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Energy Economics 101

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Originally posted by: zephyrprime
Ok, this news just in:

Saudis Cite Market Forces
For Lower Crude Output
Kingdom Denies Any Effort
To Curb Global Oil Supply;
Stores Are Near Capacity
By BHUSHAN BAHREE
June 5, 2006; Page A3

CARACAS, Venezuela -- Saudi Arabia's oil minister confirmed that his country's massive crude-oil output has declined in recent months, but he attributed the trend to a drop in demand and denied the kingdom is aiming to limit supply.

In an interview after a meeting here of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Ali Naimi said other cartel members are having trouble finding buyers for all the crude they are producing, at a time when global stores are near full and many refiners have closed facilities for routine maintenance. One Saudi official said an estimated three million barrels a day of refining capacity is out of action and unable to process crude, at a time when the world is using some 84 million barrels a day of oil products like gasoline and jet fuel.

I'd post it all but I guess there would be some copyright violations if I did that. From this is sounds like there is no shortage of oil on the world stage at all and yet oil prices remain high. Is this evidence of some sort of price fixing or collusion?


Sigh....


There is no shortage of oil at a certain price point! If there was an unlimited supply of oil it would be *CHEAP* because people would pay less to buy something more plentiful. However, since there is a certain amount of oil released on the market, then many hands grab for the same amount. People overbid others, raising the price.

Supply and demand are not absolute functions. Price lowers with the supply and while the market it "well" supplied, it is well supplied at the $70 price level. It would be even moer "well supplied" at the $50 or $40 price level. But then again, it wouldn't be well enough supplied compared to a $10 price level.

Furthermore, risk has to be baked into oil. The spot markets are also set predicated upon oil being plentiful in the future or forecasts to the contrary. If people think oil will go up in price tomorrow, then why would they sell for a lesser amount today only to be screwed tomorrow? Thus, a lot of risk is baked into the price of oil. Add into that the futures market and price-feedback loops and every event being baked into spot and futures market, and you get a price that doesn't match the fundamentals of the intrinsic value of the underlying asset.


Take for example Gold. Why the hell is gold that expensive right now? Gold is plentiful, gold is well supplied, gold has drastically outstripped inflation. Yet you have to include other factors, such as more people trying to buy gold to get a "safer" asset in the future. Then, of course, you bake in the riskiness inherent in holding gold, whether it goes up or down. Thus, you get a well supplied, yet fundamentally "wrong" market.

There is no price fixing, gouging, or anything else.

 
Originally posted by: zephyrprime
Ok, this news just in:

Saudis Cite Market Forces
For Lower Crude Output
Kingdom Denies Any Effort
To Curb Global Oil Supply;
Stores Are Near Capacity
By BHUSHAN BAHREE
June 5, 2006; Page A3

CARACAS, Venezuela -- Saudi Arabia's oil minister confirmed that his country's massive crude-oil output has declined in recent months, but he attributed the trend to a drop in demand and denied the kingdom is aiming to limit supply.

In an interview after a meeting here of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Ali Naimi said other cartel members are having trouble finding buyers for all the crude they are producing, at a time when global stores are near full and many refiners have closed facilities for routine maintenance. One Saudi official said an estimated three million barrels a day of refining capacity is out of action and unable to process crude, at a time when the world is using some 84 million barrels a day of oil products like gasoline and jet fuel.

I'd post it all but I guess there would be some copyright violations if I did that. From this is sounds like there is no shortage of oil on the world stage at all and yet oil prices remain high. Is this evidence of some sort of price fixing or collusion?

Right, there is no "supply" problem, as we've seen oil-producing nations stockpiling crude. Rather, it's a problem with refining capability. We simply can't make gas quickly enough. And of course, there is zero motivation for the big oil companies to solve that particular bottleneck. In fact, there's motivation not to.
 
Let's go through this logically:

1.) Oil companies are making record profits.

2.) Some possible explanations are:
- They are still making the same profit on a gallon of gas, however they're now selling a much higher volume of gas.
- They purchased and stockpiled crude at a lower price and this cheaper crude entered a supply chain where the price of the final product (gas) has rapidly increased.

3.) What about the fact that many oil companies own the entire supply chain? They do R&D, locate new sources of oil, extract that crude, ship it, refine it and deliver it to their own gas stations.

- These companies are not buying crude on the open market, rather they acquire it for the cost of extraction. Which in some cases is extremely cheap. For example oil fields recently opened in Libya have extraction costs as low as $1/barrel.
- Even after adding the inherent costs in the supply chain, refining, transport, etc. they're still not paying market prices.
 
of course not, they're in it for profit...

however, it's not the oil companies that control the price, it's OPEC. do a little research on the oil reserves of exxon vs. saudi arabia, iran, venezuela, and russia.
 
Originally posted by: da loser
of course not, they're in it for profit...

however, it's not the oil companies that control the price, it's OPEC. do a little research on the oil reserves of exxon vs. saudi arabia, iran, venezuela, and russia.

LOL, you've owned yourself. OPEC doesn't set the price, the open market does. Trading is rampant with speculation right now and with a fvcked up middle east (a big part of which we caused), it will remain. Even with the OPEC ministers admitting that they can't sell all of their oil, the price hasn't fallen one bit.

Oh, and on the supply/demand issue...why did my gas in Lexington, KY rise from 2.53 to 2.95 today? I guess the supply dropped quickly and was worth $0.41 extra. I'm sure the gasoline stations are making little or no EXTRA profit on the gas already in the tanks. Sure thing to all of you supply/demand BS worshippers.
 
Originally posted by: Engineer
Originally posted by: da loser
of course not, they're in it for profit...

however, it's not the oil companies that control the price, it's OPEC. do a little research on the oil reserves of exxon vs. saudi arabia, iran, venezuela, and russia.

LOL, you've owned yourself. OPEC doesn't set the price, the open market does. Trading is rampant with speculation right now and with a fvcked up middle east (a big part of which we caused), it will remain. Even with the OPEC ministers admitting that they can't sell all of their oil, the price hasn't fallen one bit.

Oh, and on the supply/demand issue...why did my gas in Lexington, KY rise from 2.53 to 2.95 today?

I guess the supply dropped quickly and was worth $0.41 extra. I'm sure the gasoline stations are making little or no EXTRA profit on the gas already in the tanks. Sure thing to all of you supply/demand BS worshippers.

Here is the reason it went up so much today.

Gas Refinery Exec said "There is no way to allow every individual American to fill up their gas tank"

So with Oil Inventories at 8 yr highs and record billions in profits the U.S. continues to reward an incompetent industry
 
Originally posted by: Engineer
Originally posted by: da loser
of course not, they're in it for profit...

however, it's not the oil companies that control the price, it's OPEC. do a little research on the oil reserves of exxon vs. saudi arabia, iran, venezuela, and russia.

LOL, you've owned yourself. OPEC doesn't set the price, the open market does. Trading is rampant with speculation right now and with a fvcked up middle east (a big part of which we caused), it will remain. Even with the OPEC ministers admitting that they can't sell all of their oil, the price hasn't fallen one bit.

Oh, and on the supply/demand issue...why did my gas in Lexington, KY rise from 2.53 to 2.95 today? I guess the supply dropped quickly and was worth $0.41 extra. I'm sure the gasoline stations are making little or no EXTRA profit on the gas already in the tanks. Sure thing to all of you supply/demand BS worshippers.


It's not just supply and demand. There is also risk and other financial fundamentals priced in. That isn't something Dave the Fearmongerer could understand though.
 
Originally posted by: LegendKiller
It's not just supply and demand. There is also risk and other financial fundamentals priced in. That isn't something Dave the Fearmongerer could understand though.
Perhaps you should explain it in layman's terms and leave out the wonky economic theory. The thread title is Energy Economics 101. And for the record, you trot out a lot of ambiguous stuff and then point to it. For instance you mention "risk and other financial fundamentals" ... care to elaborate?
 
If I hadn't already had too much wine, I would.

Lets just say that risk factors and fundamental expectations can wildley vary priced beyond their intrinsic values. Irrational exuberance has done this in the past. I will go into more de4tail tomorrow.
 
I'm going to float a possible explanation for record oil company profits, see what you think:

The big oil companies like Exxon/Mobil rode the increasing per barrel price upwards since Bush took office. The trick is to immediately correct gas at the station for current market/spot prices. Meanwhile you have millions of barrels in the supply chain at lower $/barrel.

Companies like Exxon/Mobil are able to extract crude at prices far less than the market price. They obviously make massive profit here as they ride the surging prices in crude.

Plus, by owning the refineries (that's where a large portion of the profit is) and also owning the consumer/retail outlets (gas stations) these same companies receive the profit inherent in both those businesses. Gas stations typically make $0.05 - $0.10/gallon profit. Refineries typically earn more per gallon.

In short, they profit at every step along the supply chain, from extraction to the gas pumps. And, they adjust retail prices immediately to market prices, despite having millions of barrels riding the supply chain somewhere at a previous/lower cost per barrel.

It's crazy profitable.
 
Originally posted by: dmcowen674
Originally posted by: Engineer
Originally posted by: da loser
of course not, they're in it for profit...

however, it's not the oil companies that control the price, it's OPEC. do a little research on the oil reserves of exxon vs. saudi arabia, iran, venezuela, and russia.

LOL, you've owned yourself. OPEC doesn't set the price, the open market does. Trading is rampant with speculation right now and with a fvcked up middle east (a big part of which we caused), it will remain. Even with the OPEC ministers admitting that they can't sell all of their oil, the price hasn't fallen one bit.

Oh, and on the supply/demand issue...why did my gas in Lexington, KY rise from 2.53 to 2.95 today?

I guess the supply dropped quickly and was worth $0.41 extra. I'm sure the gasoline stations are making little or no EXTRA profit on the gas already in the tanks. Sure thing to all of you supply/demand BS worshippers.

Here is the reason it went up so much today.

Gas Refinery Exec said "There is no way to allow every individual American to fill up their gas tank"

So with Oil Inventories at 8 yr highs and record billions in profits the U.S. continues to reward an incompetent industry

Originally posted by: LegendKiller
Originally posted by: Engineer
Originally posted by: da loser
of course not, they're in it for profit...

however, it's not the oil companies that control the price, it's OPEC. do a little research on the oil reserves of exxon vs. saudi arabia, iran, venezuela, and russia.

LOL, you've owned yourself. OPEC doesn't set the price, the open market does. Trading is rampant with speculation right now and with a fvcked up middle east (a big part of which we caused), it will remain. Even with the OPEC ministers admitting that they can't sell all of their oil, the price hasn't fallen one bit.

Oh, and on the supply/demand issue...why did my gas in Lexington, KY rise from 2.53 to 2.95 today? I guess the supply dropped quickly and was worth $0.41 extra. I'm sure the gasoline stations are making little or no EXTRA profit on the gas already in the tanks. Sure thing to all of you supply/demand BS worshippers.

It's not just supply and demand. There is also risk and other financial fundamentals priced in. That isn't something Dave the Fearmongerer could understand though.

Explain the Industry Exec saying there is no way your Oil Barons can fill every tank with all the billions in record profits and Oil at 8 yr highs.
 
Originally posted by: dmcowen674
Originally posted by: dmcowen674
Originally posted by: Engineer
Originally posted by: da loser
of course not, they're in it for profit...

however, it's not the oil companies that control the price, it's OPEC. do a little research on the oil reserves of exxon vs. saudi arabia, iran, venezuela, and russia.

LOL, you've owned yourself. OPEC doesn't set the price, the open market does. Trading is rampant with speculation right now and with a fvcked up middle east (a big part of which we caused), it will remain. Even with the OPEC ministers admitting that they can't sell all of their oil, the price hasn't fallen one bit.

Oh, and on the supply/demand issue...why did my gas in Lexington, KY rise from 2.53 to 2.95 today?

I guess the supply dropped quickly and was worth $0.41 extra. I'm sure the gasoline stations are making little or no EXTRA profit on the gas already in the tanks. Sure thing to all of you supply/demand BS worshippers.

Here is the reason it went up so much today.

Gas Refinery Exec said "There is no way to allow every individual American to fill up their gas tank"

So with Oil Inventories at 8 yr highs and record billions in profits the U.S. continues to reward an incompetent industry

Originally posted by: LegendKiller
Originally posted by: Engineer
Originally posted by: da loser
of course not, they're in it for profit...

however, it's not the oil companies that control the price, it's OPEC. do a little research on the oil reserves of exxon vs. saudi arabia, iran, venezuela, and russia.

LOL, you've owned yourself. OPEC doesn't set the price, the open market does. Trading is rampant with speculation right now and with a fvcked up middle east (a big part of which we caused), it will remain. Even with the OPEC ministers admitting that they can't sell all of their oil, the price hasn't fallen one bit.

Oh, and on the supply/demand issue...why did my gas in Lexington, KY rise from 2.53 to 2.95 today? I guess the supply dropped quickly and was worth $0.41 extra. I'm sure the gasoline stations are making little or no EXTRA profit on the gas already in the tanks. Sure thing to all of you supply/demand BS worshippers.

It's not just supply and demand. There is also risk and other financial fundamentals priced in. That isn't something Dave the Fearmongerer could understand though.

Explain the Industry Exec saying there is no way your Oil Barons can fill every tank with all the billions in record profits and Oil at 8 yr highs.

Link to quote?

 
Originally posted by: DealMonkey
I'm going to float a possible explanation for record oil company profits, see what you think:

The big oil companies like Exxon/Mobil rode the increasing per barrel price upwards since Bush took office. The trick is to immediately correct gas at the station for current market/spot prices. Meanwhile you have millions of barrels in the supply chain at lower $/barrel.

Companies like Exxon/Mobil are able to extract crude at prices far less than the market price. They obviously make massive profit here as they ride the surging prices in crude.

Plus, by owning the refineries (that's where a large portion of the profit is) and also owning the consumer/retail outlets (gas stations) these same companies receive the profit inherent in both those businesses. Gas stations typically make $0.05 - $0.10/gallon profit. Refineries typically earn more per gallon.

In short, they profit at every step along the supply chain, from extraction to the gas pumps. And, they adjust retail prices immediately to market prices, despite having millions of barrels riding the supply chain somewhere at a previous/lower cost per barrel.

It's crazy profitable.


Yeah, 10% is "crazy profitable"....any company making more than 10% is just screwing the hell out of consumers. Ban them all, turn them into state-owned companies, because they are obviously crooks, price fixers, and corrupt people bent on subverting their consumers.
 
Originally posted by: LegendKiller
Originally posted by: DealMonkey
I'm going to float a possible explanation for record oil company profits, see what you think:

The big oil companies like Exxon/Mobil rode the increasing per barrel price upwards since Bush took office. The trick is to immediately correct gas at the station for current market/spot prices. Meanwhile you have millions of barrels in the supply chain at lower $/barrel.

Companies like Exxon/Mobil are able to extract crude at prices far less than the market price. They obviously make massive profit here as they ride the surging prices in crude.

Plus, by owning the refineries (that's where a large portion of the profit is) and also owning the consumer/retail outlets (gas stations) these same companies receive the profit inherent in both those businesses. Gas stations typically make $0.05 - $0.10/gallon profit. Refineries typically earn more per gallon.

In short, they profit at every step along the supply chain, from extraction to the gas pumps. And, they adjust retail prices immediately to market prices, despite having millions of barrels riding the supply chain somewhere at a previous/lower cost per barrel.

It's crazy profitable.


Yeah, 10% is "crazy profitable"....any company making more than 10% is just screwing the hell out of consumers. Ban them all, turn them into state-owned companies, because they are obviously crooks, price fixers, and corrupt people bent on subverting their consumers.
Um, are you still drunk or just retarded? When did I say any of that? I didn't, so save your spittle-spewing rant for someone else. :roll:
 
Originally posted by: LegendKiller
Originally posted by: dmcowen674
Originally posted by: dmcowen674
Originally posted by: Engineer
Originally posted by: da loser
of course not, they're in it for profit...

however, it's not the oil companies that control the price, it's OPEC. do a little research on the oil reserves of exxon vs. saudi arabia, iran, venezuela, and russia.

LOL, you've owned yourself. OPEC doesn't set the price, the open market does. Trading is rampant with speculation right now and with a fvcked up middle east (a big part of which we caused), it will remain. Even with the OPEC ministers admitting that they can't sell all of their oil, the price hasn't fallen one bit.

Oh, and on the supply/demand issue...why did my gas in Lexington, KY rise from 2.53 to 2.95 today?

I guess the supply dropped quickly and was worth $0.41 extra. I'm sure the gasoline stations are making little or no EXTRA profit on the gas already in the tanks. Sure thing to all of you supply/demand BS worshippers.

Here is the reason it went up so much today.

Gas Refinery Exec said "There is no way to allow every individual American to fill up their gas tank"

So with Oil Inventories at 8 yr highs and record billions in profits the U.S. continues to reward an incompetent industry

Originally posted by: LegendKiller
Originally posted by: Engineer
Originally posted by: da loser
of course not, they're in it for profit...

however, it's not the oil companies that control the price, it's OPEC. do a little research on the oil reserves of exxon vs. saudi arabia, iran, venezuela, and russia.

LOL, you've owned yourself. OPEC doesn't set the price, the open market does. Trading is rampant with speculation right now and with a fvcked up middle east (a big part of which we caused), it will remain. Even with the OPEC ministers admitting that they can't sell all of their oil, the price hasn't fallen one bit.

Oh, and on the supply/demand issue...why did my gas in Lexington, KY rise from 2.53 to 2.95 today? I guess the supply dropped quickly and was worth $0.41 extra. I'm sure the gasoline stations are making little or no EXTRA profit on the gas already in the tanks. Sure thing to all of you supply/demand BS worshippers.

It's not just supply and demand. There is also risk and other financial fundamentals priced in. That isn't something Dave the Fearmongerer could understand though.

Explain the Industry Exec saying there is no way your Oil Barons can fill every tank with all the billions in record profits and Oil at 8 yr highs.

Link to quote?
It's in my Gas thread. Here it is again:

?There is no way that the distribution system can be full enough to allow every individual American to fill up their gas tank,? said Cavaney

He is president and chief executive of the American Petroleum Institute, the industry?s trade group.

You people are worshipping and rewarding an admitted incompetent Industry.
 
Originally posted by: DealMonkey
Um, are you still drunk or just retarded? When did I say any of that? I didn't, so save your spittle-spewing rant for someone else. :roll:


You are implying they are reaping profits in excess of what they have made at any other point in history, which is categorically incorrect. as with any industry there are more profitable times and there are less.
 
Originally posted by: dmcowen674
It's in my Gas thread. Here it is again:

?There is no way that the distribution system can be full enough to allow every individual American to fill up their gas tank,? said Cavaney

He is president and chief executive of the American Petroleum Institute, the industry?s trade group.

You people are worshipping and rewarding an admitted incompetent Industry.

How is that indicative of anything?

So, since the power grid can't handle 100% load of every electrical device in the country running 100%, it completely sucks and points to corruption?

Or, since roads can't possibly handle every car being on the roads at the same time, they automatically suck?

How about since a sewage system can't take the flushing of every toilette and a torrential downpour (god's gotta take a leak too), then it's just crap!

I suppose every computer on the internet using peak bandwidth would bring down the internet, so that is a sign that the internet sucks!


Wow dave, your ability to extrapolate peak use and apply it to incompetence is obviously the pinnacle of logical thought! How about this, lets just plan so that everything is set to the *WORST CASE SCENARIO* 100% of the time.

Then, we could have 10-lane freeways even through residential roads, we could have sewer systems servicing rural areas that are 30' in diameter. We could have every computer, even your grandmothers, connected to a 1Gb/s line, which she would *HAVE* to pay $2000/mo for.

Lets build 30x as many power plants so that we can supply every electrical device in the world with power 100% of the time.


Geez, I guess you are pretty short on statistical knowledge and trend/peak tracking. It's not surprising you would extrapolate this crap into your fear mongering portfolio. The only thing that makes you marginally better than somebody like Steeple is that at least you use some type of background to your stupdily illogical thought patterns.

 
Originally posted by: LegendKiller
Originally posted by: DealMonkey
Um, are you still drunk or just retarded? When did I say any of that? I didn't, so save your spittle-spewing rant for someone else. :roll:


You are implying they are reaping profits in excess of what they have made at any other point in history, which is categorically incorrect. as with any industry there are more profitable times and there are less.

Have you already fogotten just a couple of months ago when Exxon-Mobil posted the single largest quarterly corporate profit EVER in US history??
 
Originally posted by: ahurtt
Originally posted by: LegendKiller
Originally posted by: DealMonkey
Um, are you still drunk or just retarded? When did I say any of that? I didn't, so save your spittle-spewing rant for someone else. :roll:


You are implying they are reaping profits in excess of what they have made at any other point in history, which is categorically incorrect. as with any industry there are more profitable times and there are less.

Have you already fogotten just a couple of months ago when Exxon-Mobil posted the single largest quarterly corporate profit EVER in US history??

He's referring to profit margins, not "pure profit total". Seems the big oil profit margins have doubled since the late 90's or so.

 
Originally posted by: Engineer

He's referring to profit margins, not "pure profit total". Seems the big oil profit margins have doubled since the late 90's or so.

Indeed, it is the margins I am speaking off.

What are some of the things that have happened in recent history that would modify prices?

1. Extensive use of financial contracts to hedge price increase risk
2. Greater use of accounting trickery to extend profits (LIFO/FIFO) inventory costing (they are producing less, eating into "cheaper" stockples (liquidating lifo layers) which results in cheaper costs and more expensive production = more profit)
3. Larger companies with leaner structures, greater economies of scale and scope
4. Fact that it doesn't take more overhead to sell a $35 compared to a $70 barrel, fixed costs are spread over larger volume, reducing overall costs per unit, increasing profitability as scaling continues
5. Better distribution chains. Less days of inventory in the pipeline


Lets say we take 2 extremely large oil companies. Both have revenues of $100m and profits of $10m, 10% profit. Then, lets say they merge (Exxon Mobile anybody?). When they merge, they eliminate all of the crap, such as overhead. So, lets say then revenue increases, so less crap is spread among more volume.

So now, we have a company that instead of making 200/20 seperate makes 300/40. Is it that all that hard to imagine? 50% hike in profit due to oil costs going up 50% (corresponding profit from output hikes), combiend with another 50% in savings (20+10+10 = 40).

Nah, 2 commodity based companies could never reduce their overhead like that! Furthermore, overhead scales 1:1 with input - > output costs! Yeah, it takes more refineries to refine a $70 barrel than it did a $35 barrel! Yeah!

Then, lets add the fact that distillate mixes have changed. Since distillate production is a 0-sum game, if you give to one distillate you take from another. So say, we need more heavy heating oil, we throttle gas, which drops supply with demand (because of SUV's) still high.

Nah, that can *NEVER* happen. It'd just be way too logical!

 
I heard somewhere that trading in oil market hedge funds accounts for as much as 25% of the cost of oil.

Anyone who understands this, care to comment ?
 
Originally posted by: Tom
I heard somewhere that trading in oil market hedge funds accounts for as much as 25% of the cost of oil.

Anyone who understands this, care to comment ?

I'd love to see proof of that. I highly doubt it. Why?

Because futures contracts aren't like regular financial instruments. Debt and equity are limited issuance and are a scarce resource. Thus, if demand goes up, then price goes up.

However, derivative contracts takes a writer (short) and buyer (long). Both parties have to agree to abide by the contract. The writer has to have a reason why they are selling the contract and the buyer has to have a reason to buy it. The number of contracts are only limited by the number of sellers willing to sell and buyers willing to buy. Thus, it is infinitely priced.

It isn't like there are X number of people chasing Y contracts, there *HAS* to be a counterparty that is willing to keep taking risk.

Keep in mind that many of these contracts are stuck on balance sheets or bank accounts and many require marking to market, something which further exposes parties to a lot of risk. They aren't "sell and forget" like debt or equities.


The hedge fund excuse is an old one, something which most people just don't understand.
 
Originally posted by: OS

It mentions that there is a component for inflation also. Wiki has an article on money supply which says US money supply has actually grown about 6% a year, which is probably a truer measure of inflation than CPI. 6% compounded over 5 years is something around 35% for 5 years.

maoney supply is not an accurate measure of inflation, nor is there an accurate method for calculating accurate inflation measures from money supply growth. You should also keep in mind that american currency is not only used in american commerce, but that of multiple nations. As the world economy grew or its demand for american currency increased, that would have a negative impact (tending downwards) on inflation.
 
Originally posted by: Mill
Originally posted by: LegendKiller
Originally posted by: DealMonkey
Okay, if gas prices are purely a matter of economics, then please explain big oil's record profits.

Now, even as high gasoline prices continue to anger motorists and aggravate financial problems at General Motors Corp. and Ford Motor Co., the oil companies have begun to report record quarterly profit. Yesterday, British energy giant BP PLC reported a $6.53 billion third-quarter profit, up from $4.87 billion in the same period last year. And tomorrow, analysts expect Exxon Mobil Corp. to show that it earned nearly $9 billion over the past three months -- the largest corporate quarterly profit ever.

Um excuse me, largest corporate profit ever. Can anyone explain it? Where's all of the extra profit coming from?


Let me ask you. If yesterday, you paid $5 for some lemonade mix and charged $10 for a gallon of lemonade on the street corner, and then tomorrow lemonade mix costs $10, would you not also charge an appropriate amount more? Say $15?

Would then, your other costs (labor, cups...etc) scale with the cost of lemonade mix, or stay the same?

Would we consider the fact that your profit is now $10, instead of $5, a doubling of your profits? Or is it merely passing the cost increase onto the consumer?

Would we also only consider absolute dollars, or would we look at it as a ratio, like normal non-mathamatically challenged financial analysts do?


So, to apply the extrapolation. The oil companies are pushing the added costs of oil onto consumers. Since their corporate structures are still going to be the same, whether their input cost doubles or not (it doesn't take 2x as many people to sell something that costs 2x as much, does it?). That means that their profit, on an absolute *AND* relative term, will not scale linearly with oil costs.

I guess some people need to take remedial economics and finance.

All you are talking about is price inflation of one component of a product, and then arguing that the inflation makes it ok for higher profits. Let's get real.

If lemonade mix changes from 5-10 dollars, and you only bumped your price up 5 dollars to 15, your profit wouldn't be higher. It would be the same. REVENUE would increase, but *not* profit. Very simple stuff. I've seen this argument before on this board and it doesn't work out if you pay attention. It is almost a number's con to confuse people who are bad at math.

Let's say Exxon-Mobil has fixed costs of 15 dollars a barrel when refining, producing, storing, salaries, etc to create 100 gallons of gasoline. Let's say Exxon was buying oil at 30 dollars a barrel. So, basically, 45 dollars per barrel of oil is their cost to produce 100 gallons of gasoline. In effect, .45 cents a gallon. Let's say Exxon sells to distributors and its gas stations at a rate of .55 cents-a-gallon. 10 cents-a-gallon profit or 10 dollars a barrel profit.

If oil doubles to 60 dollars a barrel, why would their profit go up? Suddenly it costs them 75 dollars a barrel to create the same 100 gallons of gasoline, but how are they making more money? Now, gas is .75 cents a gallon, yet if Exxon prices their gas at the same 10 cents-gallon profit level and moves gas to .85 cents, then how would they have higher income? Their income would still be 10 cents-a-gallon profit or 10 dollars a barrel profit.

The oil companies are pushing the added costs of oil onto consumers.

Which, exactly, is what they are denying. They are pushing the added cost of oil by allowing wholesale gas prices to remain high, with the argument that futures trading and worldwide problems are what's taking the profit. Which is a lie. If they want to add the cost of oil, then they'd still be having similar profits but much higher revenue. Instead, they have both... which can only lead to one conclusion.

I guess some people need to take remedial economics and finance.

You should learn the difference between revenue and income/profit.

your error lies in revenue/expense/profit ratios
 
Originally posted by: LegendKiller
Originally posted by: Tom
I heard somewhere that trading in oil market hedge funds accounts for as much as 25% of the cost of oil.

Anyone who understands this, care to comment ?

I'd love to see proof of that. I highly doubt it. Why?

Because futures contracts aren't like regular financial instruments. Debt and equity are limited issuance and are a scarce resource. Thus, if demand goes up, then price goes up.

However, derivative contracts takes a writer (short) and buyer (long). Both parties have to agree to abide by the contract. The writer has to have a reason why they are selling the contract and the buyer has to have a reason to buy it. The number of contracts are only limited by the number of sellers willing to sell and buyers willing to buy. Thus, it is infinitely priced.

It isn't like there are X number of people chasing Y contracts, there *HAS* to be a counterparty that is willing to keep taking risk.

Keep in mind that many of these contracts are stuck on balance sheets or bank accounts and many require marking to market, something which further exposes parties to a lot of risk. They aren't "sell and forget" like debt or equities.


The hedge fund excuse is an old one, something which most people just don't understand.


I don't claim to understand hedge funds. However, it doesn't seem to me that the reduction in risk on the down side(which is what these funds are for, correct ?), isn't paid for somehow ?

Within a commodity market, how could this cost be paid for, if not by increasing the cost of the commodity ? Money doesn't come from thin air.

 
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