- Sep 26, 2000
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http://www.cqpolitics.com/2006/10/special_report_the_battering_r_1.html
Election-Night Bellwethers
Barring major glitches in Election Day vote counting, there should be an indication whether the Democrats? momentum will overwhelm the Republicans? barrier or whether the GOP barricade, though leaky, will be left standing.
The early poll closings, at 6 p.m. Eastern time, are in Indiana and Kentucky, states with high concentrations of Democratic House takeover bids.
In Indiana, Democrats? oft-thwarted efforts to oust staunchly conservative Republican John Hostettler from his seat in the state?s southwestern corner may be coming to fruition at the hands of Democrat Brad Ellsworth, the sheriff in the district?s most populous county. If Hostettler hangs on, it will send a strong signal that Republican damage will be limited. If the Democrats win a pair of rematches ? in the state?s southeastern corner, where Baron P. Hill is looking to get back the seat he lost two years ago, and in the district around South Bend, where lawyer Joe Donnelly is taking a second shot at Republican Chris Chocola ? it could herald a big night for the challengers.
Reynolds, the NRCC chairman, and other Republicans have argued long and loud that all politics is local and that this midterm campaign, despite the Democrats? efforts to make it so, is not a referendum on Bush or Republican rule in Congress.
That proposition will get an early election-night test in the House seat based in Louisville, in which Republican Anne M. Northup has stayed popular with a slightly Democratic constituency with the federal funds she has sent home as an Appropriations Committee member. Her challenger this time, alternative-newspaper publisher John Yarmuth, is running a textbook 2006 Democratic campaign of castigating Bush and seeking to tie the incumbent to his ankles.
Farther east, a traditional Republican bastion that includes suburbs of Cincinnati, freshman Republican Geoff Davis faces his predecessor, Ken Lucas, thought by some to be the only Democrat conservative enough to compete for this seat. A Lucas win there, coupled with an upset of Republican Ron Lewis in a district south of Louisville by state Rep. Mike Weaver, might spur an early champagne run by Democrats.
Poll closings an hour later will bring the first major indicators from the other side of the ledger: whether the Republicans can balance the scales by knocking off some Democratic incumbents. The focal point is in southern Georgia, where Democrats in adjoining districts, Jim Marshall and John Barrow, are among the Republicans? few top-tier targets in a year when the party is mostly playing defense. Former House members are the challengers in both cases.
The 7-o?clock hour will also bring potentially the most important result from the Senate races: the Virginia contest between Republican incumbent George Allen and Democrat Jim Webb, an author and former Navy secretary who is a veteran of the Vietnam War. If Webb overcomes the state?s slight GOP tilt and ousts Allen, who has been buffeted since the summer by gaffes and controversies, it will mark an upset that could signal how the other Senate tossups will fall.
Nice informative piece.
In the words of Yogi Berra,
"It could get late early."
Election-Night Bellwethers
Barring major glitches in Election Day vote counting, there should be an indication whether the Democrats? momentum will overwhelm the Republicans? barrier or whether the GOP barricade, though leaky, will be left standing.
The early poll closings, at 6 p.m. Eastern time, are in Indiana and Kentucky, states with high concentrations of Democratic House takeover bids.
In Indiana, Democrats? oft-thwarted efforts to oust staunchly conservative Republican John Hostettler from his seat in the state?s southwestern corner may be coming to fruition at the hands of Democrat Brad Ellsworth, the sheriff in the district?s most populous county. If Hostettler hangs on, it will send a strong signal that Republican damage will be limited. If the Democrats win a pair of rematches ? in the state?s southeastern corner, where Baron P. Hill is looking to get back the seat he lost two years ago, and in the district around South Bend, where lawyer Joe Donnelly is taking a second shot at Republican Chris Chocola ? it could herald a big night for the challengers.
Reynolds, the NRCC chairman, and other Republicans have argued long and loud that all politics is local and that this midterm campaign, despite the Democrats? efforts to make it so, is not a referendum on Bush or Republican rule in Congress.
That proposition will get an early election-night test in the House seat based in Louisville, in which Republican Anne M. Northup has stayed popular with a slightly Democratic constituency with the federal funds she has sent home as an Appropriations Committee member. Her challenger this time, alternative-newspaper publisher John Yarmuth, is running a textbook 2006 Democratic campaign of castigating Bush and seeking to tie the incumbent to his ankles.
Farther east, a traditional Republican bastion that includes suburbs of Cincinnati, freshman Republican Geoff Davis faces his predecessor, Ken Lucas, thought by some to be the only Democrat conservative enough to compete for this seat. A Lucas win there, coupled with an upset of Republican Ron Lewis in a district south of Louisville by state Rep. Mike Weaver, might spur an early champagne run by Democrats.
Poll closings an hour later will bring the first major indicators from the other side of the ledger: whether the Republicans can balance the scales by knocking off some Democratic incumbents. The focal point is in southern Georgia, where Democrats in adjoining districts, Jim Marshall and John Barrow, are among the Republicans? few top-tier targets in a year when the party is mostly playing defense. Former House members are the challengers in both cases.
The 7-o?clock hour will also bring potentially the most important result from the Senate races: the Virginia contest between Republican incumbent George Allen and Democrat Jim Webb, an author and former Navy secretary who is a veteran of the Vietnam War. If Webb overcomes the state?s slight GOP tilt and ousts Allen, who has been buffeted since the summer by gaffes and controversies, it will mark an upset that could signal how the other Senate tossups will fall.
Nice informative piece.
In the words of Yogi Berra,
"It could get late early."
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