Economy in Four Graphs

[dullard]

The economy grows at slowest pace in 4 years. This news article inspired me to see what is really going on with the economy. So, here it is, all the data in raw form for anyone to interpret:

Four graphs of the economy.

My interpretations:
[*]Real GDP growth peaked ~ 3 years ago and has been slowly doing worse since then. We are still definately in a growth state, but that growth is getting closer and closer to zero.
[*]The stock market is going superbly since its lows nearly 5 years ago.
[*]Inflation in 2006 was quite worrysome. It was a big cause of the recent slower GDP growth. A couple months back, inflation plummetted, but it is creaping back up.
[*]Sorry I don't have all the housing data going back to 2000. But in the last 2 years, housing has been nearly linearly declining.

Any other data that you want me to include? I need websites in tabular format that is consistantly updated.

 

[dmcowen674]

Let's see the resident Bushco's blame Clinton again.

-----------------------------------------------
You are not even attempting to contribute anything of substance to this thread.

Anandtech Moderator

Edited: 04/27/2007 at 11:39 AM by AnandTech Moderator


Well for years I posted articles showing the signals of a recession while Bush and the resident Republicans continue to say the Economy is booming, the best evar.

For years they blamed Clinton.

I am asking are they still blaming Clinton???

4-27-2007 Economy crawls, raising recession fears

WASHINGTON - The worst economic growth in four years is raising concern that troubles in the U.S. housing market will spread and throw the country into a recession before the year is out.

The economy practically crawled at a 1.3 percent pace in the opening quarter of 2007, the Commerce Department reported Friday. That was even weaker than the sluggish 2.5 percent rate in the closing quarter of last year.

The main culprit in the slowdown: the housing slump, which made some businesses act cautiously. The bloated trade deficit also played a role.

Consumers largely carried the economy in the first quarter. But will they stay resilient in light of the troubled housing market, fallout from risky mortgages and rising energy prices?

"The No. 1 question is can the consumer continue to play Atlas while the housing market crumbles around him?" said Richard Yamarone, economist at Argus Research.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, however, has said he doesn't believe the economic expansion, now in its sixth year, is in danger of fizzling out.
Neither does the Bush administration.
=============================================
The only ones still in denial is Bush, Bernake and the resident Republicans

 

[Genx87]

Graphs appear a pretty uniform curve.

I think we are about due for a recession and this summer's fuel prices and slow housing market will kick it into gear.

 

[dullard]

Originally posted by: Genx87
Graphs appear a pretty uniform curve.

I think we are about due for a recession and this summer's fuel prices and slow housing market will kick it into gear.

I'd agree. For the most part, everything was at a low in 2001/2002. Then everything peaked in 2005/2006. Now things are all headed back down (except for stocks, as there isn't enough data yet to say where they are going).

I just about filled up for $3/gallon for the first time this week. It was at $2.97/gallon. Housing problems are going to continue for at least 2007 if not much of 2008. These aren't good signs for a strong upcoming economy. Don't get me wrong, nothing says depression either. It might just be another soft landing near 0% GDP growth.

 

[Slew Foot]

Originally posted by: Genx87
Graphs appear a pretty uniform curve.

I think we are about due for a recession and this summer's fuel prices and slow housing market will kick it into gear.

Agree with this, though Im surprised at the stock market, it keeps chugging along. The pundits say that the weak dollar is raising profits abroad which make up 41% of the average DOW companies earnings.

Gas prices always rise in the summer, I dont think anyone didn't expect this, but food prices(at least around here) have gone up way more than normal. At least homes are about 25% cheaper, too bad Ill be leaving in a couple years.

 

[ProfJohn]

It looks like we are heading for a slow down.
There was good news in the growth of housing, even if it was rather low.

Right or wrong Presidents are rated on the state of the economy, especially when they leave office.
The next president could inherit an economy in a slowdown or recession and that could drag down the public?s perception of them. Of course it would also give them a chance to revive the economy and take the credit for it, as Clinton and Reagan both did.

The good news is that the length of our average recession is MUCH smaller now than it was prior to 1982. Our economy is so much stronger and so broadly based that slow downs are lasting for a year and a half on average. Which means we could still go through a typical post 1982 recession and be out of it before 2009 when the next President gets into office.

 

[ProfJohn]

I should add that the signs of a traditional economic slow down have yet to appear.
If we see a drop in corporate earnings and the stock market then we should start getting worried.

 

[dullard]

ProfJohn, thank you for those posts. Those were some of the most intelligent, non-partisan posts that I've seen you make. I like that side of you so much better. :thumbsup:

 

[Slew Foot]

Out of curiosity, it seems like European banks are raising their own own interest rates. Would this force the US to do the same to keep the dollar up?

As for corporate earnings, if a US company is profitable because of its foreign sales, is that good for the average American? Its obviously good for the shareholders and execs, but it doesnt seem like the rank and file Joe Average would benefit.

 

[DealMonkey]

Originally posted by: dullard
ProfJohn, thank you for those posts. Those were some of the most intelligent, non-partisan posts that I've seen you make. I like that side of you so much better. :thumbsup:

I agree. Kudos PJ.

 

[LegendKiller]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn
I should add that the signs of a traditional economic slow down have yet to appear.
If we see a drop in corporate earnings and the stock market then we should start getting worried.

Those are actually trailing indicators of a downturn. Reduced consumer sentiment and durable goods orders are leading. However, they can be skewed easily. Just look at what airplane orders do to durable goods.

Personally, I think people need to disconnect the stock market from the "economy" and a bit less so on the side of corp earnings. The economy isn't as prone to speculative manipulations and volatility as the stock market, or at least not the wild movements or uber-irration exuberance.

One indicator I like to monitor is junk mail. My brother works for the USPS and he tells me about junk mail volume. It's a pretty decent indicator of what's going on. When things start to turn south marketing is usually the first thing to get whacked and junk mail is right up there.

Right now he's not getting any overtime and the volume is thin.

 

[chucky2]

From someone who's been saving for a while (and less then a year now from getting my first house), the housing market taking a downturn I think is a good idea.

It was on fire so bad there for a while that I think prices really ran away with what normal families can bear.

When you've must have a two earner income home just to afford a decent house in a decent neighborhood, I think there's a problem there.

I'm not a fan of government stepping into our lives all the time, but I really think they should have bumped the interest rates to help bring housing prices back inline with reality.

Too late now though...

Chuck

 

[XMan]

Originally posted by: Slew Foot

Originally posted by: Genx87
Graphs appear a pretty uniform curve.

I think we are about due for a recession and this summer's fuel prices and slow housing market will kick it into gear.

Agree with this, though Im surprised at the stock market, it keeps chugging along. The pundits say that the weak dollar is raising profits abroad which make up 41% of the average DOW companies earnings.

Gas prices always rise in the summer, I dont think anyone didn't expect this, but food prices(at least around here) have gone up way more than normal. At least homes are about 25% cheaper, too bad Ill be leaving in a couple years.

A weak dollar would be good for domestic tourism, as well. If it continues to be low I'd imagine that Disneyland and Disneyworld will see a lot of foreign customers this summer.

 

[LegendKiller]

Originally posted by: chucky2
From someone who's been saving for a while (and less then a year now from getting my first house), the housing market taking a downturn I think is a good idea.

It was on fire so bad there for a while that I think prices really ran away with what normal families can bear.

When you've must have a two earner income home just to afford a decent house in a decent neighborhood, I think there's a problem there.

I'm not a fan of government stepping into our lives all the time, but I really think they should have bumped the interest rates to help bring housing prices back inline with reality.

Too late now though...

Chuck

Manipulating the economy through monetary control is a bad idea. The Feds policy of currency protection is the best idea.

 

[dullard]

Originally posted by: LegendKiller
Manipulating the economy through monetary control is a bad idea. The Feds policy of currency protection is the best idea.

The government has two ways to manipulate the economy:
1) Directly: spend 5% more on the government side or tax 5% less and you'll get an instant 1% boost to the GDP. That can be enough to outright stop or prevent a recession. But of course, you are just borrowing now and you'll have to pay it back eventually. Hopefully, you'll pay it back when times are good and it'll be mostly unnoticed.

2) Indirectly: change interest rates and hope people spend more. This hasn't shown to be a reliable or safe method for changing the GDP. Instead, they use it to stabolize the currency. Because if they wanted a direct way to impact GDP, they can just use #1 instead.

 

[miketheidiot]

Originally posted by: XMan

Originally posted by: Slew Foot

Originally posted by: Genx87
Graphs appear a pretty uniform curve.

I think we are about due for a recession and this summer's fuel prices and slow housing market will kick it into gear.

Agree with this, though Im surprised at the stock market, it keeps chugging along. The pundits say that the weak dollar is raising profits abroad which make up 41% of the average DOW companies earnings.

Gas prices always rise in the summer, I dont think anyone didn't expect this, but food prices(at least around here) have gone up way more than normal. At least homes are about 25% cheaper, too bad Ill be leaving in a couple years.

A weak dollar would be good for domestic tourism, as well. If it continues to be low I'd imagine that Disneyland and Disneyworld will see a lot of foreign customers this summer.

a weak dollar would be bad for you and every other American buying stuff, and good for every non-American buying stuff.

 

[XMan]

Originally posted by: miketheidiot

Originally posted by: XMan

Originally posted by: Slew Foot

Originally posted by: Genx87
Graphs appear a pretty uniform curve.

I think we are about due for a recession and this summer's fuel prices and slow housing market will kick it into gear.

Agree with this, though Im surprised at the stock market, it keeps chugging along. The pundits say that the weak dollar is raising profits abroad which make up 41% of the average DOW companies earnings.

Gas prices always rise in the summer, I dont think anyone didn't expect this, but food prices(at least around here) have gone up way more than normal. At least homes are about 25% cheaper, too bad Ill be leaving in a couple years.

A weak dollar would be good for domestic tourism, as well. If it continues to be low I'd imagine that Disneyland and Disneyworld will see a lot of foreign customers this summer.

a weak dollar would be bad for you and every other American buying stuff, and good for every non-American buying stuff.

Only imported stuff. A weak dollar might help domestic manufacturers, as well as our exports. Why do you think the Chinese devalue their currency?

 

[Slew Foot]

Considering that the US imports almost everything it consumes, a weak dollar would seem like it would be a bad thing.

Another thing I noticed, GDP for the first quarter was fairly blah, but corporate profits were robust. Kind of an odd disconnect.

 

[HombrePequeno]

Originally posted by: Slew Foot
Considering that the US imports almost everything it consumes, a weak dollar would seem like it would be a bad thing.

Another thing I noticed, GDP for the first quarter was fairly blah, but corporate profits were robust. Kind of an odd disconnect.

A weaker dollar would increase the competitiveness of our exports. It would also make imports less competitive because the prices on them would rise. Americans would switch more toward items produced in this country as opposed to importing everything.

Also, we wouldn't be having such an appetite for imports if the government didn't overspend so much.

 

[XMan]

Originally posted by: HombrePequeno

Originally posted by: Slew Foot
Considering that the US imports almost everything it consumes, a weak dollar would seem like it would be a bad thing.

Another thing I noticed, GDP for the first quarter was fairly blah, but corporate profits were robust. Kind of an odd disconnect.

A weaker dollar would increase the competitiveness of our exports. It would also make imports less competitive because the prices on them would rise. Americans would switch more toward items produced in this country as opposed to importing everything.

Also, we wouldn't be having such an appetite for imports if the government didn't overspend so much.

<nods>

Part of the reason for the Japanese success in the automobile segment in the early 80's was due to the weakness of the yen against the dollar. They were thus able to export vehicles that were very cheap here in the United States. As they got more and more of a presence in the market, they were able to raise their prices to maintain profits.

If private enterprise takes advantage of it, having a week currency isn't completely bad. It's one reason why China is purposefully devaluing their currency; it helps them continue to be able to sell cheap exports in Western markets.

 

[miketheidiot]

Originally posted by: XMan

Originally posted by: miketheidiot

Originally posted by: XMan

Originally posted by: Slew Foot

Originally posted by: Genx87
Graphs appear a pretty uniform curve.

I think we are about due for a recession and this summer's fuel prices and slow housing market will kick it into gear.

Agree with this, though Im surprised at the stock market, it keeps chugging along. The pundits say that the weak dollar is raising profits abroad which make up 41% of the average DOW companies earnings.

Gas prices always rise in the summer, I dont think anyone didn't expect this, but food prices(at least around here) have gone up way more than normal. At least homes are about 25% cheaper, too bad Ill be leaving in a couple years.

A weak dollar would be good for domestic tourism, as well. If it continues to be low I'd imagine that Disneyland and Disneyworld will see a lot of foreign customers this summer.

a weak dollar would be bad for you and every other American buying stuff, and good for every non-American buying stuff.

Only imported stuff. A weak dollar might help domestic manufacturers, as well as our exports. Why do you think the Chinese devalue their currency?

who gives a sht about exporters? With a week dollar every single american has reduced purchasing power.

 

[dullard]

Originally posted by: miketheidiot
who gives a sht about exporters? With a week dollar every single american has reduced purchasing power.

Well, if you work for one (as many Americans do), you'll care. Cheaper dollar means more money coming into America = more jobs, higher salaries, less outsourcing, etc. But as a tradeoff, some of the cheap Chineese crap we buy is slightly more expensive. Also, all American items are the exact same price. Overall it is a wash.

Sure some will be helped greatly and others will be hurt greatly. But overall, America is basically even when the dollar fluctuates.

 

[Lonyo]

Any chance of superimposing those curves on each other?

 

[nullzero]

This is bad news looking at the graphs... Inflation is trending upward and GDP is trending downward. Also the dollar is trending downward these are not good signs no matter what way you word it.

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: nullzero
This is bad news looking at the graphs... Inflation is trending upward and GDP is trending downward.

Also the dollar is trending downward these are not good signs no matter what way you word it.

Booming? That's the word they've always been using.