Seriously, I see no trolling by @heymrdj He has put figures out there. If you disagree, dispute them with your own. Spouting FUD and Strawman is just a waste of time.
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Electric Vehicle tipping point soon?
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Seriously, I see no trolling by @heymrdj He has put figures out there. If you disagree, dispute them with your own. Spouting FUD and Strawman is just a waste of time.
PeterScott
Platinum Member
I don't need figures to dispute nonsense like half the cars switching to EVs overnight.
It's nothing but irrelevant FUD to bring up BS strawman arguments like half the cars switching instantly to EVs.
It isn't remotely possible. It's nothing but a phony premise to build alarmist arguments upon. Figures are meaningless when based on a nonsense premise.
It will take decades to actually switch half the cars to EVs, so the grid won't have to face a massive overnight transition.
Decades to bring new (mostly renewable) capacity online.
Decades to boost grid storage.
Decades for people to build dirt cheap personal Solar and backup (actually considered a threat to the Grid as people defect).
Decades to develop smart grid charging where cars communicate with grid, adjust charge rates to conditions, and car can actually serve as grid backup.
The Grid today will be nothing like the Grid decades from now when half the cars are electric.
heymrdj
Diamond Member
You can believe it's FUD all you like, Elmer. The fact is the thread is titled "is the tipping point soon". My response is it's not, I've listed my reasons why. A decade is not soon, it's not even soon by the relatively short lifespan of the automobile. Electric cars will not be avalanching into availability soon, aside from PHEV. We don't have the grid to support mass deployments of even a few million a year in many places. This is not FUD, this is my opinion, which is the entire thread. Both of our opinions are based entirely on the evidence we have now, that we can then extrapolate into a theoretical vector for the technology. I'm listing people in apartments, you're listing people in single family units. I cannot calculate how many apartment units have access to 120V or 240V power for charging. I know there are some around here that sell the spots for a premium (85$ a month at one apartment complex here in town for a uncovered spot with a 30A charger). You can't tell me how many single family dwellings don't just have street parking with no power available (We've been house shopping all year and anything in the price range of 75k-130k here has been street parking with no driveway or garage). I aim low, you aim high, maybe in 10 years we'll find out who landed closer to the target.
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Yuriman
Diamond Member
I suppose we should define what a "tipping point" is. OP did not do so explicitly.
I would say "tipping point" could be defined either from a demand (desire) standpoint, or from a practical usability standpoint.
As far as practicality is concerned, could a large portion of the population be as well or better served with an EV than with a gas car, if their next purchase (wouldn't happen overnight for everyone) were an EV instead? Probably.
-More households than not have more than one car, so an EV need not serve 100% of the needs for everyone for every trip, much like not every car need be a pickup truck capable of towing a 30' camper.
-Do EVs and PEHVs have lower cost of ownership than a similar gas car, accounting for depreciation? Probably. The Leaf depreciated quickly, but the Volt and C-Max seem to be holding value very well. I'm guessing the Model 3 and Bolt will hold their value very well too, and cost less over time than an equivalent gas car, unless we have a major battery breakthrough.
-It's probably accurate to say that very roughly half of all people could get by on the electric range of most PEHVs for most of their daily needs, nevermind the range of a full EV.
-It's probably accurate to say that half of all people could reasonably charge an EV at home on 110v to cover those range needs. The need for 220v chargers wouldn't be universal.
-It's probably accurate to say that the grid in most places could handle the influx of half of all people buying PEHVs and EVs charging at 110v at night, at the rate that people normally replace their cars. Half of all cars will not magically become EVs overnight.
As far as demand/desire, I don't think people are aware of them enough yet. Electric vehicles only seem to be in the consciousness of a minority, and even fewer are actually buying them. We might see the demand "tipping point" in only a few years though, depending on how well they're advertised.
EDIT: As a side note, although I drive a 75mpg+ hybrid, I've largely replaced my car for around-town trips with a couple of electric bicycles. I managed to put together a nice 1000w geared hub kit with ~30 miles of range for under $250, and it's a hoot to ride.
I would say "tipping point" could be defined either from a demand (desire) standpoint, or from a practical usability standpoint.
As far as practicality is concerned, could a large portion of the population be as well or better served with an EV than with a gas car, if their next purchase (wouldn't happen overnight for everyone) were an EV instead? Probably.
-More households than not have more than one car, so an EV need not serve 100% of the needs for everyone for every trip, much like not every car need be a pickup truck capable of towing a 30' camper.
-Do EVs and PEHVs have lower cost of ownership than a similar gas car, accounting for depreciation? Probably. The Leaf depreciated quickly, but the Volt and C-Max seem to be holding value very well. I'm guessing the Model 3 and Bolt will hold their value very well too, and cost less over time than an equivalent gas car, unless we have a major battery breakthrough.
-It's probably accurate to say that very roughly half of all people could get by on the electric range of most PEHVs for most of their daily needs, nevermind the range of a full EV.
-It's probably accurate to say that half of all people could reasonably charge an EV at home on 110v to cover those range needs. The need for 220v chargers wouldn't be universal.
-It's probably accurate to say that the grid in most places could handle the influx of half of all people buying PEHVs and EVs charging at 110v at night, at the rate that people normally replace their cars. Half of all cars will not magically become EVs overnight.
As far as demand/desire, I don't think people are aware of them enough yet. Electric vehicles only seem to be in the consciousness of a minority, and even fewer are actually buying them. We might see the demand "tipping point" in only a few years though, depending on how well they're advertised.
EDIT: As a side note, although I drive a 75mpg+ hybrid, I've largely replaced my car for around-town trips with a couple of electric bicycles. I managed to put together a nice 1000w geared hub kit with ~30 miles of range for under $250, and it's a hoot to ride.
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Brovane
Diamond Member
My wife and I have shared an Electric car for almost 2-years now (2015 Leaf).
For me living in Southern California, single family home with garage an 80-mile range EV fits perfectly in our lifestyle. We also have a Honda Pilot for longer trips but the Leaf is the daily driver. We have a 6.6kw charger in our garage. It cost me about $500 and then I installed the L14-50 outlet myself and that was about another $100 in parts. Our house has a 200-amp main panel so we had no trouble supporting this. The Leaf is a great little fun vehicle to drive. Requires almost no maintenance and is extremely cheap per mile for energy costs, about 3-4 cents per mile.
I know some board members have brought up the big issue with charging an EV. It seems that part of the argument goes, "Because I couldn't charge an EV overnight that means the vehicle isn't practical and will never work. "
In the US about 80% of owner occupied houses have a carport or a garage. https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/ahs/2013/factsheets/ahs13-1_UnitedStates.pdf
That presents a considerable target audience that can charge an EV overnight while parked. Not saying that everyone can, but we have tens of Millions of people with access to a garage and the capability to charge an EV while parked overnight. So that is big demographic that can be the target.
However, the ability to charge for people without a garage etc. is an issue and will not be fixed overnight.
Part of that issue will be fixed by longer range EV's 200+ or 300+ mile range.
Tesla is taking on the problem by building more supercharging units inside of city centers. https://www.tesla.com/blog/supercharging-cities
Basically, a slightly lower powered SC unit, 72kw instead of 100kw+ but the unit installation is much more streamlined.
However, EV's still have long ways to go before they are no longer niche products. In 2016 about 160k in EV 's sold in the US, for all vehicles, you have 16M+ in 2016.
Should be interesting next several years as EV's continue to improve and the infrastructure improves.
For me living in Southern California, single family home with garage an 80-mile range EV fits perfectly in our lifestyle. We also have a Honda Pilot for longer trips but the Leaf is the daily driver. We have a 6.6kw charger in our garage. It cost me about $500 and then I installed the L14-50 outlet myself and that was about another $100 in parts. Our house has a 200-amp main panel so we had no trouble supporting this. The Leaf is a great little fun vehicle to drive. Requires almost no maintenance and is extremely cheap per mile for energy costs, about 3-4 cents per mile.
I know some board members have brought up the big issue with charging an EV. It seems that part of the argument goes, "Because I couldn't charge an EV overnight that means the vehicle isn't practical and will never work. "
In the US about 80% of owner occupied houses have a carport or a garage. https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/ahs/2013/factsheets/ahs13-1_UnitedStates.pdf
That presents a considerable target audience that can charge an EV overnight while parked. Not saying that everyone can, but we have tens of Millions of people with access to a garage and the capability to charge an EV while parked overnight. So that is big demographic that can be the target.
However, the ability to charge for people without a garage etc. is an issue and will not be fixed overnight.
Part of that issue will be fixed by longer range EV's 200+ or 300+ mile range.
Tesla is taking on the problem by building more supercharging units inside of city centers. https://www.tesla.com/blog/supercharging-cities
Basically, a slightly lower powered SC unit, 72kw instead of 100kw+ but the unit installation is much more streamlined.
However, EV's still have long ways to go before they are no longer niche products. In 2016 about 160k in EV 's sold in the US, for all vehicles, you have 16M+ in 2016.
Should be interesting next several years as EV's continue to improve and the infrastructure improves.
Zorba
Lifer
Seriously? That is 500 gallons of gas, or ~15,000 miles of driving in a typical sedan, just for the cost of install at someone else's house. I think that would firmly put the EV in the toy category as opposed to "economical tool" category.
I think EVs make a lot of since for commuting in town, but for the majority of people they are non-starter for a single car house. I'm not going to waste hours on my vacation going out of my way to find a charging station and then sit there for .5-2 hours per refill.
Squisher
Lifer
There is a solution to all this, but it would be way down the line and might require gubment intervention. If most of the manufacturers of EVs got together and decided on a standard interchangeable battery pack that could be swapped out quickly from underneath all the problems go away.
Pull up to a what might look like an auto pay machine and put in your "EV car card" to access your standing account, you'd drive over what kinda looks like a quick oil change pit with guide rails like a car wash has. Some sort of automaton would swap out 1-4 battery packs depending on the size of the vehicle. You'd be charged according to how much charge the refreshed packs have and reimbursed if your depleted pack(s) still have some worthwhile charge left in them. In and out in five to ten minutes
This is somewhat how it's done without the automation in factories with a fleet of battery powered forklifts and if you've ever seen quick tooling change in a factory you'd see how stuff can be swapped out quickly with little human effort.
Pull up to a what might look like an auto pay machine and put in your "EV car card" to access your standing account, you'd drive over what kinda looks like a quick oil change pit with guide rails like a car wash has. Some sort of automaton would swap out 1-4 battery packs depending on the size of the vehicle. You'd be charged according to how much charge the refreshed packs have and reimbursed if your depleted pack(s) still have some worthwhile charge left in them. In and out in five to ten minutes
This is somewhat how it's done without the automation in factories with a fleet of battery powered forklifts and if you've ever seen quick tooling change in a factory you'd see how stuff can be swapped out quickly with little human effort.
K1052
Elite Member
Tesla tried this with a machine and even opened a pilot facility, people weren't interested and opted to use superchargers. I think they closed it last year. Maybe a larger test would work better but to avoid the issue we have with charger standards you'd have to settle on one architecture/standard for battery packs and require all the automakers to stick with it.
PeterScott
Platinum Member
I don't see any chance of battery swapping going anywhere. The logistics of holding batteries in inventory, and just have the real estate, equipment, all push the expense of this causing fueling to go up, and it would really limit car design to force any kind of common battery, and I don't see much demand. Dead in the water IMO.
In the future with 300-400 mile batteries and even faster supercharging, that should cover the needs of most people just fine. For extreme distance it makes more sense to to fly and rent at location anyway. Other than the once in your young life trip across continent, those kinds of long drives suck.
PeterScott
Platinum Member
My thought on Tipping point is when sales take off. Say when new car sales rise above 10% and accelerate. Right now they are sub 1% and not really accelerating.
My thought on soon, was within 10 years, which for a major shift is nothing.
My thought on the driver of that tipping point will be pricing. When purchase price parity is reached, it should be clear to everyone that the TCO (Total Cost of Ownership) is hugely in favor of EV's. As long as EVs have significantly higher up front costs, people won't examine TCO that closely.
Squisher
Lifer
That is not a fair comparison. Tesla wanted you to pay $80 for the swap with the superchargers being free and you had to make an appointment to get a swap.
You mean like the real estate and inventory that gas stations now regularly have.
K1052
Elite Member
It's going to be uneven geographically. CA is already coming up on 5% of sales being EVs or PHEVs this year so far which is a dramatic increase and bucks overall vehicle sales trends as flat to declining. The new Leaf hitting dealers and Model 3 volume picking up will probably bump that a fair bit.
K1052
Elite Member
I didn't say if it was fair or not, just that it was at least attempted which is more than I can say for basically everybody else. I think this ship has sailed though. There are too many variations and no impetus for the government to make people standardize and invest in such a scheme.
PeterScott
Platinum Member
Sure, gas stations have that issue, but that isn't the point, you are comparing why battery swapping is so economically disadvantaged vs charging. That is because of great, equipment, real estate, inventory overhead.
Brovane
Diamond Member
In theory that would work, but in practice it wouldn't. Battery technology isn't stable enough to advance such a concept.
For example, most vehicle manufacturers are not using any type of external cooling or heating on battery packs. However, both GM and Tesla both cool and heat their battery packs.
This standard would also hobble innovation.
The vehicle manufacturers cannot even agree on one standard for Level-3 DC Charging. You currently have three different standards Tesla, CHADemo and CCS Combo. To top this off, China also has their own standard for Level-3 DC charging.
Eventually, 300kw+ Level-3 DC charging will be available and swapping batteries will not be needed.
Well, that's a nice scientific rant - not! Zero facts found, buh bye.
PeterScott
Platinum Member
Tell me how half the cars turn into EV's overnight?
Squisher
Lifer
At that level you'd still be "gassing" up twice as often as ICE at over double the length of time of an average gassing up of an ICE.
(based on fill up to 70% with today's 145kw superchargers which adds 170 miles of range in about 30 minutes.)
I would think that would mean we'd need 4 times the number of chargers as gas stations we have now to keep the time investment reasonable. Talk about infrastructure upgrade.
K1052
Elite Member
You only really need super fast chargers (150kW+) on highways in between points. Cities/suburbs can get away with just a bunch of L2 chargers and some slower L3 chargers. Also urban/close in suburban gas stations are becoming an endangered species as development has heated up.
Brovane
Diamond Member
False dilemma fallacy.
EV's, unlike an Internal Combustion vehicle, can be filled full of energy from an electric plug. The voltage and amperage of the plug determine the rate of charging. The majority of EV charging will be done at a person's residence via L-2 charging overnight. 75M owner-occupied units with 80% having a garage or carport equal about 60M potential "filling" stations for EV's. Before I installed my L14-50 plug at my house, I simply used an adapter to plug my 6.6kw EV charger into my dryer outlet. Before I purchased an EV charger, I simply plugged the charger that came with the car into a 110 outlet. It really is that easy. It was a difficult concept at first, not having to go and get gas every week at a filling station. However, we quickly found not having to swing by Costco every week and wait in line to fill up was kind of nice.
This leaves Public L3 charging for use during times of travel for those that do have home charging and those that don't have home charging. Which leaves us with a considerably smaller amount of vehicles that would be using these charging stations.
EV charging unlike a gas station and be fairly easily fit into areas that a traditional gas station would never fit in. For example, Tesla supercharging for cities - https://www.tesla.com/blog/supercharging-cities
Tesla even located one of there Supercharging stations at a Gas Station.
Tesla also has a program that it provides free to business, destination chargers. https://www.tesla.com/findus/list/chargers/United+States
You are traveling and you stop at a hotel with a destination charger. You plug in your car and it charges overnight and is ready to go in the morning with a full charge.
tweakmonkey
Senior member
https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427&t=3
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/national/power-plants/?utm_term=.b6b53d34d0cb
Many places don't use coal. And things are changing, too... If you live somewhere using exclusively coal, I hope people are trying to change that.
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Torn Mind
Lifer
It seems that some EV people are extremely out of touch in terms of how much infrastructure enhancements are needed far dense areas that were developed 50-60 years ago. An area like Prince George's County is full of tight, narrow roads filled to the brim with cars, lots of old construction from the 70s, and lots of multifamily complexes, not to mention railroads, rivers, and highways serving as barriers between areas living. Heck, even some single family homes having street parking only.
Electrical work will almost always require a permit, so folks will just live with extension cords going out to their parking space and thus either making the neighborhood look unattractive or be an open invitation for someone else to steal your house's electricity.
EVs are partially the bourgeois dream child of people living in their nice single family homes in some recently developed, affluent suburb who don't drive around except to go to their 9-5 job.
Electrical work will almost always require a permit, so folks will just live with extension cords going out to their parking space and thus either making the neighborhood look unattractive or be an open invitation for someone else to steal your house's electricity.
EVs are partially the bourgeois dream child of people living in their nice single family homes in some recently developed, affluent suburb who don't drive around except to go to their 9-5 job.
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