Economic Recovery? Things are looking pretty good right now.

[alchemize]

Let's tally up some great news from today:

NAHB Housing Market Index
Industrial production and capacity utilization
Empire State manufacturing survey

Cliffdiving anyone?

 

[retrospooty]

Originally posted by: alchemize
Huh? Show me any of these "good news on several economic measures"?

About the best you can say at this point is "maybe we've hit bottom". And I don't believe that to be the case in the housing market which really is driving all of this.

Turn on your news station man... Its all over the place. I am talking about the several bits of good news over the past week that has the stock market rallying.

I didnt say we are out of it, I said things are looking better. As far as the housing market - things are cheap now, and once money starts flowing through the lenders, that should improve steadily.

 

[retrospooty]

Originally posted by: tfcmasta97

1 business week rally and suddenly a decade building towards a collapse is over? Where's OP getting his info from?

Is he just an 'average guy' trying to make a point for his sig?

What "OP" are you even talking about? Where did I say the collapse is over? If you re-read it, you will see that I said "Its far from over, but it certainly does look like we are bottoming out now"

Only time will tell how well out economy goes- but if you think 3-4 years from now we will still be in a recession, you will be in for a pleasant surprise.

 

[alchemize]

Originally posted by: retrospooty

Originally posted by: alchemize
Huh? Show me any of these "good news on several economic measures"?

About the best you can say at this point is "maybe we've hit bottom". And I don't believe that to be the case in the housing market which really is driving all of this.

Turn on your news station man... Its all over the place. I am talking about the several bits of good news over the past week that has the stock market rallying.

I didnt say we are out of it, I said things are looking better. As far as the housing market - things are cheap now, and once money starts flowing through the lenders, that should improve steadily.

Oh the housing market you say?

Yah, low prices means negative equity means you can't sell or are going to be foreclosed on.

There's another graph I can't find - one that shows all mortgage types and how there's a huge wave of stuff resetting in the next few years (more foreclosures). This one will do:
Subprime part duex

I look at every economic report released, every day, have been doing so for the last two months. The only (legit) news out there is "maybe we're hitting bottom". This is all "Oh Obama has been too negative time to be upbeat maybe if we think happy thoughts it will help it go away". Feel free to prove me wrong.

I will caveat you did say "we are hitting bottom", but your OP title sounds quite a bit different When a drunk is thrown out of a bar, cracks his knee on the sidewalk, rolls over a pile of dogshit and falls into the gutter, does he say "Things are looking pretty good right now!"

 

[retrospooty]

Originally posted by: alchemize

Originally posted by: retrospooty

Originally posted by: alchemize
Huh? Show me any of these "good news on several economic measures"?

About the best you can say at this point is "maybe we've hit bottom". And I don't believe that to be the case in the housing market which really is driving all of this.

Turn on your news station man... Its all over the place. I am talking about the several bits of good news over the past week that has the stock market rallying.

I didnt say we are out of it, I said things are looking better. As far as the housing market - things are cheap now, and once money starts flowing through the lenders, that should improve steadily.

Oh the housing market you say?

Yah, low prices means negative equity means you can't sell or are going to be foreclosed on.

There's another graph I can't find - one that shows all mortgage types and how there's a huge wave of stuff resetting in the next few years (more foreclosures). This one will do:
Subprime part duex

I look at every economic report released, every day, have been doing so for the last two months. The only (legit) news out there is "maybe we're hitting bottom". This is all "Oh Obama has been too negative time to be upbeat maybe if we think happy thoughts it will help it go away". Feel free to prove me wrong.

I will caveat you did say "we are hitting bottom", but your OP title sounds quite a bit different When a drunk is thrown out of a bar, cracks his knee on the sidewalk, rolls over a pile of dogshit and falls into the gutter, does he say "Things are looking pretty good right now!"

What is with you and twisting words... I didnt say there was any positive news on housing... I said "once money starts flowing through the lenders, that should improve steadily" and again, I also said it is far from over.

Fast forward 2-3-4 years... Where do you think we will be?

 

[StageLeft]

If the stock market has bottomed, it just means that investors no longer think that a big economy-killing depression will be here. Since the stock market is decoupled from day to day, though, it doesn't mean things won't get worse for many people, because they will. Unemployment is going to continue to go up at a solid clip, for one.

 

[retrospooty]

Originally posted by: Skoorb
If the stock market has bottomed, it just means that investors no longer think that a big economy-killing depression will be here. Since the stock market is decoupled from day to day, though, it doesn't mean things won't get worse for many people, because they will. Unemployment is going to continue to go up at a solid clip, for one.

I agree with you there... Unemployment will go up- but I think not for long. By the end of this year we will see it starting to go back down.

 

[alchemize]

Originally posted by: retrospooty

Fast forward 2-3-4 years... Where do you think we will be?

I think we start very small positive GDP in 2010 or Q4 2009. I think we have 1-2 more years of flat to small growth, then who knows. Part of me says that the mount everest of government debt is going to curse us to our own version of the "lost decade" like Japans. We have some interesting, huge demographic shifts over the next 10 years to look at also.

I think the housing bubble has a long way to go. California is going to continue to be ravaged over the next few years.

 

[Udgnim]

I'm no expert, but I think layoffs have yet to fully affect the economy.

 

[fskimospy]

Originally posted by: alchemize

Originally posted by: retrospooty

Fast forward 2-3-4 years... Where do you think we will be?

I think we start very small positive GDP in 2010 or Q4 2009. I think we have 1-2 more years of flat to small growth, then who knows. Part of me says that the mount everest of government debt is going to curse us to our own version of the "lost decade" like Japans. We have some interesting, huge demographic shifts over the next 10 years to look at also.

I think the housing bubble has a long way to go. California is going to continue to be ravaged over the next few years.

Our government debt really isn't that high you know... our debt to GDP ratio is considerably less than it has been at other points in our history.

I mean being heavily indebted is in no way good, but it's hardly an insurmountable obstacle, and most certainly doesn't mean we're headed for a lost decade because of it.

 

[Chunkee]

Originally posted by: Moonbeam
I would rather the country die than have a Democrat get any credit for saving it.

Elite Member...LOL

 

[Robor]

Originally posted by: retrospooty

Originally posted by: alchemize
Huh? Show me any of these "good news on several economic measures"?

About the best you can say at this point is "maybe we've hit bottom". And I don't believe that to be the case in the housing market which really is driving all of this.

Turn on your news station man... Its all over the place. I am talking about the several bits of good news over the past week that has the stock market rallying.

I didnt say we are out of it, I said things are looking better. As far as the housing market - things are cheap now, and once money starts flowing through the lenders, that should improve steadily.

I started looking at our condo on Zillow.com a month ago and it's dropped 2K$ over that period.

 

[Robor]

Originally posted by: Chunkee

Originally posted by: Moonbeam
I would rather the country die than have a Democrat get any credit for saving it.

Elite Member...LOL

Check your batteries, Chunkee.

 

[sactoking]

Originally posted by: shinerburke
Don't get too excited, it's just a temporary bump due to my wife going shopping over the weekend.

And I spent $139 on a new grill as well.

 

[alchemize]

Originally posted by: eskimospy

Originally posted by: alchemize

Originally posted by: retrospooty

Fast forward 2-3-4 years... Where do you think we will be?

I think we start very small positive GDP in 2010 or Q4 2009. I think we have 1-2 more years of flat to small growth, then who knows. Part of me says that the mount everest of government debt is going to curse us to our own version of the "lost decade" like Japans. We have some interesting, huge demographic shifts over the next 10 years to look at also.

I think the housing bubble has a long way to go. California is going to continue to be ravaged over the next few years.

Our government debt really isn't that high you know... our debt to GDP ratio is considerably less than it has been at other points in our history.

I mean being heavily indebted is in no way good, but it's hardly an insurmountable obstacle, and most certainly doesn't mean we're headed for a lost decade because of it.

Debt held as a percent of GDP Projections by CBO:

2008 40.8
2009 50.5
2010 54.2
2011 54.4

Since 1962, the only time it came close was in 1993 with 49.4%. It's been in the 30's for since 2000.

 

[Pocatello]

We need jobs, high paying jobs. Of course for the US to be competitive, we have to have our wages and benefits be cut , or the jobs go to China.

 

[fskimospy]

Originally posted by: alchemize

Originally posted by: eskimospy

Originally posted by: alchemize

Originally posted by: retrospooty

Fast forward 2-3-4 years... Where do you think we will be?

I think we start very small positive GDP in 2010 or Q4 2009. I think we have 1-2 more years of flat to small growth, then who knows. Part of me says that the mount everest of government debt is going to curse us to our own version of the "lost decade" like Japans. We have some interesting, huge demographic shifts over the next 10 years to look at also.

I think the housing bubble has a long way to go. California is going to continue to be ravaged over the next few years.

Our government debt really isn't that high you know... our debt to GDP ratio is considerably less than it has been at other points in our history.

I mean being heavily indebted is in no way good, but it's hardly an insurmountable obstacle, and most certainly doesn't mean we're headed for a lost decade because of it.

Debt held as a percent of GDP Projections by CBO:

2008 40.8
2009 50.5
2010 54.2
2011 54.4

Since 1962, the only time it came close was in 1993 with 49.4%. It's been in the 30's for since 2000.

Right. So we agree then? Look at our debt-GDP ratio after WW2, we did just fine. Like I said, a huge debt isn't a good thing, but it's not this Mt. Everest like you're saying either.

 

[alchemize]

Originally posted by: eskimospy

Originally posted by: alchemize

Originally posted by: eskimospy

Originally posted by: alchemize

Originally posted by: retrospooty

Fast forward 2-3-4 years... Where do you think we will be?

I think we start very small positive GDP in 2010 or Q4 2009. I think we have 1-2 more years of flat to small growth, then who knows. Part of me says that the mount everest of government debt is going to curse us to our own version of the "lost decade" like Japans. We have some interesting, huge demographic shifts over the next 10 years to look at also.

I think the housing bubble has a long way to go. California is going to continue to be ravaged over the next few years.

Our government debt really isn't that high you know... our debt to GDP ratio is considerably less than it has been at other points in our history.

I mean being heavily indebted is in no way good, but it's hardly an insurmountable obstacle, and most certainly doesn't mean we're headed for a lost decade because of it.

Debt held as a percent of GDP Projections by CBO:

2008 40.8
2009 50.5
2010 54.2
2011 54.4

Since 1962, the only time it came close was in 1993 with 49.4%. It's been in the 30's for since 2000.

Right. So we agree then? Look at our debt-GDP ratio after WW2, we did just fine. Like I said, a huge debt isn't a good thing, but it's not this Mt. Everest like you're saying either.

Debt post WW2? ah, that's because we had just, um... fought a WORLD WAR (and won) and dominated the global-economic climate for the next 20 years. We spent money on guns and butter. Now we're spending money on banks and social handouts. We're nowhere near the economic powerhouse we were in 1946 with a young, eager, hard working and well trained population.

So no, we couldn't disagree any more. We are building a Mount Everest because we aren't even thinking about the HUGE unfunded liabilities coming up via SS/Medicare in the next 30 years.

 

[dullard]

Originally posted by: eskimospy
Our government debt really isn't that high you know... our debt to GDP ratio is considerably less than it has been at other points in our history.

While technically your post is true, it is also quite misleading. Debt to GDP for history of US. Yes, the Debt to GDP ratio is less than it has been in the 1940s. But that is the ONLY time in history that it has been higher than now. So, "other points in our history" is misleading when there was only one other period this high. Also, "considerably less" is misleading since the Debt to GDP ratio wasn't dramatically higher in the 1940s. That ratio peaked around 120 and is currently around 80 and prediticted to hit 100 by the end of fiscal year 2010. That 120 level isn't "considerably" higher in my opinion.

The bigger issue is what Blackangst1 and JS80 eluded to. Look at household debt to GDP. It is now as bad as it was in the depression and possibly the highest ever (data doesn't go back into the 1800s so I can't say for sure). We have borrowed far too much money. Housing will likely have a second crash with unemployment now skyrocketing. Credit card debt is a few trillion. Sure, that isn't that much of GDP, but it goes along with car loans, student loans, mortgages, etc. All combined, people owe massive amounts of money right at the same time the government owes a lot of money. Thus, one entity can't rely on the other for help.

 

[Fern]

Economic Recovery? Things are looking pretty good right now.

Really?

I suppose this thread illustrates that what the President says, and how optimistic they act, really does affect (some) people.

As for me, I'll wait for the '09 first quarter financial numbers and unemployment and other data before deciding whether things have turned around or bottomed out.

Last week Buffet and others were talking about us heading over some 'financial cliff', then Obama talks up the economy and somehow things are all 'rosey' now?

Talk of the economy reminds me of saying I hear professional atheletes say. It goes something like "Don't believe what you read about youself (or your team) because when you're winning you're not as good as people say, and when you're losing you're not as bad as they claim either'.

So I think some of the negative stuff has been over-hyped and exaggerated, and I expect the same about some of the more positive stuff too.

Fern

 

[fskimospy]

Originally posted by: dullard

Originally posted by: eskimospy
Our government debt really isn't that high you know... our debt to GDP ratio is considerably less than it has been at other points in our history.

While technically your post is true, it is also quite misleading. Debt to GDP for history of US. Yes, the Debt to GDP ratio is less than it has been in the 1940s. But that is the ONLY time in history that it has been higher than now. So, "other points in our history" is misleading when there was only one other period this high. Also, "considerably less" is misleading since the Debt to GDP ratio wasn't dramatically higher in the 1940s. That ratio peaked around 120 and is currently around 80 and prediticted to hit 100 by the end of fiscal year 2010. That 120 level isn't "considerably" higher in my opinion.

The bigger issue is what Blackangst1 and JS80 eluded to. Look at household debt to GDP. It is now as bad as it was in the depression and possibly the highest ever (data doesn't go back into the 1800s so I can't say for sure). We have borrowed far too much money. Housing will likely have a second crash with unemployment now skyrocketing. Credit card debt is a few trillion. Sure, that isn't that much of GDP, but it goes along with car loans, student loans, mortgages, etc. All combined, people owe massive amounts of money right at the same time the government owes a lot of money. Thus, one entity can't rely on the other for help.

You don't consider a debt to GDP ratio that is 50% higher than it is now 'considerably higher'? And actual debt to GDP ratio is about 66% or so at the moment. (~$10 trillion debt to ~15 trillion GDP) So really the difference is closer to 90% greater at that time. That's a pretty extreme view not to call that 'considerable'. While you are right it was only one other period of our history, we were just fine with it.

The population didn't bail out the government's debt in the past, and there's no particular reason to think that it would need to happen in the future.

 

[OCGuy]

We are up to our eyeballs in shit. It isnt ending anytime soon.

 

[Red Dawn]

Originally posted by: Ocguy31
We are up to our eyeballs in shit. It isnt ending anytime soon.

And we have been for a few years, we just didn't know it.