Eight Botched Environmental Forecasts

[Throckmorton]

Are you listening to yourself???

Seriously???

You make the VERY same arguments theists make in the "you should believe just in case" argument.

Energy costs are skyrocketing because of this pseudo religious facade. The end results are: the climate is going to chug along doing what it's always done, the poor of the world suffer more, and the middle classes have a lower standard of living. All because you think we should pass sweeping legislation that ends up making energy far more expensive "just in case."

WTF are you talking about? I'm trying to tell you that your line of reasoning makes absolutely no sense. You're basically saying "Global warming isn't as bad as predicted, because they didn't take into account factors that ended up ameliorating the effects, therefore we don't have to worry about global warming".

Your mother telling you not to play with fire even though you played with fire and survived isn't "you should believe just in case". Can you really not understand such a basic analogy?

Let me guess, you've driven drunk and not killed anybody, so you're going to keep doing it because "na na na boo boo the government was wrong, drunk driving doesn't kill"?

 

[Throckmorton]

I don't know how anyone who has been paying utility bills over the last 10-20 years could not notice the skyrocketing costs.

And that has something to do with combating global warming? Right, those Arabs selling us oil and gas are so concerned with global warming that they're reducing supply.

 

[brencat]

Energy costs are skyrocketing because of a resurgence in energy index speculation, the primary reason for $140/bbl oil back in 2008

Fixed.

But other than that, I absolutely agree that this climate change nonsense being pushed by the left has the potential to add hundreds or even thousands to the average family's energy costs per year. And I'm not willing to risk our country's economic hegemony today on some B.S. doomsday prediction that might come to pass thousands of years from now.

The fact is, most reasonable people would agree that if China and India, 2 economic powerhouses, are going to be largely exempt from any binding agreement on reducing CO2 emissions, then no way will the people of the U.S. ever agree to shoot ourselves in the head economically, even if most of Western Europe wants to.

 

[Throckmorton]

Fixed.

But other than that, I absolutely agree that this climate change nonsense being pushed by the left has the potential to add hundreds or even thousands to the average family's energy costs per year. And I'm not willing to risk our country's economic hegemony today on some B.S. doomsday prediction that might come to pass thousands of years from now.

The fact is, most reasonable people would agree that if China and India, 2 economic powerhouses, are going to be largely exempt from any binding agreement on reducing CO2 emissions, then no way will the people of the U.S. ever agree to shoot ourselves in the head economically, even if most of Western Europe wants to.

We're going to burn up all the fossil fuels we can. No amount of carbon regulation will stop that. The earth is completely fucked. The best we can do is preserve as much habitat as possible so more species have a chance of surviving the next century.

 

[Jadow]

I love how they all defend their predictions even after they have been proven completely false. What arrogant asses.

Here's my prediction: In 50 years, the earth's climate, oceans, etc... will be basically the same as they are today.

 

[Zebo]

You could dump nuke waste in oceans without issue. Russians did it for years. People make way to big an issue about environment and collect selected data to bolster thier argument - this has been proven by wikileaks funny enough.

I thought it was conservatives that were small brained worry warts?

 

[PeshakJang]

Fixed.

That's an interesting topic to explore along these lines...

People regularly decry speculation causing oil prices to skyrocket, "putting the hurt" on the consumer... but you would think that liberals would be champions of energy speculators. By driving up prices beyond their intrinsic value, they create a market environment more conducive to researching and developing alternative energy, alternative transportation, green technology, etc. Speculators have been able to use to the free market to successfully achieve what the liberal green movement has been trying to do through forced government regulation.

Some liberals have suggested raising gas taxes to support alternative energy development, yet speculation causing gas prices to go up naturally achieves this same goal, without the added layer of government force.

But that's a whole 'nother topic...

 

[IronWing]

5. "By 1985, air pollution will have reduced the amount of sunlight reaching earth by one half." Life magazine, January 1970.

Life Magazine also noted that some people disagree, "but scientists have solid experimental and historical evidence to support each of the following predictions."

Air quality has actually improved since 1970. Studies find that sunlight reaching the Earth fell by somewhere between 3 and 5 percent over the period in question.

....

8. "In ten years all important animal life in the sea will be extinct. Large areas of coastline will have to be evacuated because of the stench of dead fish." Ehrlich, speech during Earth Day, 1970

"Certainly the first part of that was very largely true -- only off in time," Ehrlich FoxNews.com. "The second part is, well -- the fish haven't washed up, but there are very large dead zones around the world, and they frequently produce considerable stench."

The Clean Air Act was also passed in 1970. It has made an enormous difference in air quality in the US and around the world (obviously the Chinese and others are making up for lost pollution now). I remember riding through paper mill towns as a kid and not seeing the sun due to the smog. Ash covered the landscape for up to a mile around each mill. It was pretty gross. By the 1980s, the same towns with the same mills still in operation smelled a bit but pretty much looked like everywhere else. The Clean Air Act did that.

The beaches were strewn with dead fish in the 60s and 70s, not because more fish were dying but because sea birds are the primary scavengers of dead fish and sea bird populations had crashed. In the post DDT/PCB world, bird populations have rebounded and the beaches are relatively clean.

Actions were taken to prevent the futures predicted in these two cases and now folks want to claim the original predictions were wrong because they didn't come to pass? Pathetic historic revisionism.

 

[PeshakJang]

Actions were taken to prevent the futures predicted in these two cases and now folks want to claim the original predictions were wrong because they didn't come to pass? Pathetic historic revisionism.

In the first case, as you pointed out, air quality improved since 1970, yet the sunlight reaching the earth still fell, that's the point being made.

In the second article, the example you are using has zero relevance to the original prediction. He predicted that *all* significant ocean life would be extinct. What actions did we take to prevent this?

 

[IronWing]

In the first case, as you pointed out, air quality improved since 1970, yet the sunlight reaching the earth still fell, that's the point being made.

In the second article, the example you are using has zero relevance to the original prediction. He predicted that *all* significant ocean life would be extinct. What actions did we take to prevent this?

Sea birds are sea life. We also imposed limits on fishing, cleaned up point source pollution going into oceans, built salmon ladders, widely limited whaling, limited the fishing of sea turtles, imposed CITES import/export limits on endangered species including endangered sea life. We have taken many actions in attempt to head off disaster.

 

[shortylickens]

Umm, in 1970 the Environment Protection Agency didnt exist.
Because of their work from the mid 70's on, air pollution has been significantly reduced. In 1970 it would not have been unreasonable to assume smog would dominate the sky.