Early voting in NC shows tremendous Dem support

Xavier434

Lifer
Oct 14, 2002
10,377
1
0
Remember, NC is one of those crucial states that could win the election for Obama.


Source

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Officials in early voting states are reporting record turnout with Election Day still two weeks away.

The numbers indicate a record percentage of voters could participate in the presidential election, a voting expert said.

Michael McDonald, an associate professor of politics and government at George Mason University, said at least 2.2 million people already have voted using absentee or other types of ballots that allow them to vote before the polls open on November 4.

Twenty-nine states were accepting early ballots as of Tuesday, and Oklahoma will begin accepting early ballots next week.

In North Carolina, which has developed into a battleground state, nearly 500,000 voters have cast absentee ballots, according to the State Board of Elections. Officials at the State Board of Elections expect to surpass numbers from the 2004 election, when 700,000 people voted early.

Fifty-six percent, of those voting early in North Carolina were Democrats, while 28 percent were Republicans and 16 percent were not registered as a member of a party, the elections board said.

Officials in Houston, Texas, said more than 39,000 people voted on the first day of early voting Monday, nearly double the amount for the initial day in 2004, CNN affiliate KHOU-TV in Houston reported.

Early voting has also begun in the critical battleground states of Florida, Colorado, Ohio, Nevada and Virginia.

A record number of voters lined up to vote when Florida opened its early voting stations Monday, with some waiting hours to cast their ballots. The early polling stations will remain open until the weekend before Election Day.

Jennifer Davis, spokeswoman for the Florida secretary of state's office, said several counties are reporting numbers far exceeding the 2004 turnout.

In Sarasota County, 4,700 people cast ballots Monday, compared with 2,088 on the first day four years ago, Davis said, leading officials there to believe that half the county's ballots could be cast before November 4.

In Martin, St. Lucie and Indian River counties, 6,688 people already had opted for early voting, compared with 1,088 on the first day in 2004.

The Jacksonville Times-Union reported long lines in northeast Florida, with at least two counties reporting problems with voting machines. In Duval County, 7 of 15 optical scanning machines used to count ballots had to be replaced, the newspaper reported. Video Watch as early voters face long lines in Florida »

The number of voters who already have cast their ballots could be much higher, McDonald said, because many states have not reported the number of ballots they have received so far.

Early voting suggests a record 213 million people are eligible to vote this year, said McDonald, who also works with the consortium that conducts election exit polling for broadcast and news networks.

"This will be the election in which the most people have ever voted in an American election in the history of our country," he said.

McDonald said early voting is often a good prediction of the level of turnout on Election Day, and heavy early voting indicates the turnout this year will exceed the 60 percent turnout in the 2004 election.

"We have a very good chance of beating the 64 percent turnout in the 1960 election," McDonald said. "We really could be looking at a historic election in modern American history."

That race saw the highest level of turnout in American history, except the 66 percent turnout in the 1908 presidential election.

McDonald pointed to the record number of early votes already cast in Georgia as an example of the high interest in the race.

More than 690,000 Georgians already have voted, more than the entire number that cast ballots before Election Day in 2004, McDonald said. That figure represents nearly 21 percent of all the 3.3 million presidential votes cast in 2004, he said.

"If we see this persist across all states, we really could be in for an election of historic proportions," McDonald said.

Of Georgians who have voted early, a majority, 56 percent, were women, according to the Georgia secretary of state's office. About 60 percent of those voting were white, while 35 percent voting early were black, the office said.

Turnout was so heavy in Charlotte, North Carolina, that Mecklenburg County officials are extending voting hours and opening 20 voting sites this weekend instead of the originally planned five, WSOC-TV in Charlotte reported.

Like Georgia, a majority of those voting early in North Carolina -- 56 percent -- were women, the election board said. The board also reported that 68 percent of those voting early were white, while 28 percent were black.

When early voting began in Virginia last Wednesday, election officials in Mason District, in the northern Virginia county of Fairfax, had to turn their largest meeting room into a seating area to handle the number of voters wanting to cast early ballots.

"We needed to have enough room for people, so they wouldn't go into the parking lot," Supervisor Penny Gross said.

Gross said she had expected large numbers because "I had people in my office for weeks, asking if they could vote," but said even she was caught off guard by the turnout.
"I was pleasantly surprised by the crowd, surprised at the variety and quite frankly, the numbers," she said.

 

dphantom

Diamond Member
Jan 14, 2005
4,763
326
126
Originally posted by: FuzzyBee
Why would states be releasing this data right now? What good does it do?

It helps Obama on Nov 4. If there is an impression (true or not) that the early vote is heavily in his favor, then the likelihood of more votes on Nov 4 is increased.

it's in the states interest who have dem leadership to release as much positive info as they legally can as far in advance as possible to help Obama.
 

FuzzyBee

Diamond Member
Jan 22, 2000
5,172
1
81
Originally posted by: dphantom
Originally posted by: FuzzyBee
Why would states be releasing this data right now? What good does it do?

It helps Obama on Nov 4. If there is an impression (true or not) that the early vote is heavily in his favor, then the likelihood of more votes on Nov 4 is increased.

it's in the states interest who have dem leadership to release as much positive info as they legally can as far in advance as possible to help Obama.

Personally, I think no states should release any data at all until the day after the election, no matter which party is in control. I think it taints the data collected.
 

dphantom

Diamond Member
Jan 14, 2005
4,763
326
126
Originally posted by: FuzzyBee
Originally posted by: dphantom
Originally posted by: FuzzyBee
Why would states be releasing this data right now? What good does it do?

It helps Obama on Nov 4. If there is an impression (true or not) that the early vote is heavily in his favor, then the likelihood of more votes on Nov 4 is increased.

it's in the states interest who have dem leadership to release as much positive info as they legally can as far in advance as possible to help Obama.

Personally, I think no states should release any data at all until the day after the election, no matter which party is in control. I think it taints the data collected.

I agree 100%.
 

StageLeft

No Lifer
Sep 29, 2000
70,150
5
0
That's ok, in fact good news for McCain he likes to fight from the ground and be the underdog!
 

Xavier434

Lifer
Oct 14, 2002
10,377
1
0
Originally posted by: FuzzyBee
Originally posted by: dphantom
Originally posted by: FuzzyBee
Why would states be releasing this data right now? What good does it do?

It helps Obama on Nov 4. If there is an impression (true or not) that the early vote is heavily in his favor, then the likelihood of more votes on Nov 4 is increased.

it's in the states interest who have dem leadership to release as much positive info as they legally can as far in advance as possible to help Obama.

Personally, I think no states should release any data at all until the day after the election, no matter which party is in control. I think it taints the data collected.

I'm not 100% sure how I feel about that yet, but I am leaning towards agreeing with you. Still, the data is here so we might as well use it I figure. *shrug*

If anything, I believe that this kind of release promotes early voting regardless of party affiliation and imo that is a great thing.
 

Mean MrMustard

Diamond Member
Jan 5, 2001
3,144
10
81
Originally posted by: Xavier434
Originally posted by: FuzzyBee
Originally posted by: dphantom
Originally posted by: FuzzyBee
Why would states be releasing this data right now? What good does it do?

It helps Obama on Nov 4. If there is an impression (true or not) that the early vote is heavily in his favor, then the likelihood of more votes on Nov 4 is increased.

it's in the states interest who have dem leadership to release as much positive info as they legally can as far in advance as possible to help Obama.

Personally, I think no states should release any data at all until the day after the election, no matter which party is in control. I think it taints the data collected.

I'm not 100% sure how I feel about that yet, but I am leaning towards agreeing with you. Still, the data is here so we might as well use it I figure. *shrug*

If anything, I believe that this kind of release promotes early voting regardless of party affiliation and imo that is a great thing.

If your motivation to vote depends on if your side is winning or not, do your country a favor and don't. It's these types of voters that cause the problems we have with gov't today.
 

FuzzyBee

Diamond Member
Jan 22, 2000
5,172
1
81
Originally posted by: Donny Baker

If your motivation to vote depends on if your side is winning or not, do your country a favor and don't. It's these types of voters that cause the problems we have with gov't today.

True.

If you can't motivate yourself to vote, stay home. And don't complain.
 

Xavier434

Lifer
Oct 14, 2002
10,377
1
0
Originally posted by: Donny Baker
If your motivation to vote depends on if your side is winning or not, do your country a favor and don't. It's these types of voters that cause the problems we have with gov't today.

You're misunderstanding me. The motivation is not coming from which side is winning. The motivation is coming from the masses of people rallying together to go out and vote early period. I don't see how that could possibly be a bad thing for this country. The article states that 2.2 million Americans have already gone out and voted early. Records are expected to be shattered in terms of early voting turnouts and voting turnouts period. This is wonderful news!


Originally posted by: FuzzyBee
True.

If you can't motivate yourself to vote, stay home. And don't complain.

Why is motivating others to go out and vote regardless of party affiliation a bad thing? How does it make this country worse? I can only come up with reasons as to why it makes it better.
 

techs

Lifer
Sep 26, 2000
28,561
4
0
Means nothing. Dems are so concerned about having their votes count they are disproportionitely voting early.
 

heyheybooboo

Diamond Member
Jun 29, 2007
6,278
0
0
A few points for yahs to consider ....

As backwater as we want you folks to judge North Carolina, we have a lot going on besides racin' and rasslin' (Wooooooo!)

NC is the 11th biggest state but voter turnout prior to this election has been abysmal. In 2004 we ranked 37th in turnout and that was a good year. Young adults are more likely to be binge drinkers than voters in North Carolina.

Because of historical low voter turnout we don't have substantial election 'infrastructure' to serve the voting public. We have a very efficient reporting system but are limited by the actual number of voting machines.

Approx 3.5 million people voted for President in North Carolina in 2004. In 2008 it is anticipated that this level may rise 15-20% maybe even more. Because of this voters in North Carolina are encouraged to vote early because of the distinct possibility of there being really long lines at the polls on Nov 4th. It is hoped that by election day at least 30% of those voting will have cast their ballots by voting early but that means 2.5+ million people will still have to vote on election day.

I don't have a problem with reporting turnout. It's public information and it is useful in projecting potential turnout on Nov. 4th down to the county and precinct level. If problems with long lines and waiting times are anticipated in specific areas the BOEs will be more prepared to address them. The actual 'vote' is not being reported.

As far as the turnout percentages are concerned, North Carolina is a conservative 'Blue Dog' Democrat state. We ain't afraid to cross party lines down here to throw a bum out (or elect our own rascal - lol). So while the 'registered' Republican turnout is low at this point doesn't mean a great deal - and the overwhelming majority of unaffiliated voters here tend to be conservative, anyway.

The questions are: 1) How well will 3rd party candidates poll and from whom will they take votes?; 2) Will the Democrats hold the 'Blue Dogs'?; and 3) How high will the black turnout be ???


Originally posted by: techs
Means nothing. Dems are so concerned about having their votes count they are disproportionitely voting early.

That, too. :D

We have our fair share of sneaky basstuds .
 

FuzzyBee

Diamond Member
Jan 22, 2000
5,172
1
81
Originally posted by: Xavier434

Why is motivating others to go out and vote regardless of party affiliation a bad thing? How does it make this country worse? I can only come up with reasons as to why it makes it better.

I have no problem with trying to motivate others to vote, but I find it disingenious to assume that a person that can't motivate themselves to get out and vote should be pressed for their vote to be placed.
 

ProfJohn

Lifer
Jul 28, 2006
18,251
8
0
The numbers are meaningless.

People who are highly motivated are more likely to vote early. And no doubt Obama supporters are more motivated than McCain's. And I am sure a large part of these voters are blacks who are the most motivated group in the election.
 

Xavier434

Lifer
Oct 14, 2002
10,377
1
0
Originally posted by: techs
Means nothing. Dems are so concerned about having their votes count they are disproportionitely voting early.

It means people are motivated to go out and vote which in general is a great thing.

The big question was also how many first time voters will show up which are not being taken into consideration in most polls. So far, there are many reports of high turnouts of first time voters who are mostly younger, many are in college, and they tend to support Obama.


Originally posted by: FuzzyBee
Originally posted by: Xavier434

Why is motivating others to go out and vote regardless of party affiliation a bad thing? How does it make this country worse? I can only come up with reasons as to why it makes it better.

I have no problem with trying to motivate others to vote, but I find it disingenious to assume that a person that can't motivate themselves to get out and vote should be pressed for their vote to be placed.

One cannot be motivated by others unless they are also able to motivate themselves. The difference here is that the amount one motivates them self is often not enough to actually go out and vote but with the support and motivation from others in addition to their own they go out and do it.
 

Xavier434

Lifer
Oct 14, 2002
10,377
1
0
Originally posted by: ProfJohn
The numbers are meaningless.

People who are highly motivated are more likely to vote early. And no doubt Obama supporters are more motivated than McCain's. And I am sure a large part of these voters are blacks who are the most motivated group in the election.

They are not meaningless when you consider the vast number of first time voter turn outs.
 

techs

Lifer
Sep 26, 2000
28,561
4
0
Originally posted by: Xavier434
Originally posted by: ProfJohn
The numbers are meaningless.

People who are highly motivated are more likely to vote early. And no doubt Obama supporters are more motivated than McCain's. And I am sure a large part of these voters are blacks who are the most motivated group in the election.

They are not meaningless when you consider the vast number of first time voter turn outs.

Yes, but aren't first time voters more likely to vote early after they have heard of all the registration problems?

I remember EVERY Presidential election since 1976 people were saying young, first time voters were going to come out in record numbers and become the deciding factor.
And every time youth fails. Every time.
 

GTKeeper

Golden Member
Apr 14, 2005
1,118
0
0
Originally posted by: Xavier434
Originally posted by: ProfJohn
The numbers are meaningless.

People who are highly motivated are more likely to vote early. And no doubt Obama supporters are more motivated than McCain's. And I am sure a large part of these voters are blacks who are the most motivated group in the election.

They are not meaningless when you consider the vast number of first time voter turn outs.

I think that when Obama's lead in polls is 5% its more like 6-7%. The reason is that a lot of polls do not account for new voter turn out.

Polls work by taking the existing % of Dems and Repubs and if lets say in a state like GA, you have 40% registered Dems and 60% registered Repubs (for arguments sake). Then the poll picks 40% Dems in their poll and 60% Repubs. Now, how often a poll adjusts to the up-to-date registration numbers determines the skew. Since Obama has been registering voters like crazy and the RNC is actually losing registrations, it would be good to see how often pollsters update the registration %ages.
 

Xavier434

Lifer
Oct 14, 2002
10,377
1
0
Originally posted by: techs
Originally posted by: Xavier434
Originally posted by: ProfJohn
The numbers are meaningless.

People who are highly motivated are more likely to vote early. And no doubt Obama supporters are more motivated than McCain's. And I am sure a large part of these voters are blacks who are the most motivated group in the election.

They are not meaningless when you consider the vast number of first time voter turn outs.

Yes, but aren't first time voters more likely to vote early after they have heard of all the registration problems?

I remember EVERY Presidential election since 1976 people were saying young, first time voters were going to come out in record numbers and become the deciding factor.
And every time youth fails. Every time.

Not this time. Not according to the articles I have been reading. There is a difference between predicting what might happen as opposed to reporting what is happening. This time, they are coming out in masses. Now, will it be enough to throw off the polls? Who knows, but we do know that they are coming out and we do know that Obama leads in most polls as it stands anyways.

Here is one example:

Source
 

sportage

Lifer
Feb 1, 2008
11,493
3,159
136
Watching the talking heads on larry king last night, it just seems that the republicans have lost their drive. These people in the campaigns know more than we the public know. They see much more, have more facts and sources than we on the outside get from fox, msnbc or cnn. They see what is happening from the inside. The republicans just look ill on these talk shows lately.
They go off on petty issues and just cant find one solid good talking point to boost their own hopes. If you watch them closely, I think they are telling in their expression and tone that they have already seen the writing on the wall, and they realize their side has ran out of time. Just days remaining. Hours.
And you cant help but wonder where they will start placing the blame inside their own party. More important, have they already began that process?
Just interesting to watch as the days count down.
 

umbrella39

Lifer
Jun 11, 2004
13,819
1,126
126
Originally posted by: dphantom
Originally posted by: FuzzyBee
Originally posted by: dphantom
Originally posted by: FuzzyBee
Why would states be releasing this data right now? What good does it do?

It helps Obama on Nov 4. If there is an impression (true or not) that the early vote is heavily in his favor, then the likelihood of more votes on Nov 4 is increased.

it's in the states interest who have dem leadership to release as much positive info as they legally can as far in advance as possible to help Obama.

Personally, I think no states should release any data at all until the day after the election, no matter which party is in control. I think it taints the data collected.

I agree 100%.