Eric Schmidt predicts developers will prioritize Android over iOS in 6 months

[cheezy321]

Looks like he was just a bit off with that prediction...

http://www.intomobile.com/2012/06/0...and-developers-still-prefer-ios-over-android/

“Ultimately, application vendors are driven by volume, and volume is favored by the open approach Google is taking,” Schmidt said at the LeWeb conference in December.”There are so many manufacturers working so hard to distribute Android phones globally that whether you like ICS or not–and again I like it a great deal–you will want to develop for that platform, and perhaps even first.” He later responded to a comment from an audience member about iOS apps beating Android apps to the market by saying, “my prediction is that six months from now you’ll say the opposite.”

Schmidt is turning into Paul Allen. When can we actually believe what he says? Android first apps are pretty much non-existent at this point. Those are the exact type of apps that Schmidt was predicting would happen by now.

Even worse: Google isn't even releasing products on android first!

Perhaps you’ve heard of Google+ — you most likely don’t use it, but you’ve at least heard of it, I assume. On May 9th, Google typed up a blog post announcing a beautiful redesign of the app. It’s seriously stunning. It called the update a “mobile app with sense and soul” and nobody questioned the relevancy of those characteristics for it. The app was released for the iPhone first.
Google, the maker of Android, released an app update for the iPhone before Android.
It wasn’t even a few days before, which might be forgivable. The Android version of the update wasn’t released in Google Play until May 24th. The App Store’s approval process that Google has harped on so much over the years obviously wasn’t a big obstacle at all if its own app made it through weeks before it landed on Android. Whatever the excuse may be for the app’s early release on iOS, it doesn’t boost the Google’s credibility.

Things have changed slightly. Android finally got instagram. Android finally got flipboard (but not really). At least developers are paying attention to the platform now.

ICS is still only on 7.1% of android devices out there. Could the massive OS fragmentation be a reason why developers feel daunted by Android? One company has to test their games on 400 devices! Insane. This might be an extreme case, but it just goes to show what some developers have to do to create a quality experience on android.

http://techcrunch.com/2012/05/11/this-is-what-developing-for-android-looks-like/

 

[Ns1]

stop lying, fragmentation doesn't exist. it only exists in your mind.

 

[Mopetar]

Who cares. CEOs (or whatever he is now) say stupid crap all the time. Why should Schmidt be any different?

 

[runawayprisoner]

The reason why ICS isn't on every device is because manufacturers are more interested in bringing new devices to the market, and less interested in updating the working software of an older device.

Why? Here's a hint: they don't gain anything (read: money) from updating the software of an older device.

And thus developers have to constantly test for more and more apps.

 

[cheezy321]

Who cares. CEOs (or whatever he is now) say stupid crap all the time. Why should Schmidt be any different?

True. Just saying he is turning into a blowhard like Paul Allen.

 

[DaveSimmons]

How about: no.

I'm happy with my Kindle Fire (and iPod) but I see no evidence of any kind of shift away from iOS app development.

Everything I read is that sales are much higher for iOS versions, and that development and support is much harder for Android due to fragmentation.

 

[annomander]

I have both a iPad 3 and a Galaxy Tab 8.

When buying apps I'm much more likely to buy the iPad version then the Android.
I will also make impulse buys on the iPad but won't on the Android.

To date I've only bought 1 Android app, I think basically a lot of it comes down to I don't really trust the platform enough to be free with my credit card.

 

[Ns1]

More importantly (for me)...

People give me iTunes gift cards ALL THE TIME. I buy apps cuz it's absolutely zero $$$ out of pocket. I have like $60 just sitting in iTunes cuz I got 4-5 gift cards during x-mas.

I haven't spent a single dollar on google apps...cuz nobody gave me a $20 google play card.

 

[BoberFett]

Nobody will ever create apps for Windows! Just look at the fragmentation!

 

[Dominato3r]

Nobody will ever create apps for Windows! Just look at the fragmentation!

This is what I was thinking. Is the Android OS fragmentation similar to Vista Vs Win7 where it's pretty easy to code for them both or WinXP Vs Win7 where there's a ton of structural differences?

 

[shortylickens]

Actually aside from games I've got fewer apps on Windows than I do on Android.
I only need a few things which are multi-purpose.
VLC for all my media aside from streaming.
Chrome for damn near everything since the world is so online-centric these days.
ACDSee for everything VLC can't do (pics and most of my file compression/decompressing).
Office but I really only use Word on a daily basis during the school year. I got some math apps but since the teacher sets up the class to do everything with my TI-83 I dont really need them.
Foxit which I use less and less as time goes by since people are finally starting to turn away from PDF's, also because so much documentation is now web based.
Weather I get from the web or a widget, which is now integrated into Windows.
Yup, if not for games I could probably get by with a simple little Chrome book.


Now my Atrix 2 on the other hand, I need about half a dozen apps just for basic information like email, news, weather, forums, and everything else. Anything advanced like playing media usually requires several apps cuz they all do things differently. One for local music, one for local videos, a couple each for streaming music and vids, etc. Of course Android also has widgets but you need more of them cuz again, some are better than others for certain things.

 

[Eug]

The reason why ICS isn't on every device is because manufacturers are more interested in bringing new devices to the market, and less interested in updating the working software of an older device.

Why? Here's a hint: they don't gain anything (read: money) from updating the software of an older device.

And thus developers have to constantly test for more and more apps.

I think this is a big problem. It's also a big problem with Windows Phone, with people saying that phones released in 2011 won't be able to run Windows Phone 8.

Similarly, if my carrier / manufacturer told me my 2011 Android phone wouldn't be support for ICS, I'd be pissed.

I used to complain about Apple dropping support for older iPhones too soon, but the ironic part is their OS support for older hardware is actually better than on the Android side, which is the opposite of Windows or Linux for the desktop.

 

[Nothinman]

This is what I was thinking. Is the Android OS fragmentation similar to Vista Vs Win7 where it's pretty easy to code for them both or WinXP Vs Win7 where there's a ton of structural differences?

As a user, it seems like the former to me. When I got my GNexus with ICS every app I had on my Incredible with Gingerbread ran just fine. I've seen some updates mention ICS fixes but I don't think I've ever run into the issues they fixed. Updates that either fix issues or provide different layouts for larger devices like tablets running Honeycomb or ICS seem more prominent to me.

 

[Eug]

Another problem is that there are a bazillion Android devices out there that don't even have access to Google Play. Hell, Google Play isn't even compatible with the Kindle Fire, and over a $1 billion worth of Fires have been sold. In fact, it's the 3rd most popular Android tablet in existence, and the #1 7" tablet in the world.

 

[Bateluer]

As a user, it seems like the former to me. When I got my GNexus with ICS every app I had on my Incredible with Gingerbread ran just fine. I've seen some updates mention ICS fixes but I don't think I've ever run into the issues they fixed. Updates that either fix issues or provide different layouts for larger devices like tablets running Honeycomb or ICS seem more prominent to me.

This is why I've consistently and repeatedly debunked the 'fragmentation' myth. It simply doesn't exist in any practical sense.

The ICS 'fixes' the changelogs mention are pretty much that the dev compiled the app in the ICS API level and ran it on the emulator to make sure it didn't crash outright. And thats about it.

Also, anyone saying that a developer needs to test their app on 400+ devices is a complete idiot and should be dunked in a bucket of ice water. Its plain bunk. Smaller devs test on the emulator and their personal device. Larger dev houses will test on a couple popular devices. If they've suck to the standards, if it works on one device it'll work on 99% of them. If you think Blizzard tested Diablo 3 on every video card from AMD and Nvidia, you're living in a dream world. They developed along the DirectX API.

 

[Ravynmagi]

This from the same man who said that by the summer of 2012 the majority of TVs sold would have Google TV inside.

http://www.theverge.com/2011/12/7/2618225/eric-schmidt-le-web-paris-google-tv-majority-all-tvs

I appreciate optimism, but it should be slightly rooted in reality.

 

[Eug]

This is why I've consistently and repeatedly debunked the 'fragmentation' myth. It simply doesn't exist in any practical sense.

Kindle Fire.

 

[Bateluer]

Kindle Fire.

What about it? Have you encountered any apps from Amazon's AppStore that don't work? Its a standard OMAP4, with a standard 1024x600 resolution, with a common quantity of RAM(512M). Aside from Amazon usually ripping off developers with the FAotD program, there hasn't been any credible cases of problems with apps downloaded from Amazon's store.

Rooted devices and custom roms do not count in the myth of fragmentation. If you desire to root&rom, then you should be technical enough and prepared to deal any issues that pop up.

 

[Eug]

Some apps on Google Play don't even exist on Amazon's store, and there's no way to install Google Play on the Fire unless you geek it out.

ie. The Android market is fragmented for several reasons.

 

[oznerol]

Android can't be the lead platform for development quite yet. It's just too expensive (which is counter-intuitive since Eclipse and the Android SDK are free, and the developer registration costs to sell on the marketplace is cheaper).

The current model for most developers (indie, at least), is to focus on a polished iOS product, then port (or pay someone to port). There's a bunch of companies out there who exist solely to port iOS applications to other platforms. And at the end of the day, it will cost a lot less and take less time to pay someone else to do it rather than do it in-house.

 

[cheezy321]

This is why I've consistently and repeatedly debunked the 'fragmentation' myth. It simply doesn't exist in any practical sense.

The ICS 'fixes' the changelogs mention are pretty much that the dev compiled the app in the ICS API level and ran it on the emulator to make sure it didn't crash outright. And thats about it.

Also, anyone saying that a developer needs to test their app on 400+ devices is a complete idiot and should be dunked in a bucket of ice water. Its plain bunk. Smaller devs test on the emulator and their personal device. Larger dev houses will test on a couple popular devices. If they've suck to the standards, if it works on one device it'll work on 99% of them. If you think Blizzard tested Diablo 3 on every video card from AMD and Nvidia, you're living in a dream world. They developed along the DirectX API.

Please please point me to somewhere saying that article is bunk. I would love to see it. Who said they need to test on 400+ devices? I stated in the OP it was an extreme case, but it still is a real life situation at a real company. There's a lot more to be said for my sources than yours, which are at the moment nonexistent.

In order to stay competitive, there are hundreds of app developers out there that spend a LOT of their time QA'ing on many devices.

Here are more examples:
http://techcrunch.com/2012/06/02/android-qa-testing-quality-assurance/

Red Robot Labs: 12 android devices in house, use outside company to test on 35 more devices

Pocket Gems: 40 android devices in house

Storm8: 30 - 50 devices

I would like you to show me ONE, just ONE company out there that tests "on a couple popular devices." By a couple, you do mean 2 right? Show me a developer out there on android that is large and tests their apps on 2 devices or less.

 

[Puddle Jumper]

Some apps on Google Play don't even exist on Amazon's store, and there's no way to install Google Play on the Fire unless you geek it out.

ie. The Android market is fragmented for several reasons.

How is that fragmentation?

 

[QueBert]

When I bought my One X last month I bought 3 new games, none are uber 3d titles, they're just regular games. I traded my phone for a Galaxy Note. 2 of the 3 aren't compatible with my phone new phone. The XDA community suggests for this that I 1. root my phone and 2. edit the build.prop to trick the market into thinking I have a different phone than I actually do. I laugh when people say fragmentation on Android doesn't exist.

 

[Puddle Jumper]

When I bought my One X last month I bought 3 new games, none are uber 3d titles, they're just regular games. I traded my phone for a Galaxy Note. 2 of the 3 aren't compatible with my phone new phone. The XDA community suggests for this that I 1. root my phone and 2. edit the build.prop to trick the market into thinking I have a different phone than I actually do. I laugh when people say fragmentation on Android doesn't exist.

I'm pretty sure this was explained to you a couple of times before but that's nothing more than EA being stupid.

 

[Ns1]

This is why I've consistently and repeatedly debunked the 'fragmentation' myth. It simply doesn't exist in any practical sense.