EMP strike, how serious of a threat?

[destrekor]

2012 solar maximum.

There's no way to know when an 1850s-level solar storm will hit Earth again. Most likely would occur during a solar maximum, but it's not absolutely necessary nor must it happen in the next few solar weather cycles.

Could be tomorrow, could have been 5 minutes ago.

However, based on cycles, I'm gunning for 2012 as well.
It would just be pure comedy. Won't exactly kill us directly, so if I'm to lose everything I know, some other shit better come and kill me. No electricity or modern amenities for likely a few years. Transportation, production, foods... eek, that time will be hell to live through.

 

[Rubycon]

2012 solar maximum.

X50+ class CME directed right at the globe could definitely prove troublesome for telecom sats, ISS, etc. Hopefully power grid operators can be fairly prepared and not experience too much damage/downtime.

 

[DivideBYZero]

Not a lot of 24 fans left these days

I thought the "CTU" reference would have given it away pretty easily... or perhaps the "Jack Bauer is not amused" pic.

haha, OK, yeah, never invested an entire earth day without sleep for just one season of anything, so yeah!

 

[destrekor]

X50+ class CME directed right at the globe could definitely prove troublesome for telecom sats, ISS, etc. Hopefully power grid operators can be fairly prepared and not experience too much damage/downtime.

I don't know if there is really any way to prepare for such a CME.

They have some aging "early warning" monitoring devices in closer orbit in-between the Sun and Earth iirc, but truly known if they are capable of relaying the event, though it should work.

They want to send another monitoring device out there, but ultimately, we don't know if there such a CME will have a slow buildup with smaller events, or just one big massive event. If it's the former, good solar forecasting can relay information out to grid operators to.. shutdown the grids? A lot of negatives for a false prediction, but that risk definitely outweighs the risk of no prediction followed by grid failures.

And if there is no early warning period, I don't know if there could possibly be enough time to recognize the event and prepare the grids prior to the impacts are felt on Earth.

 

[Rubycon]

It's coming so they have to be prepared for it, right?
I mean come on this is the Government of The United States Of America! They put a man on the moon for crying out loud! Millions of dollars of tax payer money spent on engineering genius' sitting in secret rooms thinking stuff up! They got you covered.

:biggrin:

I don't know if there is really any way to prepare for such a CME.

They have some aging "early warning" monitoring devices in closer orbit in-between the Sun and Earth iirc, but truly known if they are capable of relaying the event, though it should work.

They want to send another monitoring device out there, but ultimately, we don't know if there such a CME will have a slow buildup with smaller events, or just one big massive event. If it's the former, good solar forecasting can relay information out to grid operators to.. shutdown the grids? A lot of negatives for a false prediction, but that risk definitely outweighs the risk of no prediction followed by grid failures.

And if there is no early warning period, I don't know if there could possibly be enough time to recognize the event and prepare the grids prior to the impacts are felt on Earth.

 

[SphinxnihpS]

X50+ class CME directed right at the globe could definitely prove troublesome for telecom sats, ISS, etc. Hopefully power grid operators can be fairly prepared and not experience too much damage/downtime.

NASA says they are working on it (sats, grids, getting the word out, etc). I'm sure they'll have us safe and sound by 2025.

 

[SphinxnihpS]

There's no way to know when an 1850s-level solar storm will hit Earth again. Most likely would occur during a solar maximum, but it's not absolutely necessary nor must it happen in the next few solar weather cycles.

Could be tomorrow, could have been 5 minutes ago.

However, based on cycles, I'm gunning for 2012 as well.
It would just be pure comedy. Won't exactly kill us directly, so if I'm to lose everything I know, some other shit better come and kill me. No electricity or modern amenities for likely a few years. Transportation, production, foods... eek, that time will be hell to live through.

Think of all communications and power out for 3 months. What would happen?

 

[Rubycon]

Think of all communications and power out for 3 months. What would happen?

Oh wow could you just imagine that?
The 70s were great because you could watch a movie in a public movie house with no cell phones and people had manners...

All these things that people have become dependent on for day to day life - iphones, portable pcs, blackberries - you name it! Talk about a major Achilles' Heel.

 

[destrekor]

Think of all communications and power out for 3 months. What would happen?

Precisely.
Although an extreme CME, directed at regions of the Earth with massive infrastructure... will knock out everything on the grid for far longer than 3 months. We just don't have the resources to replace entire region's worth of fallen equipment. Transformers? We'd probably get a few smaller regions up in 3 months, but it'll take far longer to manufacture the number of transformers needed to bring an entire country back up and running. Not only do you have to produce those, they have to build up the local grid to be able to do so.

It'd be a nightmare if we are caught off guard. Hopefully such an event doesn't happen until we've had a chance to thoroughly prepare.
But considering how fast the radiation from a massive CME can travel, it's hard to really say we'll ever have more than a few minutes to even prepare, because it's going to be flying through space, while not at C, at some estimates it could be half C. I've seen it argued that the energy spike would hit Earth in 18 minutes, which is just under half the time it takes light to reach Earth from the Sun.

If we have a solid early-warning system at 0.25 AU, at those estimates the CME would be detected by the satellite after about 4.5 minutes. It would then take about 6 minutes for the satellite's information to be received by NASA on Earth.
That leaves us humans with under 8 minutes to prepare.

Wow.
I hope I'm not alive for this.

 

[destrekor]

Oh wow could you just imagine that?
The 70s were great because you could watch a movie in a public movie house with no cell phones and people had manners...

All these things that people have become dependent on for day to day life - iphones, portable pcs, blackberries - you name it! Talk about a major Achilles' Heel.

We wouldn't even be able to watch that movie!

All we'd have to do is walk and talk at parks.
and build our own fires.
Oil lamps for lighting.
Boiling water for everything.

Anyone ever wanted to live in the 1800s? This'll be your chance!

 

[Rubycon]

We wouldn't even be able to watch that movie!

All we'd have to do is walk and talk at parks.
and build our own fires.
Oil lamps for lighting.
Boiling water for everything.

Anyone ever wanted to live in the 1800s? This'll be your chance!

Some of us generate our own power and live off the grid. No GPS? The stars still shine at night. Thank goodness I still have my trusty sextant.

The average person that can barely lift a finger in the garage? They're screwed.

 

[PingSpike]

Some of us generate our own power and live off the grid. No GPS? The stars still shine at night. Thank goodness I still have my trusty sextant.

The average person that can barely lift a finger in the garage? They're screwed.

Too bad that average person will probably show up at your house, bonk you over the head with a wrench and steal your generator...before filling it with the wrong kind of fuel and destroying it.

 

[Phoenix86]

Not a lot of 24 fans left these days

I thought the "CTU" reference would have given it away pretty easily... or perhaps the "Jack Bauer is not amused" pic.

My work blocks most pic sites so I simply don't see them when embedded, I caught the CTU ref just as I hit post. Fail.

 

[zinfamous]

BWAHAHAHAHAHA! Are you calling that shit-pile of fireworks, propane and gas cans in an old Isuzu an attempted EMP strike?!

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! :awe:

no, but he is summarizing the current season of 24.

 

[zinfamous]

The Sun is the only real, and credible, source of an EMP threat. And the bastard will likely carry the plan out, but refuses to tell us when.

I say the only real option is to order a preemptive strike on the sun, just so this doesn't happen! Only we have the right to choose the time of our own destruction!

Who's with me?!

 

[Powermoloch]

I think what we're forgetting that our local star (aka the sun) can screw up our electronics D:

 

[PingSpike]

I say the only real option is to order a preemptive strike on the sun, just so this doesn't happen! Only we have the right to choose the time of our own destruction!

Who's with me?!

Mr Burns: "Since the beginning of time man has yearned to destroy the sun."

 

[SphinxnihpS]

I think what we're forgetting that our local star (aka the sun) can screw up our electronics D:

I think we're not reading threads we post in.

 

[zinfamous]

Mr Burns: "Since the beginning of time man has yearned to destroy the sun."

I've always been sympathetic to Monty when it comes to his sun-destroying motivations.

 

[Rubycon]

Too bad that average person will probably show up at your house, bonk you over the head with a wrench and steal your generator...before filling it with the wrong kind of fuel and destroying it.

The average person may find it hard to cross 1000 nm of defensible space known as the Sargasso Sea.

 

[Raduque]

Too bad that average person will probably show up at your house, bonk you over the head with a wrench and steal your generator...before filling it with the wrong kind of fuel and destroying it.

That's kind of hard considering she lives on a ship. :awe:

The Sun is the only real, and credible, source of an EMP threat. And the bastard will likely carry the plan out, but refuses to tell us when.

Well, we could always just strap Jack Bauer into the space shuttle and have him interrogate the sun. "WHEN ARE YOU GOING TO SET OFF THE EMP? I'M A FEDERAL AGENT!"

But then the sun would probably just piss itself and put itself out, and then we'd still be screwed.

 

[destrekor]

That's kind of hard considering she lives on a ship. :awe:



Well, we could always just strap Jack Bauer into the space shuttle and have him interrogate the sun. "WHEN ARE YOU GOING TO SET OFF THE EMP? I'M A FEDERAL AGENT!"

But then the sun would probably just piss itself and put itself out, and then we'd still be screwed.

"YOU'LL TURN YOURSELF BACK ON, RIGHT NOW! YOU'RE GOING TO FREEZE US? IS THAT YOUR GAME? WE'LL BURN YOU!"
Nukes, send them to the sun.
We'll save it, the movies say it has to work!

 

[SphinxnihpS]

1/3 of the world's humans will die if we experience a power and communications outage for 3+ months.

 

[Saint Nick]

If you kill 15 people in a row without dying, you can get an EMP. Then you can use it before anyone else!

 

[Jeff7]

...
If we have a solid early-warning system at 0.25 AU, at those estimates the CME would be detected by the satellite after about 4.5 minutes. It would then take about 6 minutes for the satellite's information to be received by NASA on Earth.
That leaves us humans with under 8 minutes to prepare.

Wow.
I hope I'm not alive for this.

I'd imagine the Twitter accounts of those working with STEREO, SOHO, and SDO will pretty much break the news:

@Humanity: FFFFUUUUUU-
@Humanity: Sun just jizzed in our pants.
@First world: Damn, you so screwed!

Then, minutes later, millions of Tweets cried out with 140 bytes of terror, and were suddenly silenced.