EDIT: Energy Apocalypse Day within the next decade?

[0marTheZealot]

http://www.odac-info.org/bulletin/C4Transcript.htm

One of the best quotes here

"I wouldn?t put a one percent. If it turned out that some miracle happened and we discovered some phenomenal fields that have defied discovery for the last 40 years, it?s Ð you can?t, you can never take a forecast and say that?s an impossibility. 2020 I could be living on the moon; I don?t think I?m going to. I would actually say that the probability of me living on the moon is higher odds than Saudi Arabia producing 22 million barrels a day."

-Matthew Simmons

Basically what he's saying is that we've already found and extracted most of the easy (read cheap) oil. Anything we find right now will probably be expensive and hard to pump. So while production increases, prices will paradoxically also increase. If it costs $30 dollars to pump a barrel of oil in deepwaters, it is no use selling that oil at $25 or $30. High oil prices are here to stay.

10-27 11:08: Ex-Saudi Oil Exec Criticizes US Govt Oil Supply Forecast
DJ Ex-Saudi Oil Exec Criticizes US Govt Oil Supply Forecast


LONDON (Dow Jones)--The former head of Saudi Arabian Oil Co.'s (SOI.YY) oil
exploration Wednesday sharply criticized U.S. government oil supply
projections.

"The whole industry laughs at it," said Sadad Al-Husseini, former executive
vice president of exploration and production at Aramco, the world's biggest oil
company.

The Energy Information Agency, statistical arm of the U.S. Department of
Energy, projects crude from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries
oil will increase 90% in 20 years and that demand for Saudi oil will jump 137%,
to about 22 million barrels day.

Saudi Arabia's own models forecast top production for the same time at a much
lower 15 million b/d. Saudi Arabia now produces some 9.5 million b/d.

"They are perhaps unaware of how unrealistic these numbers are," Al-Husseini
said.

OPEC supplies half of the world's oil exports.

The EIA's predictions assume very low oil prices. Al-Husseini said oil will
be much more expensive, encouraging greater fuel economy and the development of
alternative fuels that will shrink reliance on oil.

He also questioned U.S. projections on future oil finds and said declining
production in existing fields will increase.

"Should we be worried? Yes," he said.

Billions of barrels of oil calculated to be part of world reserves by the
U.S. government include nearly unusable pitch, he said.

Al-Husseini said he wanted to call their figures to task because they shape
major government policy decision more than any other agency's data.

-By Shai Oster, Dow Jones Newswires; +44-7842-9357; shai.oster@dowjones.com



(END) Dow Jones Newswires

edit : http://money.iwon.com/ht/nw/bu...27/hl_bus-sp29659.html


You really should read this one:

By some estimates, there will be an average of two-percent annual
growth in global oil demand over the years ahead, along with,
conservatively, a three-percent natural decline in production from
existing reserves. That means by 2010 we will need on the order of
an additional 50 million barrels a day.33

As quoted by William Engdahl, ?Iraq and the Problem of Peak Oil,?
Current Concerns, (January 26, 2004). Archived at
http://www.currentconcerns.ch/.../2004/01/20040118.php; To read
the full text of Dick Cheney?s speech, see
http://www.peakoil.net/Publica...Cheney_PeakOil_FCD.pdf

The world is pumping at full capacity and we are doing approxiamately 85 million barrels a day. Existing fields are DECLINING as we speak at a rate of 3% a year. We need to make up 5% of oil production in 6 years. 2010 is not that far off. And most mega projects take 6-10 years to come online. And we haven't found anything major for a long time. Nowadays, 500 million barrels of oil, about a weeks worth of oil, is considered a monster find. Compared to some of the biggest discoveries, like Canterral (1976 I think), Ghawar (late 40s) Safaniya (mid 50s), 500 million is a drop in the bucket.

Canterral had 35 billion barrels initally. It has probably peaked and moved into permanment decline. It produces ~2 million barrels of oil a day.

Ghawar is the world's king of oil fields. The Saudis claim they pump another 70 billion barrels of oil from it. Intial estimates placed Ghawar in the range of 70 billion barrels of oil. The real number is likely inbetween the two. Ghawar produces 4.5 mbbl/day. It can be boosted to 5 mbbl/day if needed.

Safanyia is the world's largest offshore oil field with about 35-40 billion barrels of oil. It produces close to 2mbbl/day

We need discoveries like these to make up the slack. 50 million barrels of oil per day is like bringing online 5 more Saudi Arabias, or 10-15 more Mexicos/Venezuelas/Indonesias in 6 years.

To underscore this statistic, the total output of the 22 largest fields amounts to 19.7 million barrels a day. If anyone doubts that oil doesn't influence US policy is naive.
http://home.entouch.net/dmd/twenty.htm


Edit : 10-28-04: http://www.thedesertsun.com/ne...s/20041017013610.shtml

Edit : http://www.energybulletin.net/3595.html
http://www.energybulletin.net/3597.html
A bit more optimistic than what I usually say.

Edit :
http://www.odac-info.org/bulle...rojRelease16-11-04.pdf
http://www.peakoil.net/Publica...ALITY_AND_ILLUSION.pdf
http://hubbert.mines.edu/news/Campbell_02-3.pdf
http://www.odac-info.org/asses...rojectionsdisputed.pdf
http://www.tekno.dk/subpage.ph...age=uk&category=11

Late night readings! Enjoy!


2-27-05 EDIT:

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/archive...am%3Darchive%26garden%3D%26minisite%3D

No shit, because the equations have no plugins for a finite resource that is dwindling.

EDIT : 3-16-05

http://www.energybulletin.net/4740.html...ESSID=4514047eb46caf663b02ae8a62917e15

The Long Finger of Oil. This is why oil is the most valuable substance bar none today.

 

[phantom309]

Originally posted by: 0marTheZealot
http://www.odac-info.org/bulletin/C4Transcript.htm

One of the best quotes here

"I wouldn?t put a one percent. If it turned out that some miracle happened and we discovered some phenomenal fields that have defied discovery for the last 40 years, it?s Ð you can?t, you can never take a forecast and say that?s an impossibility. 2020 I could be living on the moon; I don?t think I?m going to. I would actually say that the probability of me living on the moon is higher odds than Saudi Arabia producing 22 million barrels a day."

-Matthew Simmons

Basically what he's saying is that we've already found and extracted most of the easy (read cheap) oil. Anything we find right now will probably be expensive and hard to pump. So while production increases, prices will paradoxically also increase. If it costs $30 dollars to pump a barrel of oil in deepwaters, it is no use selling that oil at $25 or $30. High oil prices are here to stay.

Congratulations. You've discovered the real reason we invaded Iraq.

 

[0marTheZealot]

I've said this numerous times

 

[ReiAyanami]

USGS says we have 35 years of oil left. BPL says we got 30 years.

the world using up 80,000,000 barrels every single day, and its rising even faster so we might only have 25 yrs or 15.

america has 280 million ppl and 300 million cars.
china has 1.2 billion people and 6 million cars.

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: 0marTheZealot
I've said this numerous times

Me too, like the Gulf Of Mexico has been pumped dry. The Bullsh!t that Hurricane Ivan took out a quarter of the production is just that bullsh!t.

All you see out there is tons and tons of rusting, falling apart dried out oil rigs all over the Gulf like a disease.

 

[MonkeyK]

Originally posted by: 0marTheZealot

Basically what he's saying is that we've already found and extracted most of the easy (read cheap) oil. Anything we find right now will probably be expensive and hard to pump. So while production increases, prices will paradoxically also increase. If it costs $30 dollars to pump a barrel of oil in deepwaters, it is no use selling that oil at $25 or $30. High oil prices are here to stay.

Offshore used to be expensive and hard to pump. People are clever enough to find solutions, I just wish the solutions were for renewables instead.

 

[Alistar7]

Originally posted by: ReiAyanami
USGS says we have 35 years of oil left. BPL says we got 30 years.

the world using up 80,000,000 barrels every single day, and its rising even faster so we might only have 25 yrs or 15.

america has 280 million ppl and 300 million cars.
china has 1.2 billion people and 6 million cars.

That's going to change, China and India will begin to suck up resources at a pace that will dawrf America.....

 

[0marTheZealot]

Offshore is still expensive and hard to pump.

"Despite the GOM having the largest number of discovered fields of all known deepwater basins, it also has the highest number of undeveloped fields, largely because the majority of the fields are not economic under most scenarios (Table 3). This is partly because the size of many of these fields is difficult to predict. " Ivan Sandrea and Osama Al Buraiki, "Future of deepwater, Middle East hydrocarbon supplies," Oil and Gas Journal, June 17, 2002, p. 26

Faith in Technology is still Faith.

 

[BaliBabyDoc]

Originally posted by: Alistar7

Originally posted by: ReiAyanami
USGS says we have 35 years of oil left. BPL says we got 30 years.

the world using up 80,000,000 barrels every single day, and its rising even faster so we might only have 25 yrs or 15.

america has 280 million ppl and 300 million cars.
china has 1.2 billion people and 6 million cars.

That's going to change, China and India will begin to suck up resources at a pace that will dawrf America.....

I think you underestimate the ability of the American consumer to waste resources. We will not relinquish the title of "Global Glutton" without a fight.

 

[ajf3]

america has 280 million ppl and 300 million cars.
china has 1.2 billion people and 6 million cars.

So you think we should live as the Chinese peasant folk do?

 

[Zebo]

Originally posted by: BaliBabyDoc

Originally posted by: Alistar7

Originally posted by: ReiAyanami
USGS says we have 35 years of oil left. BPL says we got 30 years.

the world using up 80,000,000 barrels every single day, and its rising even faster so we might only have 25 yrs or 15.

america has 280 million ppl and 300 million cars.
china has 1.2 billion people and 6 million cars.

That's going to change, China and India will begin to suck up resources at a pace that will dawrf America.....

I think you underestimate the ability of the American consumer to waste resources. We are not relinquishing the title of "Global Glutton" without a fight.

Editied

 

[0marTheZealot]

Originally posted by: ajf3
america has 280 million ppl and 300 million cars.
china has 1.2 billion people and 6 million cars.

So you think we should live as the Chinese peasant folk do?

It wouldn't hurt. All this bullsh!t we have doesn't make us happy. You wanna know who has the happiest country in the world?

Nigeria. War-torn, poverty stricken Nigeria.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/3157570.stm

Collectively, 280 - 300 million Americans has the same global impact on the environment and consumption of resources as 10 billion Chinese folk. This is clearly unsustainable.

Either we start living less wastefully, or Mother Nature will force us to.

 

[judasmachine]

yay Peak Oil has gone from tin foil hat country to mainstream. 'Bout damn time, at least someone has awoke.

 

[0marTheZealot]

Peak oil isn't the problem persay, it's our way of economy and our lifestyle that is the problem.

Civilization and technology will continue long after peak oil hits. Our current lifestyle nor will our method of economy will not.

 

[assemblage]

Oil prices are going up and up for sure. To say Saddam was overthrown for oil is a red herring. In 2001 the US imported the most oil ever from Iraq and that only constituted 6.7%. In contrast, Canada supplies 17.3% of our oil. That?s only 3% less then all Persian Gulf producers. We import more oil from Canada than any other single country. We also import a lot of oil from Mexico, 13.7%. They are our third largest supplier. Those two countries supply the US with 10.7% more oil then all Persian Gulf producers combined.

The US must be more diligent with finding alternative fuels or alternative means of obtaining oil products such as biofuels. I fear the dependence on foreign oil will lead to a major economic depression in my lifetime.

Ultimately, I think it's the increasing price of oil that will force the changes. When biomass fuels and bio-refined fuel products like this ConAgra plant which converts garbage into oil products, become widely available and cheaper than mined oil products they will be added to the fuel mix to lower the costs. As prices of mined oil products continue to rise, capacities to produce these bio products will also rise to meet demand and more of it will be added to the mix. In addition, as prices rise, consumers will turn to fuel efficient transportation such as hybrid cars and cars like DaimlerChrysler?s Smart car.. In the long run, I would not be surprised to see a lot more Vespa?son the road. Unless real strong leadership emerges to develop hydrogen cars and hydrogen fuel infrastructure, I do not see it being used for a very long time, if ever.

 

[0marTheZealot]

^^^^^^

Venuzela, Mexico and Canada don't have nearly as much production potential as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran. Hell, anyone of those countries "stated" reserves is more than NA's total reserves.

Business won't continue as normal. We are going to need a fundemental shift in our priorities and lifestyles.

Biobased fuels are great (hell I'm getting my degree in Bioengineering in that area), but they come with a caveat. Much of this technology needs massive investment, arable land and petrolchemicals. We are running out of arable land and petrochemicals and the US isn't exactly the best place to start investing.

 

[Spencer278]

Originally posted by: assemblage
Oil prices are going up and up for sure. To say Saddam was overthrown for oil is a red herring. In 2001 the US imported the most oil ever from Iraq and that only constituted 6.7%. In contrast, Canada supplies 17.3% of our oil. That?s only 3% less then all Persian Gulf producers. We import more oil from Canada than any other single country. We also import a lot of oil from Mexico, 13.7%. They are our third largest supplier. Those two countries supply the US with 10.7% more oil then all Persian Gulf producers combined.

The US must be more diligent with finding alternative fuels or alternative means of obtaining oil products such as biofuels. I fear the dependence on foreign oil will lead to a major economic depression in my lifetime.

Ultimately, I think it's the increasing price of oil that will force the changes. When biomass fuels and bio-refined fuel products like this ConAgra plant which converts garbage into oil products, become widely available and cheaper than mined oil products they will be added to the fuel mix to lower the costs. As prices of mined oil products continue to rise, capacities to produce these bio products will also rise to meet demand and more of it will be added to the mix. In addition, as prices rise, consumers will turn to fuel efficient transportation such as hybrid cars and cars like DaimlerChrysler?s Smart car.. In the long run, I would not be surprised to see a lot more Vespa?son the road. Unless real strong leadership emerges to develop hydrogen cars and hydrogen fuel infrastructure, I do not see it being used for a very long time, if ever.

Don't tell bush or Canada is going to find a spot in the new axis of evil.

 

[MonkeyK]

Originally posted by: ajf3
america has 280 million ppl and 300 million cars.
china has 1.2 billion people and 6 million cars.

So you think we should live as the Chinese peasant folk do?

Think of the impact as those 1.2 billion Chinese people (and 1+ billion Indians) move closer to our lifestyle. Expensive oil in greater demand = very expensive oil.

 

[Alistar7]

Originally posted by: BaliBabyDoc

Originally posted by: Alistar7

Originally posted by: ReiAyanami
USGS says we have 35 years of oil left. BPL says we got 30 years.

the world using up 80,000,000 barrels every single day, and its rising even faster so we might only have 25 yrs or 15.

america has 280 million ppl and 300 million cars.
china has 1.2 billion people and 6 million cars.

That's going to change, China and India will begin to suck up resources at a pace that will dawrf America.....

I think you underestimate the ability of the American consumer to waste resources. We will not relinquish the title of "Global Glutton" without a fight.

Actually switzerland leaves the largest ecological footprint on the enviornment via resourse use per person, but I will not underestimate your desire to latch onto anything anti US not because it's true, but because it fits your beliefs.....

 

[0marTheZealot]

Alistar, can I see a source for that bit of information?

From all accounts I've seen, we make the biggest total ecological impact.

EDIT : NM, it's a per-person statistic. Still a source would be good.

 

[Alistar7]

Originally posted by: 0marTheZealot
Alistar, can I see a source for that bit of information?

From all accounts I've seen, we make the biggest total ecological impact.

EDIT : NM, it's a per-person statistic. Still a source would be good.

Just read it in an article recently, I suppose I could look up a few links to support it but I'll leave it to those that interested. You may even prove me wrong....

 

[magomago]

Originally posted by: assemblage
Oil prices are going up and up for sure. To say Saddam was overthrown for oil is a red herring. In 2001 the US imported the most oil ever from Iraq and that only constituted 6.7%. In contrast, Canada supplies 17.3% of our oil. That?s only 3% less then all Persian Gulf producers. We import more oil from Canada than any other single country. We also import a lot of oil from Mexico, 13.7%. They are our third largest supplier. Those two countries supply the US with 10.7% more oil then all Persian Gulf producers combined.

The US must be more diligent with finding alternative fuels or alternative means of obtaining oil products such as biofuels. I fear the dependence on foreign oil will lead to a major economic depression in my lifetime.

Ultimately, I think it's the increasing price of oil that will force the changes. When biomass fuels and bio-refined fuel products like this ConAgra plant which converts garbage into oil products, become widely available and cheaper than mined oil products they will be added to the fuel mix to lower the costs. As prices of mined oil products continue to rise, capacities to produce these bio products will also rise to meet demand and more of it will be added to the mix. In addition, as prices rise, consumers will turn to fuel efficient transportation such as hybrid cars and cars like DaimlerChrysler?s Smart car.. In the long run, I would not be surprised to see a lot more Vespa?son the road. Unless real strong leadership emerges to develop hydrogen cars and hydrogen fuel infrastructure, I do not see it being used for a very long time, if ever.

It isn't always about the oil WE get If our trading partners don't 'get enough oil and they all fall and rot...who do we have to trade with? We have to ensure oil for our allies as well~

 

[Alistar7]

http://www.panda.org/downloads/general/lpr2004.pdf

Page 12 lists the footprint per person per country, looks like were still tops. Now I just wish I could find that article, they used extra factors. Point is the US is not a clear runaway abuser, and the demands of China and India will outpace ours either way.

 

[Alistar7]

Interesting breakdowns on each commodity used, look what the US uses in energy and water compared to some....

 

[0marTheZealot]

Alistar, demand for India and China will outpace ours only if there is infinite oil. There isn't enough oil for China to get in that position any time soon.
The US is a good example though, we import 12.5 million barrels of oil a day. We consume 20 million barrels a day. That's a 4th of all oil produced each day.

In regards to oil, we are the #1 abuser.