E-Day; The Fifth Of November, How Long Will It Be?

[SteveGrabowski]

I'm still of the opinion that Harris is better for this particular cycle, with reproductive health/rights being such a huge issue.

Men can make arguments in favor, but it hold a lot more wight coming from a woman. I doubt you'd see as big a shift in the way women are leaning if it had been Shapiro or whomever.

Whomever as in Whitmer?

 

[Dave_5k]

Just a bit more on PA and why it takes so long (as mandated by Republican voting rules designed to maximize opportunities for chaos):

PA:
In 2020, the Associated Press called the state for Biden on the Saturday after Election Day. Election officials expect the tally to take several days again this year.

Unlike many states, officials there are not allowed to begin processing absentee ballots until 7 a.m. on Election Day. The process is laborious. Workers must check that voters have provided all necessary information, then remove the ballots from the envelopes, unfold them, ensure they haven’t been damaged and feed them into voting tabulators.

Pennsylvania has arcane rules that can lead to challenges over ballots. Absentee ballots must be placed in a secrecy envelope that is then placed in a mailing envelope. The envelopes must be properly dated. If there are mistakes, the ballots may not be counted.
(excerpt thanks to Washington Post)

 

[MrPickins]

Whomever as in Whitmer?

Ahh, you've got me there, but her name recognition is nowhere near Harris'. Like it or not, the incumbent has an edge. Besides, she's done great in the polls compared to Biden.

Really, though, this just feels like Bernie bros talk from '16. The pick is made, and complaining about it before the election is really only helping the other candidate.

 

[SteveGrabowski]

Ahh, you've got me there, but her name recognition is nowhere near Harris'. Like it or not, the incumbent has an edge. Besides, she's done great in the polls compared to Biden.

Really, though, this just feels like Bernie bros talk from '16. The pick is made, and complaining about it before the election is really only helping the other candidate.

I don't care if Harris loses GA or NC by less than Whitmer, I care that Whitmer would win the rust belt which is where the presidency is decided. Mass appeal is way less important than targeted appeal for winning the electoral college.

 

[manly]

Ahh, you've got me there, but her name recognition is nowhere near Harris'. Like it or not, the incumbent has an edge. Besides, she's done great in the polls compared to Biden.

Really, though, this just feels like Bernie bros talk from '16. The pick is made, and bitching about it before the election is really only helping the other candidate.

I know what you mean, but that depends on how you look at things. Biden 2024 was cooked, so he had no choice but to step aside. So yeah our prospects shot up since that decision.

Biden 2020 was up about 6 points in the final polls IIRC. Harris is about +2, so we need polling error IN OUR FAVOR just to win the EC. In 2020, the polling error worked against Biden but he still had enough cushion to squeeze out the battleground states.

I don't agree that this is Bernie bros BS from 2016. Considering that most of the "fundamentals" seemingly favor the incumbent administration, it would be a bitter defeat if Harris doesn't win. All @SteveGrabowski is saying is that IF that happens (and he sounds convinced), it will be because our candidate wasn't good enough. Personally I feel she's run a good campaign, so I can't fault her for Hillary 2016 incompetence. Even if Steve was "bitching" about Harris, how exactly does that aid the opponent? Does he have a big enough bullhorn in PA or MI to swing the election? His vote in TX won't even matter but is he staying home to protest our candidate?

 

[SteveGrabowski]

Personally I feel she's run a good campaign, so I can't fault her for Hillary 2016 incompetence. Even if Steve was "bitching" about Harris, how exactly does that aid the opponent? Does he have a big enough bullhorn in PA or MI to swing the election? His vote in TX won't even matter but is he staying home to protest our candidate?

I think she has run a terrible campaign. A good campaign would be shouting from the rooftops that a Harris presidency ensures every senior on Medicare Part D (or C with drug coverage) will have his out of pocket costs capped at $2000 per year for drugs. I mean WTF is a bigger issue for seniors, the group who votes the most, than ensuring drug costs don't bankrupt them? A good campaign would be shouting from the rooftops that Trump literally defunded Social Security in 2020, promised he would make it permanent in his 2020 election platform, and will kill Social Security with no way for it to ever be funded again short of the Democrats getting 60 senators again at some point. Most voters have been paying into Social Security for many many years, decades even. And Trump is gunning to end that.

 

[SteveGrabowski]

Ahh, you've got me there, but her name recognition is nowhere near Harris'. Like it or not, the incumbent has an edge. Besides, she's done great in the polls compared to Biden.

Really, though, this just feels like Bernie bros talk from '16. The pick is made, and complaining about it before the election is really only helping the other candidate.

Also gotta disagree with the Bernie bros talk. Bernie would have been a genuinely great president. Shapiro and Whitmer don't really represent my politics (Bernie is much closer); they represent a hack to try to win the undemocratic electoral college while also avoiding the stink of Biden's support of Netenyahu's genocide of the Palestinians.

 

[MrPickins]

I know what you mean, but that depends on how you look at things. Biden 2024 was cooked, so he had no choice but to step aside. So yeah our prospects shot up since that decision.

Biden 2020 was up about 6 points in the final polls IIRC. Harris is about +2, so we need polling error IN OUR FAVOR just to win the EC. In 2020, the polling error worked against Biden but he still had enough cushion to squeeze out the battleground states.

I don't agree that this is Bernie bros BS from 2016. Considering that most of the "fundamentals" seemingly favor the incumbent administration, it would be a bitter defeat if Harris doesn't win. All @SteveGrabowski is saying is that IF that happens (and he sounds convinced), it will be because our candidate wasn't good enough. Personally I feel she's run a good campaign, so I can't fault her for Hillary 2016 incompetence. Even if Steve was "bitching" about Harris, how exactly does that aid the opponent? Does he have a big enough bullhorn in PA or MI to swing the election? His vote in TX won't even matter but is he staying home to protest our candidate?

Note that I immediately edited my post to remove "bitching"; that was too aggressive.

You're taking this far too seriously. I was only drawing a comparison as I saw it. At this point, the decision is made; I don't see how arguing about it on a public forum can do anything but make people who are on the fence second-guess their vote. We can discuss at length after the election but doing that now is just defeatist talk, IMO.

 

[MrPickins]

Also gotta disagree with the Bernie bros talk. Bernie would have been a genuinely great president. Shapiro and Whitmer don't really represent my politics (Bernie is much closer); they represent a hack to try to win the undemocratic electoral college while also avoiding the stink of Biden's support of Netenyahu's genocide of the Palestinians.

Nothing I say should be a knock on Bernie. I think he would have been a good president (even if he's borderline unelectable with the commie spin the right would put out). I do have a strong dislike for the Bernie Bros of '16, though. I feel that they were a solid factor in why we're in this situation right now.

I guess we'll have to agree to disagree on how much better those two would do vs Harris.

 

[manly]

I think she has run a terrible campaign. A good campaign would be shouting from the rooftops that a Harris presidency ensures every senior on Medicare Part D (or C with drug coverage) will have his out of pocket costs capped at $2000 per year for drugs. I mean WTF is a bigger issue for seniors, the group who votes the most, than ensuring drug costs don't bankrupt them? A good campaign would be shouting from the rooftops that Trump literally defunded Social Security in 2020, promised he would make it permanent in his 2020 election platform, and will kill Social Security with no way for it to ever be funded again short of the Democrats getting 60 senators again at some point. Most voters have been paying into Social Security for many many years, decades even. And Trump is gunning to end that.

If I was running a campaign, I'd hire you. But Dems have put the facts out there and made our arguments across a spectrum of issues. At the end of the day, a lot of morons will vote their vibes, or because Kamala is a socialist with the wrong gonads and skin complexion. Our hope rests on a sliver of convincible voters in just a few states to do the right thing, however they arrive at that decision. I'm not as pessimistic as you are, but like I said, I'm prepared for the worst.

After all these decades, voters still don't realize Repugs want to "starve the beast?" Are they even dumber than we thought?

I still don't see how Steve complaining about Harris/Walz on ATPN hurts our chances, but I'll leave it at that and move on.

 

[Lost_in_the_HTTP]

I'm not sure I could support Gretchmer.

 

[SteveGrabowski]

Nothing I say should be a knock on Bernie. I think he would have been a good president (even if he's borderline unelectable with the commie spin the right would put out). I do have a strong dislike for the Bernie Bros of '16, though. I feel that they were a solid factor in why we're in this situation right now.

I guess we'll have to agree to disagree on how much better those two would do vs Harris.

IDK there were likely plenty of so-called Bernie Bros who were really just Trumpers who hated Clinton. I voted Bernie in the last two primaries but in the generals still held my nose and voted for candidates I don't like such as Clinton, Harris, and my corrupt representative Cuellar even though the DNC legitimately pushed his fat right wing ass barely over the finish line in the 2022 primaries over a great candidate (Jessica Cisneros).

 

[MrPickins]

IDK there were likely plenty of so-called Bernie Bros who were really just Trumpers who hated Clinton. I voted Bernie in the last two primaries but in the generals still held my nose and voted for candidates I don't like such as Clinton, Harris, and my corrupt representative Cuellar even though the DNC legitimately pushed his fat right wing ass barely over the finish line in the 2022 primaries over a great candidate (Jessica Cisneros).

You're one of the good ones, for sure. 👍

Cisneros would have been so much better, and not just because Cuellar is a pos. I was watching that primary, even though I'm in a different TX district.

 

[WilliamM2]

I'm not sure I could support Gretchmer.

She clearly stated when she ran for Governor in 2022 that she would finish her term through 2026, she had things to get done. And she has done a good job here in Michigan of fixing the roads, and protecting women's rights among other things.

But I am curious, why wouldn't you support her? Even against Trump?

 

[UNCjigga]

The smart people I’ve talked to (I.e. some of whom have official roles with a campaign or their law firms) say we should have a definitive answer no later than Wednesday noontime…unless some serious shit hits the fan (I.e. state legislature interference, armed insurrection, SCOTUS interference or some other doomsday scenario.).

 

[UNCjigga]

FYI I made a silent vow to do a dry November until Thanksgiving Eve but I will likely break that vow this week.

 

[Lost_in_the_HTTP]

The smart people I’ve talked to (I.e. some of whom have official roles with a campaign or their law firms) say we should have a definitive answer no later than Wednesday noontime…unless some serious shit hits the fan (I.e. state legislature interference, armed insurrection, SCOTUS interference or some other doomsday scenario.).

If the 'Pubs keep the House, Mikey has already vowed not to allow certification in January.

They need to lose there also.

 

[iRONic]

If the 'Pubs keep the House, Mikey has already vowed not to allow certification in January.

They need to lose there also.

Can you drop a link for that here? Thank you

 

[Lost_in_the_HTTP]

He and Donny have 'a secret plan' ....

It's been posted here a few times .... somewhere.

Johnson, Jeffries and Raskin duel over certifying 2024 election - Axios​

Today House Speaker MikeJohnson (R-La.) and Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) are at each other's throats over which party can truly be trusted to certify the 2024 election, Axios has learned.. Why it matters: Lawmakers in both parties, including Johnson himself, have floated conditions for certifying the results if the opposing party wins. Johnson enraged Democrats in September by saying ..

That "Little Secret" Between Trump and Johnson? Here's What It Could ...​

5 days ago Referencing a "secret plan" he has with Speaker of the House Mike... The first step in such a process is to get Republicans in states Trump loses to contest the certification of their own ...

Speaker Johnson appears to confirm a 'secret' election plan ... - PBS​

6 days ago Politics Oct 29, 2024 9:29 AM EDT. House SpeakerMike Johnson appeared to confirm Donald Trump's claim Sunday that Republicans have a "secret" plan to win the election. "By definition, a ...

 

[Pens1566]

Whitmer has the charisma of a plastic bag. She's not winning anything at the national level.

 

[hal2kilo]

Just a bit more on PA and why it takes so long (as mandated by Republican voting rules designed to maximize opportunities for chaos):

PA:
In 2020, the Associated Press called the state for Biden on the Saturday after Election Day. Election officials expect the tally to take several days again this year.

Unlike many states, officials there are not allowed to begin processing absentee ballots until 7 a.m. on Election Day. The process is laborious. Workers must check that voters have provided all necessary information, then remove the ballots from the envelopes, unfold them, ensure they haven’t been damaged and feed them into voting tabulators.

Pennsylvania has arcane rules that can lead to challenges over ballots. Absentee ballots must be placed in a secrecy envelope that is then placed in a mailing envelope. The envelopes must be properly dated. If there are mistakes, the ballots may not be counted.
(excerpt thanks to Washington Post)

You mean they do no verification process on the ballots as they come in? i.e. check the sig on the envelope, ect. What a constipated system.

 

[Dave_5k]

You mean they do no verification process on the ballots as they come in? i.e. check the sig on the envelope, ect. What a constipated system.

Correct. PA, as mandated by their (R) legislature, shall not begin to process absentee or mail-in early ballots, until after 7am on election day. And those ballots are opened and processed, one by one, in front of a bipartisan canvassing board in each county that can challenge every single ballot.

Edit: Most counties apparently do preliminary processing to reduce work on election day which is apparently allowed (e.g. checking handwritten date on outer envelope to disqualify ballot immediately if missing or inaccurate, and some check weight of ballot to see if the mandatory secrecy envelope is included, which also immediately disqualifies the ballot if missing). They just can't actually open the envelope.

Then about 1/2 of the counties do nothing with the information that they disenfranchised the voter for what may be minor technical error (missing date, or writing incorrectly the date of election rather than date of mailing), as many counties provide no option or process to allow for corrections. Other counties do collect the list of disqualified voters to list online, but still don't proactively contact the voters.

 

[NWRMidnight]

If the 'Pubs keep the House, Mikey has already vowed not to allow certification in January.

They need to lose there also.

Mike has no direct roll in election certification, aka he has no authority to not allow it. All he can do is try to raise legal challanges over the newly emplemented election reform act, and/or try to influence other house members to vote no on certification, which I doubt he has enough influence to do succeed in enough votes to not certify. The certification is over seen by the Vice President, which means Harris has more control over the certification of the election than Mike has.

 

[Lost_in_the_HTTP]

Will today end before February?

 

[Paratus]

I think she has run a terrible campaign. A good campaign would be shouting from the rooftops that a Harris presidency ensures every senior on Medicare Part D (or C with drug coverage) will have his out of pocket costs capped at $2000 per year for drugs. I mean WTF is a bigger issue for seniors, the group who votes the most, than ensuring drug costs don't bankrupt them? A good campaign would be shouting from the rooftops that Trump literally defunded Social Security in 2020, promised he would make it permanent in his 2020 election platform, and will kill Social Security with no way for it to ever be funded again short of the Democrats getting 60 senators again at some point. Most voters have been paying into Social Security for many many years, decades even. And Trump is gunning to end that.

Well my wife just saw a billboard saying Harris will protect SS. This was in TX of course and I don’t think we’ve ever seen Dem presidential political billboards in TX before.