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Dullard's College Football - Week 9

dullard

dullard

Elite Member
Texas is definately in #1 in both of my ratings.

I got the new 1A and 1AA teams fixed this week, thanks Sciencewhiz.

Most of the top 25 movement was in the Big 12:

Large movers up: Colorado, Missouri, Oklahoma
Large movers down: Tennessee, Auburn, Texas Tech, Nebraska

Place , Win Rating , Score Rating , W , L , Team name
01 , 69.6 , 71.3 , 7 , 0 , Texas
02 , 68.8 , 54.8 , 7 , 0 , Alabama
03 , 66.4 , 61.5 , 7 , 0 , Virginia Tech
04 , 66.4 , 53.0 , 7 , 0 , Georgia
05 , 65.2 , 68.0 , 7 , 0 , Southern Cal
06 , 64.9 , 62.7 , 7 , 1 , Penn State
07 , 63.0 , 55.7 , 5 , 1 , LSU
08 , 62.0 , 54.5 , 7 , 0 , UCLA
09 , 61.5 , 51.1 , 7 , 1 , Wisconsin
10 , 58.8 , 53.7 , 7 , 1 , Oregon
11 , 57.1 , 57.5 , 5 , 1 , Miami FL
12 , 57.0 , 43.5 , 6 , 1 , West Virginia
13 , 56.8 , 61.6 , 5 , 2 , Ohio State
14 , 56.2 , 50.2 , 6 , 1 , Boston College
15 , 55.5 , 53.0 , 5 , 2 , Minnesota
16 , 55.5 , 49.0 , 5 , 2 , Northwestern
17 , 54.6 , 51.3 , 6 , 1 , Florida St
18 , 54.2 , 46.1 , 7 , 1 , TCU
19 , 54.1 , 49.3 , 5 , 2 , Florida
20 , 53.6 , 51.5 , 5 , 2 , Colorado
21 , 53.1 , 58.4 , 5 , 2 , Notre Dame
22 , 52.5 , 52.5 , 5 , 3 , Michigan
23 , 51.4 , 41.5 , 5 , 2 , Missouri
24 , 50.9 , 43.6 , 3 , 3 , Tennessee
25 , 50.7 , 42.2 , 4 , 3 , Oklahoma
26 , 50.5 , 41.6 , 5 , 1 , UTEP
27 , 49.7 , 51.7 , 5 , 2 , Auburn
28 , 48.6 , 43.1 , 4 , 2 , Georgia Tech
29 , 48.3 , 43.2 , 5 , 2 , Texas A&M
30 , 47.8 , 47.3 , 5 , 2 , Louisville
31 , 47.4 , 44.1 , 6 , 1 , Texas Tech
32 , 47.3 , 36.5 , 4 , 3 , South Carolina
33 , 47.0 , 40.3 , 5 , 2 , Nebraska
34 , 46.4 , 40.4 , 4 , 2 , Southern Miss
35 , 46.0 , 39.9 , 4 , 3 , Maryland
36 , 45.4 , 44.4 , 4 , 3 , Clemson
37 , 44.8 , 35.7 , 4 , 3 , Oregon St
38 , 44.4 , 48.4 , 3 , 4 , Arizona St
39 , 44.3 , 37.4 , 4 , 2 , Stanford
40 , 43.5 , 47.2 , 4 , 3 , Michigan St
41 , 43.3 , 50.5 , 5 , 1 , Fresno St
42 , 43.2 , 35.6 , 3 , 3 , North Carolina
43 , 42.7 , 33.9 , 5 , 3 , Tulsa
44 , 42.6 , 31.7 , 5 , 2 , Boise St
45 , 42.2 , 37.7 , 4 , 3 , Colorado St
46 , 42.2 , 46.7 , 6 , 2 , California
47 , 41.8 , 34.6 , 5 , 3 , New Mexico
48 , 41.4 , 43.6 , 5 , 3 , Iowa
49 , 41.2 , 37.5 , 4 , 3 , Virginia
50 , 40.3 , 43.8 , 3 , 3 , South Florida
51 , 40.1 , 31.5 , 4 , 3 , Memphis
52 , 39.5 , 30.8 , 4 , 4 , Vanderbilt
53 , 39.2 , 38.7 , 6 , 1 , Toledo
54 , 39.2 , 33.1 , 4 , 3 , Indiana
55 , 39.1 , 30.1 , 4 , 3 , Central Florida
56 , 39.1 , 39.6 , 4 , 3 , Iowa St
57 , 38.8 , 34.1 , 4 , 3 , Houston
58 , 38.1 , 27.1 , 4 , 3 , Kansas St
59 , 37.5 , 30.3 , 4 , 3 , Central Michigan
60 , 37.2 , 34.5 , 4 , 3 , Baylor
61 , 37.2 , 33.0 , 4 , 2 , Navy
62 , 37.1 , 34.9 , 5 , 2 , Rutgers
63 , 36.8 , 33.9 , 3 , 4 , Brigham Young
64 , 36.0 , 34.1 , 4 , 4 , Wyoming
65 , 35.6 , 31.4 , 3 , 5 , Wake Forest
66 , 34.6 , 28.4 , 3 , 4 , Mississippi
67 , 34.3 , 37.8 , 4 , 4 , Pittsburgh
68 , 34.2 , 35.7 , 4 , 3 , Miami OH
69 , 33.6 , 29.4 , 3 , 4 , Kansas
70 , 33.1 , 23.6 , 3 , 4 , Marshall
71 , 32.9 , 23.0 , 4 , 3 , Bowling Green
72 , 32.8 , 34.5 , 2 , 5 , Arkansas
73 , 32.6 , 35.2 , 2 , 4 , North Carolina St
74 , 32.0 , 24.5 , 4 , 2 , Nevada
75 , 31.7 , 20.4 , 3 , 4 , Oklahoma St
76 , 31.7 , 18.3 , 3 , 4 , Ohio U.
77 , 31.3 , 23.7 , 3 , 4 , Cincinnati
78 , 31.1 , 35.3 , 2 , 5 , Purdue
79 , 31.0 , 35.5 , 4 , 3 , Northern Illinois
80 , 30.3 , 23.8 , 3 , 4 , East Carolina
81 , 30.2 , 25.3 , 3 , 3 , Louisiana Tech
82 , 29.8 , 37.6 , 3 , 4 , Washington St
83 , 29.8 , 29.0 , 4 , 4 , Utah
84 , 27.4 , 22.3 , 2 , 5 , Mississippi St
85 , 27.2 , 19.3 , 4 , 3 , Western Michigan
86 , 27.1 , 20.5 , 4 , 3 , Arkansas St
87 , 26.9 , 13.3 , 3 , 4 , Louisiana-Monroe
88 , 26.6 , 28.0 , 3 , 5 , San Diego St
89 , 26.5 , 19.9 , 2 , 5 , Illinois
90 , 25.7 , 20.2 , 3 , 4 , Hawai`i
91 , 25.6 , 33.8 , 4 , 3 , Connecticut
92 , 25.6 , 28.0 , 3 , 5 , Air Force
93 , 25.4 , 25.2 , 3 , 4 , Alabama-Birmingham
94 , 25.2 , 8.8 , 3 , 4 , Troy
95 , 23.6 , 21.9 , 3 , 5 , Eastern Michigan
96 , 23.5 , 27.7 , 1 , 6 , Washington
97 , 21.6 , 18.6 , 2 , 4 , Tulane
98 , 21.6 , 15.4 , 3 , 4 , Akron
99 , 21.5 , 19.0 , 2 , 6 , SMU
100 , 21.5 , 17.8 , 2 , 4 , Middle Tennessee St
101 , 21.1 , 18.3 , 1 , 5 , Kentucky
102 , 19.0 , 2.7 , 2 , 4 , North Texas
103 , 18.6 , 8.5 , 1 , 6 , Ball St
104 , 18.3 , 13.5 , 1 , 7 , Duke
105 , 17.9 , 15.1 , 2 , 5 , Louisiana-Lafayette
106 , 17.8 , 17.8 , 1 , 6 , Army
107 , 17.6 , 26.3 , 1 , 6 , Arizona
108 , 16.1 , 8.5 , 0 , 6 , Rice
109 , 15.4 , 8.1 , 2 , 4 , Utah St
110 , 15.2 , 21.0 , 1 , 6 , Syracuse
111 , 13.9 , 4.1 , 0 , 8 , Temple
112 , 12.5 , 10.8 , 2 , 6 , UNLV
113 , 11.7 , 7.6 , 0 , 7 , New Mexico St
114 , 10.9 , 7.7 , 1 , 7 , Florida Atlantic
115 , 8.1 , 0.0 , 1 , 5 , Florida Int'l
116 , 6.6 , 10.4 , 1 , 6 , Kent St
117 , 6.3 , 5.0 , 1 , 6 , Idaho
118 , 6.3 , 6.3 , 1 , 6 , San Jose St
119 , 0.0 , 0.7 , 0 , 7 , Buffalo
01 , 35.7 , 26.5 , 5 , 2 , Appalachian St
02 , 33.7 , 16.5 , 7 , 1 , Furman
03 , 33.1 , 30.7 , 6 , 1 , New Hampshire
04 , 30.9 , 22.4 , 5 , 2 , Montana
05 , 28.8 , 22.1 , 6 , 1 , Massachusetts
06 , 27.5 , 25.0 , 5 , 2 , Cal Poly SLO
07 , 26.8 , 17.9 , 6 , 1 , Western Kentucky
08 , 26.4 , 13.2 , 5 , 1 , Brown
09 , 25.6 , 20.4 , 6 , 1 , Youngstown St
10 , 24.7 , 19.5 , 5 , 3 , Portland St
11 , 24.4 , 23.8 , 5 , 2 , William & Mary
12 , 24.0 , 20.8 , 5 , 3 , Georgia Southern
13 , 23.4 , 16.1 , 8 , 0 , Hampton
14 , 23.0 , 16.3 , 4 , 3 , Montana St
15 , 22.5 , 8.7 , 4 , 2 , Princeton
16 , 22.1 , 10.4 , 4 , 3 , Richmond
17 , 21.7 , 21.4 , 4 , 3 , UC-Davis
18 , 21.2 , 8.7 , 3 , 3 , Western Carolina
19 , 21.1 , 2.5 , 4 , 3 , Wofford
20 , 20.1 , 29.3 , 5 , 3 , Illinois St
21 , 19.6 , 8.4 , 5 , 2 , Colgate
22 , 19.5 , -2.8 , 5 , 3 , Chattanooga
23 , 18.8 , 7.8 , 3 , 2 , McNeese St
24 , 18.8 , 16.6 , 5 , 1 , Pennsylvania
25 , 18.5 , 12.7 , 5 , 2 , Eastern Illinois
26 , 18.0 , 12.4 , 4 , 3 , Delaware
27 , 17.1 , 0.7 , 5 , 2 , Lafayette
28 , 16.8 , 8.3 , 3 , 3 , Northwestern St
29 , 16.7 , 14.1 , 5 , 2 , Lehigh
30 , 16.7 , 2.6 , 3 , 3 , Harvard
31 , 15.4 , 20.8 , 4 , 3 , James Madison
32 , 15.2 , 12.0 , 5 , 2 , South Carolina St
33 , 14.8 , 10.7 , 4 , 3 , Idaho St
34 , 14.5 , 17.8 , 4 , 3 , Eastern Washington
35 , 14.4 , -0.2 , 2 , 5 , The Citadel
36 , 13.7 , 6.0 , 5 , 3 , Holy Cross
37 , 13.0 , 8.2 , 4 , 4 , Rhode Island
38 , 12.9 , 10.6 , 4 , 3 , Hofstra
39 , 12.7 , 0.6 , 5 , 3 , Towson
40 , 12.4 , 10.7 , 5 , 1 , Grambling St
41 , 12.2 , 7.4 , 4 , 4 , Eastern Kentucky
42 , 12.0 , 14.2 , 4 , 3 , Northern Iowa
43 , 11.8 , 8.0 , 4 , 4 , Weber St
44 , 11.6 , 10.4 , 5 , 2 , Southern Illinois
45 , 11.5 , 3.3 , 3 , 4 , Villanova
46 , 10.7 , 0.7 , 5 , 3 , Delaware St
47 , 9.2 , 1.3 , 4 , 3 , Stephen F. Austin
48 , 9.2 , -1.3 , 4 , 3 , Tennessee-Martin
49 , 8.0 , -4.0 , 8 , 0 , St John's MN
50 , 8.0 , 3.2 , 7 , 1 , San Diego
51 , 7.9 , 8.1 , 6 , 1 , Alabama St
52 , 7.3 , 4.5 , 4 , 4 , Jacksonville St
53 , 6.3 , -8.4 , 4 , 4 , Samford
54 , 5.5 , 5.6 , 2 , 4 , Sam Houston St
55 , 4.6 , 11.4 , 2 , 3 , Nicholls St
56 , 4.5 , -6.6 , 3 , 5 , Elon
57 , 4.4 , -3.0 , 2 , 4 , Dartmouth
58 , 3.7 , 0.1 , 7 , 1 , Dayton
59 , 2.0 , 4.6 , 2 , 4 , Yale
60 , 1.8 , -1.8 , 2 , 6 , Sacramento St
61 , 1.5 , -4.7 , 2 , 5 , Maine
62 , 1.5 , -0.2 , 1 , 6 , Northeastern
63 , 1.1 , -8.6 , 3 , 4 , Florida A&M
64 , -0.7 , -4.1 , 5 , 2 , Bethune-Cookman
65 , -0.8 , -6.2 , 5 , 2 , Monmouth NJ
66 , -1.6 , -14.1 , 7 , 1 , Morehead St
67 , -1.6 , -6.5 , 3 , 4 , Gardner-Webb
68 , -2.2 , -7.7 , 5 , 2 , Alabama A&M
69 , -2.6 , -15.3 , 2 , 4 , Columbia
70 , -3.1 , -7.1 , 3 , 5 , VMI
71 , -3.3 , -3.0 , 2 , 5 , Northern Arizona
72 , -4.2 , -12.5 , 4 , 3 , Howard
73 , -4.3 , -8.3 , 2 , 6 , Western Illinois
74 , -4.6 , -19.0 , 5 , 3 , Central Conn St
75 , -5.1 , -15.9 , 4 , 3 , Duquesne
76 , -6.7 , -12.6 , 1 , 5 , Southern Utah
77 , -7.0 , -20.6 , 4 , 3 , Marist
78 , -8.1 , -13.2 , 4 , 3 , Alcorn St
79 , -8.8 , -14.7 , 3 , 5 , North Carolina A&T
80 , -9.2 , -16.8 , 2 , 5 , Tennessee Tech
81 , -9.5 , -17.3 , 1 , 7 , Liberty
82 , -10.4 , -8.6 , 3 , 4 , Drake
83 , -10.4 , -13.5 , 4 , 3 , Mississippi Valley St
84 , -10.8 , -12.3 , 1 , 6 , Murray St
85 , -12.0 , -22.9 , 4 , 4 , Charleston Southern
86 , -12.3 , -16.4 , 0 , 8 , Indiana St
87 , -13.0 , -24.8 , 5 , 3 , Wagner
88 , -13.2 , -25.6 , 3 , 4 , Stony Brook
89 , -13.3 , -18.8 , 5 , 2 , Georgetown KY
90 , -14.1 , -19.9 , 2 , 5 , Tennessee St
91 , -15.3 , -23.2 , 1 , 6 , Bucknell
92 , -15.4 , -15.1 , 2 , 5 , Jackson St
93 , -15.6 , -24.0 , 2 , 5 , Albany NY
94 , -16.9 , -22.2 , 2 , 6 , Morgan St
95 , -17.5 , -14.3 , 2 , 4 , Southern U.
96 , -17.9 , -18.8 , 0 , 7 , SE Missouri St
97 , -18.2 , -29.1 , 3 , 3 , Jacksonville FL
98 , -18.7 , -24.0 , 0 , 7 , Fordham
99 , -20.2 , -15.3 , 1 , 5 , Texas Southern
100 , -21.5 , -19.5 , 1 , 6 , Arkansas-Pine Bluff
101 , -21.5 , -30.6 , 2 , 5 , Sacred Heart
102 , -21.9 , -22.4 , 1 , 6 , Norfolk St
103 , -22.0 , -28.1 , 2 , 4 , Prairie View A&M
104 , -25.3 , -27.4 , 2 , 5 , Robert Morris
105 , -27.6 , -32.4 , 3 , 5 , Davidson
106 , -29.8 , -46.0 , 3 , 4 , Iona
107 , -30.3 , -34.7 , 2 , 5 , St Francis PA
108 , -33.5 , -49.1 , 2 , 6 , Valparaiso
109 , -33.6 , -46.5 , 2 , 6 , Austin Peay
110 , -36.0 , -51.0 , 1 , 6 , St Peter's
111 , -37.7 , -48.1 , 0 , 7 , Savannah St
112 , -37.8 , -48.5 , 2 , 6 , La Salle
113 , -44.9 , -57.3 , 0 , 8 , Butler
 
Heh....there's no way that I think Alabama is better than USC right now but...

ROLL TIDE!

LOL
 
Originally posted by: Queasy
Heh....there's no way that I think Alabama is better than USC right now but...
Click to expand...
I'd agree with you. I perfer the score rating myself. That puts Alabama at #9 and USC at #2 with a huge lead over the #3 team.

 
Originally posted by: Mojoed
IF BC beats VT in two days, anyone have any speculations as to where that would rank BC next week?
Click to expand...
Well, I just ran that test in my program. I pretended that BC won by 7. For the most part, only BC and VT moved in the ratings, no other team was greatly affected. Net effect: VT dropped in the win ratings from #3 to #9, BC rose in the win ratings from #14 to #10.

Of course, a bigger than 7 point win may put BC over VT in my program. Other BCS computers, especially Sagarin, behave similar to mine.
 
Originally posted by: Preyhunter
Texas Tech at 31st? You're stoned.
Click to expand...
1AA opponents anyone? Almost had 3 this year if Florida Int'l hadn't moved up recently to 1A. Tech's claim to fame so far this year is beating a 5/2 (nearly 4/3) struggling Nebraska team by 3 points.
 
I always like your ranking Dullard. Weird to see Cal Poly at #6 in your 1AA rankings after losing to Montana. They deserve it though, great team. And extremely weird to see E. Washington at #34, especially after beating Montana last week.
 
wow, ucla is so close to usc hehe, its gonna be fun if both are undefeated by the time they play, usc is like the only positive sports thing going for l.a for the past couple of years , everything else sucks (dodgers, lakers, clipper)

 
Originally posted by: dullard

1AA opponents anyone? Almost had 3 this year if Florida Int'l hadn't moved up recently to 1A. Tech's claim to fame so far this year is beating a 5/2 (nearly 4/3) struggling Nebraska team by 3 points.
Click to expand...

And beat the 1AA teams soundly, just as they should have. They also put 669 passing yards on the (at the time) 9th ranked pass defense in the nation (K State). If they rate only 31st, Texas wouldn't have leapfrogged into the #1 spot.

Your proggie's whacked. I think it has a virus.
 
Originally posted by: Preyhunter
Originally posted by: dullard

1AA opponents anyone? Almost had 3 this year if Florida Int'l hadn't moved up recently to 1A. Tech's claim to fame so far this year is beating a 5/2 (nearly 4/3) struggling Nebraska team by 3 points.
Click to expand...

And beat the 1AA teams soundly, just as they should have. They also put 669 passing yards on the (at the time) 9th ranked pass defense in the nation (K State). If they rate only 31st, Texas wouldn't have leapfrogged into the #1 spot.

Your proggie's whacked. I think it has a virus.
Click to expand...

Speak for yourself :disgust:
 
Originally posted by: Preyhunter
Originally posted by: dullard

1AA opponents anyone? Almost had 3 this year if Florida Int'l hadn't moved up recently to 1A. Tech's claim to fame so far this year is beating a 5/2 (nearly 4/3) struggling Nebraska team by 3 points.
Click to expand...

And beat the 1AA teams soundly, just as they should have. They also put 669 passing yards on the (at the time) 9th ranked pass defense in the nation (K State). If they rate only 31st, Texas wouldn't have leapfrogged into the #1 spot.
Click to expand...

It's easy for Kansas State to pretend then have a good pass defense when the best passing team they faced before TT was new to 1-A, Florida Atlantic.
 
Originally posted by: sciencewhiz
It's easy for Kansas State to pretend then have a good pass defense when the best passing team they faced before TT was new to 1-A, Florida Atlantic.
Click to expand...
Exactly, the standard passing offense/defense and rushing offense/defense stats are worthless at best and highly misleading at worst.

If you play mostly rushing teams at the beginning of the season, guess what? You suddenly are #1 for passing defense. Does that mean you have a good passing defense? Not necessarilly, and probably not even true (since you have no experience doing it). It simply means you didn't play many passing teams.

I've been thinking of modeling that too someday. I just don't want to spend the time or the money to get the stats.

 
Originally posted by: dullard
Originally posted by: sciencewhiz
It's easy for Kansas State to pretend then have a good pass defense when the best passing team they faced before TT was new to 1-A, Florida Atlantic.
Click to expand...
Exactly, the standard passing offense/defense and rushing offense/defense stats are worthless at best and highly misleading at worst.

If you play mostly rushing teams at the beginning of the season, guess what? You suddenly are #1 for passing defense. Does that mean you have a good passing defense? Not necessarilly, and probably not even true (since you have no experience doing it). It simply means you didn't play many passing teams.

I've been thinking of modeling that too someday. I just don't want to spend the time or the money to get the stats.
Click to expand...

that would explain usc's rank in pass defense, i am not saying they dont have problems with their secondary and all, but almost all teams in pac-10 play pass predominantly
 
Originally posted by: kalster
that would explain usc's rank in pass defense, i am not saying they dont have problems with their secondary and all, but almost all teams in pac-10 play pass predominantly
Click to expand...

I think 4 injured CBs has more to do with USC's poor pass defense.
 
Originally posted by: JohnCU
Why don't you have Coastal Carolina in your 1AA?
Click to expand...

Looks like there are a few missing. Did they just move up?

Based on who Sagarin has in 1-AA, I think the following teams should be in 1-AA: Coastal Carolina, Cornell, Missouri State, North Dakota State, Northern Colorado, SE Louisiana, South Dakota State, and Texas State. I did not spend very long checking to see if those teams are listed under a slightly different name, however.
 
Originally posted by: sciencewhiz
Originally posted by: JohnCU
Why don't you have Coastal Carolina in your 1AA?
Click to expand...

Looks like there are a few missing. Did they just move up?

Based on who Sagarin has in 1-AA, I think the following teams should be in 1-AA: Coastal Carolina, Cornell, Missouri State, North Dakota State, Northern Colorado, SE Louisiana, South Dakota State, and Texas State. I did not spend very long checking to see if those teams are listed under a slightly different name, however.
Click to expand...

They are 2-0 in the Big South, 6-1 all. They won it last year. They definitely need to be in there.
 
Originally posted by: dullard
Originally posted by: Mojoed
IF BC beats VT in two days, anyone have any speculations as to where that would rank BC next week?
Click to expand...
Well, I just ran that test in my program. I pretended that BC won by 7. For the most part, only BC and VT moved in the ratings, no other team was greatly affected. Net effect: VT dropped in the win ratings from #3 to #9, BC rose in the win ratings from #14 to #10.

Of course, a bigger than 7 point win may put BC over VT in my program. Other BCS computers, especially Sagarin, behave similar to mine.
Click to expand...

dullard for ELI... Oh wait.

Nifty little program you have. Thanks for the information. 🙂
 
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