ProfJohn
Lifer
Best thing about this list is Wednesday we can look at it and see how right or wrong I am.
1. The media will find at least one polling place in a poor minority community with overly long lines and this will be used to make the chase for ?voter disenfranchisement? meanwhile hundreds of polling places in white surbubran areas will suffer the same problems and it will be ignored.
2. Any expected Republican loss that turns into a Republican victory will be seen as an ?unexpected victory? but any Democrat who pulls an upset will be heralded as a ?great victory?
3. If the Democrats take the house the USA Today will run the headline ?America Votes for a Change? whereas in 1994 they ran the headline "ANGRY WHITE MEN: Their votes turn the tide for GOP."
4. We will not know the results of Tom Delay?s old district until Wednesday due to the large number of write in votes.
5. A Lincoln Chafee victory in Rhode Island will be downplayed despite the fact that he was down 10 points in the polls only a week ago.
6. The Missouri Senate race is the one most likely to spur recounts and other charges. This is the state where one judge ordered inner city polls kept open late while another judge ordered them closed. Of all the races this one could end up being the ugliest.
7. A Democrat victory will be cast as a vote against the war, despite the fact that the anti-war candidate himself, Lamont, will lose by 10+ points.
8. Some Democrat will claim a Democrat mandate no more how small their victory.
9. The cries of impeachment will start the second Democrats are projected to take control of the house.
10. Any glitch in computerized voting systems will be seen as proof of attempts to ?steal? the election.
11. Watch the east coast Senate races, Republican victories in VA, MD and RI will mean that Democrats will be lucky to win the house. However, Democrat victories in those 3 races would point to a 30 or so seat victory for Democrats.
12. The expectations game favors Republicans. Any thing less than a Democrat take over of congress would be HUGE victory for Republicans. While Democrats have to win 30+ seats just to meet ?historical? averages for 6 year elections. Despite this, a 1 seat majority for Democrats will be called a ?great victory? by someone.
13. Cultural issues, gay marriage in VA and stem cell in MO, could help Republicans to victory in both states.
14. Which ever party does not have control of the house will most likely turn to an outside of DC candidate in 08. Especially if the Democrats can not gain control.
15. I will be making a lot less posts after the election. Good news for you Democrats, no mater who wins.
16. The number of post election lawsuits and claims of irregularity will be inversely proportional to the number of Democratic victories.
17. A victory by a black Republican (Steele) will be ignored while a loss by a black Democrat (Ford) will be seen as proof that racisms is still a major problem in American.
18. A huge Democrat victory will result in Rumseld leaving, but a Republican victory will not.
Personally, I see the Democrats picking up 3 or 4 seats in the Senate. OH and PA are done deals, but the others are toss-ups, AND a victory by Steele could result in only a 1 seat pick up. Watch for Santorum to get a job in the administration if he losses.
The house is much tougher. 13 Republican seats are listed at ?lean Democrat? and another 14 are toss-ups. Only two Democrat seats are toss-ups. Democrats should win at least 10 of the leaners and half the toss-ups. Leaving them with a 20 seat pick up, with 25 being the most. Republicans could hold the house, but that would requite an amazing turnout effort.
If the turn out numbers in Republican districts looks high in early returns then it should be a good sign for them keeping the house. But if the numbers are low then Pelosi can start picking out her curtains.
Let?s hope we have a ?clean? election. And do not see a bunch of law suits and claims of election stealing etc.
1. The media will find at least one polling place in a poor minority community with overly long lines and this will be used to make the chase for ?voter disenfranchisement? meanwhile hundreds of polling places in white surbubran areas will suffer the same problems and it will be ignored.
2. Any expected Republican loss that turns into a Republican victory will be seen as an ?unexpected victory? but any Democrat who pulls an upset will be heralded as a ?great victory?
3. If the Democrats take the house the USA Today will run the headline ?America Votes for a Change? whereas in 1994 they ran the headline "ANGRY WHITE MEN: Their votes turn the tide for GOP."
4. We will not know the results of Tom Delay?s old district until Wednesday due to the large number of write in votes.
5. A Lincoln Chafee victory in Rhode Island will be downplayed despite the fact that he was down 10 points in the polls only a week ago.
6. The Missouri Senate race is the one most likely to spur recounts and other charges. This is the state where one judge ordered inner city polls kept open late while another judge ordered them closed. Of all the races this one could end up being the ugliest.
7. A Democrat victory will be cast as a vote against the war, despite the fact that the anti-war candidate himself, Lamont, will lose by 10+ points.
8. Some Democrat will claim a Democrat mandate no more how small their victory.
9. The cries of impeachment will start the second Democrats are projected to take control of the house.
10. Any glitch in computerized voting systems will be seen as proof of attempts to ?steal? the election.
11. Watch the east coast Senate races, Republican victories in VA, MD and RI will mean that Democrats will be lucky to win the house. However, Democrat victories in those 3 races would point to a 30 or so seat victory for Democrats.
12. The expectations game favors Republicans. Any thing less than a Democrat take over of congress would be HUGE victory for Republicans. While Democrats have to win 30+ seats just to meet ?historical? averages for 6 year elections. Despite this, a 1 seat majority for Democrats will be called a ?great victory? by someone.
13. Cultural issues, gay marriage in VA and stem cell in MO, could help Republicans to victory in both states.
14. Which ever party does not have control of the house will most likely turn to an outside of DC candidate in 08. Especially if the Democrats can not gain control.
15. I will be making a lot less posts after the election. Good news for you Democrats, no mater who wins.
16. The number of post election lawsuits and claims of irregularity will be inversely proportional to the number of Democratic victories.
17. A victory by a black Republican (Steele) will be ignored while a loss by a black Democrat (Ford) will be seen as proof that racisms is still a major problem in American.
18. A huge Democrat victory will result in Rumseld leaving, but a Republican victory will not.
Personally, I see the Democrats picking up 3 or 4 seats in the Senate. OH and PA are done deals, but the others are toss-ups, AND a victory by Steele could result in only a 1 seat pick up. Watch for Santorum to get a job in the administration if he losses.
The house is much tougher. 13 Republican seats are listed at ?lean Democrat? and another 14 are toss-ups. Only two Democrat seats are toss-ups. Democrats should win at least 10 of the leaners and half the toss-ups. Leaving them with a 20 seat pick up, with 25 being the most. Republicans could hold the house, but that would requite an amazing turnout effort.
If the turn out numbers in Republican districts looks high in early returns then it should be a good sign for them keeping the house. But if the numbers are low then Pelosi can start picking out her curtains.
Let?s hope we have a ?clean? election. And do not see a bunch of law suits and claims of election stealing etc.
