Economist: Housing shortage coming in 2011

Ozoned

Diamond Member
Mar 22, 2004
5,578
0
0
Hard to Believe, huh??


Linky




The focus of the U.S. real-estate market lately has been the number of foreclosures and people trying to purchase cheap housing. But Brian Wesbury, chief economist at First Trust Advisors, says that if Americans don’t start focusing on building new houses, the market will have a much bigger problem on its hands.

“We need one and a half million houses per year just to keep up with population growth,” Wesbury said in an interview with Steve Forbes. “And then if you throw in, you know, fires and tear-downs and just worn-out properties, we need 1.6 million or more per year. Right now, we’re down to about six and a half, seven months’ inventory whether you look at new homes or existing homes.”

Privately owned housing starts in December 2009 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 557,000, according to the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 4% less than where it was in November, which had 580,000 housing starts.

Housing completion numbers also contribute to this dire picture, with December 2009 privately owned housing completions reaching a 768,000 seasonally adjusted annualized rate. That's down 11.2% from the 865,000 completions in November and down 25.3% from the 1,028,000 completions in December 2008.

Some people might shrug these statistics off considering the number of foreclosures in the market. To them, Wesbury told Steve Forbes, "Yes there's foreclosures coming into the market, but we're only starting right now ... We're starting one-third of the houses we need just to keep up with population growth, and that can't last."

There were 315,716 properties last month with foreclosure filings according to RealtyTrac. These filings include default notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions. Though last month's filings were 15% more than a year ago, it was 10% less than December's.
 
Last edited:

Hacp

Lifer
Jun 8, 2005
13,923
2
81
He fails to point out that not everyone can own property. You're going to see more people with roomates renting a place out because they can't afford it.
 

Munky

Diamond Member
Feb 5, 2005
9,372
0
76
...and then if you throw in, you know, stratospheric unemployment rates and the number of additional people who will foreclose their house in the future, we need about 0 additional houses.
 

bobsmith1492

Diamond Member
Feb 21, 2004
3,875
3
81
Maybe we'll wake up and realize you don't need to move out at age 16 and young couples don't need their own 3000 sf house?
 

Hacp

Lifer
Jun 8, 2005
13,923
2
81
Maybe we'll wake up and realize you don't need to move out at age 16 and young couples don't need their own 3000 sf house?

Seriously, if you look at other countries, the "kids" move out at 30. Its called being frugal.
 

Ozoned

Diamond Member
Mar 22, 2004
5,578
0
0
...and then if you throw in, you know, stratospheric unemployment rates and the number of additional people who will foreclose their house in the future, we need about 0 additional houses.

That situation creates a net effect of 0 in the housing demand/supply equasion, unless you think that all of these people will become homeless.
 
Dec 30, 2004
12,553
2
76
Yeah, I don't believe that for a second. There's so many houses with negative equity, and so much shadow inventory that banks have been holding off the market...
Meanwhile there is precisely zero demand for new homes and that is not changing.

Shens, complete shens. Economist I am disappoint.
 

TruePaige

Diamond Member
Oct 22, 2006
9,874
2
0
This article is pretty bunk.

This is one area where demand will always be filled. Apartments will be built, and many will live in them and if they want a house they just hire someone to build it.

This is such a crappy article.
 

Zebo

Elite Member
Jul 29, 2001
39,398
19
81
Good news I have 3 lots ready to go. One is kinda of a PITA cuz I got to build a retention pond on but if there's gonna be a shortage it may be feasible. I anit doing a damn thing though until I see alts reset this march/april/// Oh and Obama's Home equity bailout ends in April.
 
Last edited:

Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
62,365
14,685
136
The only "housing shortage" we'll see in the near future will be at the low end, given employment and income trends. That's if there's any shortage at all.

I'll agree with soccerballtux for a change when he says that banks are holding inventory off the market- that's what they did during the S&L crisis, and obviously what they're doing today.

Even here in Denver, where the real estate bubble never really got off the ground and the effects of the current recession are muted, the number of empty homes in some of the suburban developments is quite large... Entire subdivisions in some of the most bubblicious markets are basically empty... Nice, big new houses that nobody can afford to buy...
 

Slew Foot

Lifer
Sep 22, 2005
12,379
96
86
I f'n hate California. People are buying up million dollar plus houses like they're going out of style. The avg. household income around here is about 100K, where the F do people get enough money to drop on a million $ house?
 

Munky

Diamond Member
Feb 5, 2005
9,372
0
76
That situation creates a net effect of 0 in the housing demand/supply equasion, unless you think that all of these people will become homeless.

Just because they're not homeless doesn't mean they're gonna be buying another house.
 

werepossum

Elite Member
Jul 10, 2006
29,873
463
126
I f'n hate California. People are buying up million dollar plus houses like they're going out of style. The avg. household income around here is about 100K, where the F do people get enough money to drop on a million $ house?

I wonder that myself. The wife and I watched something with a couple buying their first home, pretty much in that position. $800,000 home, they qualified for $550,000 mortgage, so the realtor sets them up with a second mortgage a couple points higher for the balance. If you can't qualify to buy the house with one mortgage how the F@$% could you possibly afford it with a second mortgage at a higher rate?

People are stupid. And greedy. Greedy people set up stupid people for epic failure and we get to cover the loan. Just beautiful.
 

StageLeft

No Lifer
Sep 29, 2000
70,150
5
0
The guy must be retarded. Home "ownership" was too high and is now coming back down as it must.
 

Genx87

Lifer
Apr 8, 2002
41,091
513
126
In my area there were people buying 4-5 homes at a time. I dont see demand catching upto supply for years.
 

ebaycj

Diamond Member
Mar 9, 2002
5,418
0
0
I used to work at First Trust. My opinion is that Mr. Wesbury is an overpaid, overtitled dipshit when it comes to being accurate on the economy.
 

dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
25,980
4,591
126
The economist has a valid point (we need to keep building some homes); but it is overstated and premature and therefore blatantly wrong.

America is growing by about 2.7M people per year. 67.2% of Americans live in houses. Thus, if houses only held one person, we'd need 1.8M new houses a year (plus a bit for houses which are destroyed). But, that is about as far as he got the data correct. What about the fact that houses hold more than one person? If an average of 2 people moved into each house, that number of needed homes plummets to ~0.9M.

Also, he forgot about the massive increase in vacant homes. Typically there were about 2M vacant homes. That number now stands at 3.5M. That 1.5M additional vacant homes will satisfy the ~0.9M/year demand for 20 months (basically the end of 2011 if not a single home was built in that time).

Finally, he forgot that home-ownership rates have fallen for 5 straight years. This started happening even before the bubble burst. As people move out of their homes and back into apartments, there are more vacant homes available for this need. At the current rate of 0.4% per year, 0.4%*130M homes = 0.5M homes available per year just from people moving to apartments. That alone meets more than half of the 0.9M home need. The current new home construction rate of 0.59M/year fills the rest of the need.

Yes, there may be local shortages, but unless trends change, we are building just enough homes to meet the demand from new Americans.
 
Last edited:
Dec 30, 2004
12,553
2
76
Yeah, I don't believe that for a second. There's so many houses with negative equity, and so much shadow inventory that banks have been holding off the market...
Meanwhile there is precisely zero demand for new homes and that is not changing.

Shens, complete shens. Economist I am disappoint.

alright here's some numbers to back it up--
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/02/new-home-sales-fall-to-record-low-in.html

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHEg/S4VA1T8-QPI/AAAAAAAAHmM/11z0ypQjjAY/s1600-h/NHSJan2010NSA.jpg
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHEg/S4VA0KtGaXI/AAAAAAAAHl0/id3OCqtYwfE/s1600-h/NHSJan2010.jpg
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELH...AHmE/oUpIIxDPr48/s1600-h/NHSJan2010Months.jpg
the only hope is: http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELH...8/WqHgR6_MGXA/s1600-h/NHSJan2010Inventory.jpg

none of these charts take into account the shadow inventory banks haven't let out onto the market, and the houses people want to sell if avg selling rate increases.
Also, look at how many people's homes have negative equity-- owe more on the loan than the house is worth--
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELH.../5a3IHzUKBF0/s1600-h/NegativeEquityQ42009.jpg
 
Last edited: