linux engineers, with the regards to Linux-on-the-desktop. It seems that attitude just as strong as ever for Linux-on-the-smartphone.

One important thing that misses is Android provides the tools necessary to make resolution independent apps while iOS does not. Heck Apple is stuck using a odd aspect ratio on the iPhone because any changes to it would destroy backwards compatibility while Android manufactures are free to make advancements to their products without being restricted by hardware choices made back in 2007.

Apple isn't stuck with anything forever. They can change resolutions and pixel densities as they wish. However, the difference is that once they change it, they will tend to keep all their products in that matrix for a certain period of time to simplify development and user understanding.

I think it speaks volumes that Apple hasn't even needed to address that issue of resolution independence in iOS, as the OS is designed around the hardware and vice versa.

 

[Puddle Jumper]

This is precisely the attitude of some Linux engineers, with the regards to Linux-on-the-desktop. It seems that attitude just as strong as ever for Linux-on-the-smartphone.

How is the concept of multiple stores difficult? If I want a bag of Doritos I can get it from Walmart, Kroger, Speedway, 7-11,etc. Likewise if I want an app I can buy that from the Play Store or the Amazon App Store.

Besides the only people who have the Amazon App store on their phones went out of their way to download and install it. You can't get it from the Play Store and afaik no phones come with it installed.

 

[Eug]

How is the concept of multiple stores difficult? If I want a bag of Doritos I can get it from Walmart, Kroger, Speedway, 7-11,etc. Likewise if I want an app I can buy that from the Play Store or the Amazon App Store.

Besides the only people who have the Amazon App store on their phones went out of their way to download and install it. You can't get it from the Play Store and afaik no phones come with it installed.

The whole discussion was whether or not the market was fragmented or not, and it is.

So, let me summarize your recent arguments. You argue there are technical advantages in the SDK that partially addresses the issues associated with aspects of the fragmentation, but in addition argue that consumers who don't understand the fragmentation shouldn't be buying Android phones in the first place.

 

[Puddle Jumper]

The whole discussion was whether or not the market was fragmented or not, and it is.

So, let me summarize your recent arguments. You argue there are technical advantages in the SDK that partially addresses the issues associated with aspects of the fragmentation, but in addition argue that consumers who don't understand the fragmentation shouldn't be buying Android phones in the first place.

How is the Amazon App store relevant when the average consumer doesn't use it?

The consumer doesn't need to understand anything more on Android than they do on iOS. They get apps from Google Play and it only allows them to download apps that are compatible with their phone (with the exception of the EA idiocy mentioned above).

That said the way multiple app stores work should be immediately obvious to anyone who has ever purchased a product from a store at any point in their life.

 

[purbeast0]

i've said it before and i'll say it again.

i have 4 apps out on both platforms (Android and iOS) and 3 are pay.

i make roughly 5x more on iOS than I do Android. i've been developing apps for both since around mid-2010 and it hasn't changed one bit.

totally anecdotal but in my experience, much more $$ is to be made on iOS.

 

[Eug]

Your 5X is in the same ballpark as what Flurry says.

iOS apps make 4X as much as on Android

Flurry says that for every $1.00 a developer earns on iOS, he can expect to earn about $0.24 on Android.

My developer friends don't bother with Android at all actually. I suspect though it's because they target mostly tablets and by tablets I mean iPad, although they do do some smartphone apps as well. Ironically though for smartphones besides iOS, they support Blackberry, as their corporate clients still have a lot of Blackberry users... which are in the process of being replaced by iPhones in some departments.

 

[purbeast0]

Your 5X is in the same ballpark as what Flurry says.

iOS apps make 4X as much as on Android

Flurry says that for every $1.00 a developer earns on iOS, he can expect to earn about $0.24 on Android.

My developer friends don't bother with Android at all actually. I suspect though it's because they target mostly tablets and by tablets I mean iPad, although they do do some smartphone apps as well. Ironically though for smartphones besides iOS, they support Blackberry, as their corporate clients still have a lot of Blackberry users... which are in the process of being replaced by iPhones in some departments.

my first app i started on iOS and didn't plan on porting to Android in general since I didn't own an Android device.

then I started to get a buncha requests for it so I decided to learn how to do Android development. i don't have a physical android device so I only test it out on the emulators.

my other apps also all start out on iOS then I port to Android. they all use the same skeleton framework that i've evolved over the 4 apps since they are all the same type of application.

my last app took me literally 45 minutes to port to Android heh.

 

[Red Storm]

I have had no issues with fragmentation throughout my Android experience, and considering I change phones like I change clothes you'd think it would really affect me, but it hasn't. I know, shocking.

The only fragmentation I have experienced is a problem on both Android and iOS, and that is greedy developers releasing separate apps for phones and tablets. In my experience I have seen this much more on iOS than Android, which is even worse because iOS apps seem to be more expensive in general.

 

[Suspicious-Teach8788]

This is why I've consistently and repeatedly debunked the 'fragmentation' myth. It simply doesn't exist in any practical sense.

Denial. Tell me why CM9 development for the first 5 months focused on basic device compatibility. Only since May or so have they been putting in dozens of regular CM7 features. CM9 is way slower on coming out than CM7 was.

Furthermore, just ask developers why it takes so long for apps to roll out. They have to make it compatible for all devices. Also look at many app updates. Changelogs like "Fix for Droid Bionic" or whatever the hell like that is retarded. It's the US phones that usually need special fixes here and there because most people develop for standard devices like the SGS2 and don't care about Moto's dumb 858x480.

I don't think you've debunked crap honestly. To deny that there isn't fragmentation and that it doesn't affect app development is really shoving your head up your ass. Even the staunchest Android phanboi should recognize that.

 

[Suspicious-Teach8788]

Lots of things we should know, but it's a heluvalot easier for the consumer to understand on the iOS side. BTW, if you look on Amazon's website, you'll see Fire owners asking if they can install Android apps.


In 2012? Makes sense for you guys, because 2.2 and 2.3 are where most of the products are, but it does illustrate the state of Android in general.

2.2 is so 2010, but that's like saying we're actively developing for iOS3 I suppose....

 

[BoberFett]

Siri doesn't run on older iPhones! OMG FRAGMENTATION!!!