LegendKiller
Lifer
Originally posted by: zephyrprime
Ok, this news just in:
Saudis Cite Market Forces
For Lower Crude Output
Kingdom Denies Any Effort
To Curb Global Oil Supply;
Stores Are Near Capacity
By BHUSHAN BAHREE
June 5, 2006; Page A3
CARACAS, Venezuela -- Saudi Arabia's oil minister confirmed that his country's massive crude-oil output has declined in recent months, but he attributed the trend to a drop in demand and denied the kingdom is aiming to limit supply.
In an interview after a meeting here of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Ali Naimi said other cartel members are having trouble finding buyers for all the crude they are producing, at a time when global stores are near full and many refiners have closed facilities for routine maintenance. One Saudi official said an estimated three million barrels a day of refining capacity is out of action and unable to process crude, at a time when the world is using some 84 million barrels a day of oil products like gasoline and jet fuel.
I'd post it all but I guess there would be some copyright violations if I did that. From this is sounds like there is no shortage of oil on the world stage at all and yet oil prices remain high. Is this evidence of some sort of price fixing or collusion?
Sigh....
There is no shortage of oil at a certain price point! If there was an unlimited supply of oil it would be *CHEAP* because people would pay less to buy something more plentiful. However, since there is a certain amount of oil released on the market, then many hands grab for the same amount. People overbid others, raising the price.
Supply and demand are not absolute functions. Price lowers with the supply and while the market it "well" supplied, it is well supplied at the $70 price level. It would be even moer "well supplied" at the $50 or $40 price level. But then again, it wouldn't be well enough supplied compared to a $10 price level.
Furthermore, risk has to be baked into oil. The spot markets are also set predicated upon oil being plentiful in the future or forecasts to the contrary. If people think oil will go up in price tomorrow, then why would they sell for a lesser amount today only to be screwed tomorrow? Thus, a lot of risk is baked into the price of oil. Add into that the futures market and price-feedback loops and every event being baked into spot and futures market, and you get a price that doesn't match the fundamentals of the intrinsic value of the underlying asset.
Take for example Gold. Why the hell is gold that expensive right now? Gold is plentiful, gold is well supplied, gold has drastically outstripped inflation. Yet you have to include other factors, such as more people trying to buy gold to get a "safer" asset in the future. Then, of course, you bake in the riskiness inherent in holding gold, whether it goes up or down. Thus, you get a well supplied, yet fundamentally "wrong" market.
There is no price fixing, gouging, or anything else.